In this preview I will give you my predictions for the regular season as well as a season outlook on every team including some relevant fantasy players on each team that you should take note of. I will be posting The Knurve’s predictions by division, so if you want to go straight to a division of interest, click on the right side under March and you can find that division.
So, without further due HERE is The Knurve’s comprehensive season preview:
NL West
Predicting the National League West is a little like predicting the next stupid thing Charlie Sheen is going to say: you don’t really care that much, but you have to take note of it. Were the San Francisco Giants the best team in baseball last year? Probably not. Were they good enough to win a World Series? Absolutely. The fact of the matter is that baseball is played a little differently out west in the National League because the offenses aren’t prolific and the pitching HAS to be good. Evaluating a team in this division and in the NL involves a little more stringent breakdown of the pitching staffs, because that is what wins this division.
5. San Diego Padres
Let’s go ahead and just get these guys out of the way. I feel bad for this team, I really do. They are a small market team that doesn’t generate the revenue to keep their hometown hero around. They are young, they are inexperienced, they are unproven. As a whole, I have little faith in this team’s offense. The loss of Adrian Gonzalez is pretty rough, but replacing him with Brad Hawpe doesn’t help matters too much. I like the additions of Orlando Hudson and Jason Bartlett, but I just don’t think those guys provide the pop or upside to bring enough wins for this team to be competitive. All that being said, Chase Headley is left with a daunting task of batting 3rd, which I think will be too tall a task for him. They are taking a flier on Cameron Maybin, who will be solid defensively for them, but as a whole this offensive unit could be in for a long year.
The facts are simple: if you pitch in PETCO, you are a good pitcher. It will be interesting to see how young Mat Latos responds in his second full season after seeing the workload increase he did last year. Clayton Richard, Wade LeBlanc and Tim Stauffer will all be solid as a result of pitching most of their games in PETCO, but I can’t see them being strong enough throughout the whole season. A lot of the NL West deals with timely hitting, and even though these pitchers aren’t terrible, they can be susceptible to the timely hit. That being said, I’m curious to see how Aaron Harang responds to PETCO after pitching for years in the bandbox known as the Great American Smallpark. They Padres starters held the lowest ERA in the majors for a lot of last year and I can honestly see that continuing this year, but when your offense is this bad, it’s hard to consistently pull out wins. The bullpen is great. Mike Adams and Luke Gregerson handing off to Heath Bell will surely help this team tremendously. But with the plethora of rumors surrounding Heath Bell being traded, it’s certainly not going to help matters when one of those two or Chad Qualls is closing games for the Padres.
Fantasy Outlook:
Offensively, there’s really nobody on this team I’m gung-ho about. Ryan Ludwick will probably get those 20 homers at a pretty solid discount, Will Venable could be a good source of cheap speed if he can figure out how to hit the ball. Jason Bartlett is used to playing in pitchers parks, so if he can return to his 2009 form at all that will help owners, but he’s not a guy that you’re going to draft. I bought into the Chase Headley hype when he was a young prospect, but I don’t know if his major league ceiling goes much higher than a 20-15 season with a solid batting average. I don’t think he’ll get there this year, though. The final noteworthy offensive player for the Pads is Cameron Maybin. Maybe he needed a change of scenery, and he’s certainly an outfielder that I’d keep an eye on, but it’s looking more and more like he’s going to be a bust. If you’re the Marlins, it’s either tough to let a guy like Maybin go because you gave up Miggy for him, but that decision can be easy if you think Maybin is really bad. Maybe Cameron Maybin’s just really bad.
It’s always a good idea to start a Padres pitcher at PETCO. Keep that in mind for spot starts as you may need them, but I don’t think any of their starters should be drafted outside of Latos. If I were to have to pick a guy in the rotation besides Latos that I am optimistic about, it’s probably Stauffer. He always killed it as a reliever, and I think the move to the rotation could be good for him. He got a few spot starts for the Pads last year and performed exceptionally well in them, so I will be keeping an eye out for him as a replacement for a starter who struggles in April. It’s hard to predict the season Heath Bell will have with such a bad offense and the likelihood that he gets traded, but he’s obviously a great option for an elite closer.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
It’s sort of hard for me to pick the Diamondbacks to finish 4th in this division, because I think they are a great team who has done the proper patchwork to their bullpen to be more successful in their division. Their offense might be the strongest in the division, but I still think their rotation and pitching need a little work. They are relying on some pretty unreliable names to win them games and I worry that it might fall flat on their face. They still have the worst pitching staff in this division from top to bottom, but I think they have made a few critical additions that will make them more successful than they were last year.
Stephen Drew, Justin Upton, Kelly Johnson, Chris Young and Miguel Montero are all good hitters who I expect to perform again this season like they did last year. This team will certainly miss Adam LaRoche, but Melvin Mora is pretty solid defensively, and if Montero is healthy for the whole year, he will certainly help the D-back’s efforts.
I mentioned the lack of reliability of this rotation and I don’t think that’s to be overstated. Daniel Hudson showed much promise last year and has been a great prospect. Joe Saunders, Ian Kennedy, Armando Gallaraga and Barry Enright are all good, but not great. Good enough to beat the Padres and probably the Dodgers offense, but not great enough to outpitch the Giants or Rockies.
Fantasy Outlook:
Let’s start with Justin Upton. I just read something that said his shoulder might not be completely healthy and if he tries to over swing like he did last year, he could be in trouble. Shoulders are a big problem when it comes to power (just ask his brother). All this being said, I’m a little worried about Upton’s prospects for this season. Part of me loves Justin Upton and wants to see him perform, but the other part of me thinks he may still be hurt and won’t show us this year what he’s fully capable of. I think Kelly Johnson benefitted greatly by playing in Chase Field and he could be a great source of 20-homer power from the keystone. I think this is the year for Stephen Drew. I just have one of those feelings that he will go 20-15 and hit .280 so long as th e people around him stay healthy, which isn’t a given. Chris Young should turn in another 20-20 performance but may hurt your team’s batting average. It’s always hard to find good options at catcher, and I think Miguel Montero has great potential. He‘s slipped through the cracks a little big because of his injury last season, but I think he could be due for a solid season and will be a great value pick.
You know your team might not be that great when your best fantasy option is one guy who is all upside. I think Daniel Hudson could turn a solid year in for his first full season, but there isn’t a whole heck of a lot of upside behind him. Enright showed stretches of goodness last year, Gallaraga pitches heavily to his defense when he may not be in the ballparks to do so in the NL West. I really like J.J. Putz at the back end of the bullpen. He will keep the job the whole year, and I like his prospects of converting most of his opportunities.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
The past few years for the Dodgers have been the offensive class of the NL West, but this year, it’s going to be their pitching that keeps them competitive. When you look at this starting rotation, they mix exciting youth with calming experience. The offense was not very great last year without Manny and they’re replacing Manny, Russell Martin, and Orlando Hudson with Jay Gibbons, Rod Barajas, and Juan Uribe. My concerns about this offense are big, but I expect Matt Kemp to bounce back and have a great year, and Furcal is still elite if he can stay healthy, which is obviously not a given as he approaches his mid-30’s. There are certainly questions about Casey Blake’s production value and James Loney’s ability to get big hits. But I truly believe Andre Ethier’s struggles in the 2nd half relative to the first half were because his finger never fully recovered, but I expect him to do big things for the Dodgers this year.
I’m going to go ahead and say it: Ted Lilly might be the most underrated pitcher in the majors. He is as consistent as they come, he can strike guys out, he allows practically no base runners, and he knows the meaning of damage-control when he does allow base runners. When you combine a consistent Lilly with a consistent Hiroki Kuroda you have a great back end of a rotation. When you look at the front end of that rotation in Billingsley and member of the tribe Clayton Kershaw, I think this rotation will certainly make some noise in this division. The bullpen is also solid. Kuo is one of the strongest setup men in the league and Broxton is a big hulking closer who, despite showing that he was human last year, is a solid pitcher. Other guys in that bullpen like Troncoso, Guerrier and Jansen are all solid enough to keep them in games with the amount of close games this team will hand them.
Fantasy Outlook:
I have mentioned that Matt Kemp will certainly be a great rebound candidate and since he is going in the mid 2nd to mid 3rd round, he is going to be a cheaper value that will help your team tremendously. I fully expect numbers close to 30-30 and I want to know what, if any, motivation he plays in the sexual nature of his girlfriend Rihanna’s songs. Ethier is the next obvious guy to discuss. I have belabored the lack of depth in the outfield discussion, and Ethier will be dominant this season if he’s healthy. I don’t see him hitting the .320+ he was knocking before his injury last year, but if he sticks around .290 and hits 30ish homers this year, it’ll be a great success. Rafa Furcal is the last notable offensive player to talk about. I want to assume health and I want guys like Furcal to stay healthy, because it lets us see their full potential. I want to see Furcal go 15-25 with a great batting average, and that’s certainly what he’s capable of if he’s healthy, but his inability to stay healthy has depressed his value too much.
I can see this rotation’s top four being solid contributors in fantasy this year. They can all strike batters out and they all have great potential and a history of strong track records. When you look at starting iptching, the track record is the most important thing, and I predict great seasons for all four of those guys; sub-4ERA’s across the board and all with 150+K’s.
2. Colorado Rockies
I have really struggled with whether or not I think this team will finish 1st or 2nd in this division. A close look at this team, and you’ll see that they’re just not as strong on the rubber as the Giants are. The offensive numbers are bloated because they play in Coors Field and the Rockies will be relying heavily on guys like Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki to keep this offense moving. I don’t know if that’s a good thing, but I think there’s something to be said for a healthy Todd Helton, who has always been a strong timely hitter for the Rockies. I have my concerns about the youth on this team, but many people have had these same worries and these young hitters really know how to turn it on, especially in the 2nd half. This offense reminds me a lot of the NL version of the Twins in that they have a handful of guys who don’t get a lot of attention, but continue to help this team win games. Ian Stewart, Ryan Spilborghs and Seth Smith are those guys who continually produce for this team and help them win games.
If De La Rosa is healthy, Ubaldo can do even 2/3rds of what he did last season then this team will be great. I love love love love Jhoulys Chacin this year. He is one of my biggest fantasy sleepers and he is a dominant shutdown strikeout pitcher who I think everybody needs to keep an eye on. Jason Hammel is the 4th guy in this rotation and he’s just one of those guys who always pitches as well as the Rockies are hitting. The bullpen is also solid, especially with the addition of Matt Lindstrom. Lindstrom, Rafael Betancourt and Matt Belisle are all solid bullpen guys who will certainly outman some of the weaker offenses in this division. Huston Street is one of those guys I’ve always loved, but he’s struggled with his health in the past few years. If Street is healthy, it truly solidifies this bullpen as one that can take this team far.
Fantasy Outlook:
Ubaldo and Carlos Gonzalez both got extremely lucky last year. I said it. Both had extreme fortune, and from a fantasy perspective it’s hard to call a pitcher “elite” when he pitches at Coors, you have to be realistic. The fact that starting is so deep is a testament to the fact that Ubaldo is being drafted so late in many drafts already. To be perfectly honest, I see Jhoulys Chacin as being almost as good a pitcher as Ubaldo and look for Chacin to have similar numbers by season’s end. Carlos Gonzalez is simply NOT the best outfielder in this league, and I think that will shine through this season. I would not draft him. Ian Stewart will be a great power source from the hot corner if you can stomach the batting average hit he might provide. The other player of note here is Dexter Fowler. Fowler seemed to get it together at times in the 2nd half last year, and it looks like he’s going to have the leadoff spot the whole season. He has a great ability to hit for power, he can take walks, and he is a switch hitter, there’s a lot to like here. He could be a surprise candidate to go 10-30 or even higher if things fall into place for him.
I have talked about Ubaldo and Chacin, but I think De La Rosa will be the worst of the three and not a huge fantay contributor this season. I think he’s got potential to keep the Rockies in a lot of games, but I worry that he won’t be a formidable fantasy contributor.
1.San Francisco Giants
This is not the most talented team in the bigs, but last September and October they certainly were the best. If you are a constant reader of the blog, you’ll know that I projected this team to erase their 6 game deficit and take down the NL West, which is exactly what they did on the last day of the regular season. A look at the hitting, and it’s nothing to be overly concerned about. But a look at this pitching staff, and I think it’s right alongside the Phillies. WHAT!?!?! DID DAVID KAPLAN JUST SAY THAT?!?!?! I did and I feel very confident about it. It’s the exact reason I picked the Giants to win the NL last year and all the Phillies fans cried foul. I
I think Pat the Bat will be back to hit 25 homers for this team. I think the acquisition of Miguel Tejada is a perfect replacement for Uribe, Freddy Sanchez knows how to hit, Andres Torres is an intriguing leadoff switch-hitter, Aubrey Huff is going to have another monster year, and then there’s Buster. The best offense in this division is the one who knows how to get hits when they need them, and the experience this team gained in doing just that last October will help them win the division again this year.
Lincecum is a stud, Sanchez is a stud, Cain is a stud, Bumgarner is sort of a stud, and Barry Zito’s pretty good. That’s the most complete rotation in the majors and there’s no doubt about it. There aren’t any health problems with these guys, there are no innings issues with these guys other than Bumgarner, and they are all sexy and fearsome dudes. Then look at this bullpen and see Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt, Santiago Casilla and Ramon Ramirez and it’s an exciting and dangerous concoction of men in order to get the ball to the ultimate man, Brian Wilson. I fear the beard.
Fantasy Outlook:
Offensively, there’s not a ton here. I like Aubrey Huff as a late fantasy first baseman option. If he can hit for some semblance of what he did last year, I like him as a great value play either in your utility spot or as your 2nd first baseman. Andres Torres was a great pickup for a lot of people including myself and I think he could prove to be a solid speed-power option for many owners. I talked about how much I like Fowler and let there be no mistaking that Fowler’s upside is on a whole other level than Torres. Buster Posey is going to be great this season, and I think he should be taken off the board before Mauer at catcher. I love me some Buster.
In short, I would take all of these starters in a heartbeat if the price was right. They all pitch in a great pitchers park, they all have great strikeout potential, and they all know how to keep their composure. The biggest indicator of good pitching for me is damage control, and all these guys know how to pitch with runners in base and in high pressure situations. Brian Wilson is obviously a strong closer. This team plays in a lot of 3-2 and 2-1 games, but always comes out on the right side of them. Given the emphasis on pitching now, especially in the NL, I think this team could very much repeat as World Champions.
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