The Knurve's Draft Day Manifesto

It’s the day all of us fantasy players get really nervous about: Draft Day.

We may or may not do about 100 mocks a day to see what some of the trends are, we may or may not listen to or read one source on a particular player because that source will tell you exactly what you want to hear (if you want to hear how Francisco Liriano will be a Cy Young pitcher, then listen to ESPN’s Matthew Berry), and we may or may not simply pray.

I am feeling pretty optimistic about my draft day strategy and there are a few simple things I have isolated as key things to remember when you make those 20-25 all-important clicks of the mouse.

1. Wait On Pitching
I tweeted this a little while back @DavidHessKaplan (#shamelessplug), but starting pitching is by far the deepest position in fantasy baseball this year, and it’s not even close. Last year was the year of the pitcher and who knows if the hitters will make a comeback this year, I’m not completely optimistic they will. The amount of depth is staggering. Not too much separates the top 10 or 15 in terms of value. The difference between Halladay and a pitcher like Clayton Kershaw is noticeable, but if you look at where these guys are being drafted, I don’t know if they’re 3 rounds of value apart. Then if you take a step down to the next tier who are you left with? The Cain’s, Gallardo’s, and Marcum’s of the world.

The discrepancies between the top pitchers are much smaller than it was in past years. I can’t argue with taking an elite pitcher in round 1 thru 4, but I wouldn’t take more than one in the first four or five rounds. You can still wait on them and put together a very good and more importantly a risk-averse staff. The top 40 starters have track records. When you have guys in the 30’s like Brett Myers and Phil Hughes, I think you can still be pretty happy with the arms you throw out.

2. Draft Power From the Infield Out
This is going to be one of the biggest challenges facing fantasy owners this spring when choosing their team. All of us have heard plenty of times how deep 1st base is, so make sure you are getting phenomenal production from that spot. There are so many elite power options that should certainly be prioritized in order to maximize your teams power-potential. I’m even exploring taking a first baseman with my first two picks and playing one of them at the CI/UTIL spot. I clearly didn’t take them 1-2, but I firmly believe the main reason I won my biggest league last year was because I had both Adam Dunn and Carlos Pena.

That being said, remember that the outfield power options are not that plethoric. Between Braun, Kemp, Granderson, Bautista, CarGo, Justin Upton, Mike Stanton, Heyward and a few others, there isn’t too much potential there. I think this is the year to overdraft on some of the infield guys that you know will give you some pop. Giving preferential treatment to guys with pop will help you out a whole lot this season. It’s for this reason I’m not touching a guy like Joe Mauer. I would much rather give away batting average when guys like McCann, V-Mart and Posey will give you better pop and none of those guys will kill your average. A guy like Arencibia will hurt you in batting average, but his run production on a decent Jays offense could make you less angry about his contact problems.

I’m certainly not meaning to imply that short stop or second are deep power positions, but I would target guys at those positions that will give you some of the counting stats. Theoretically, if you follow this manifesto, you would be taking a guy like Dan Uggla (Uggla is Swedish for ‘owl’ by the way) earlier where you’d be taking a Kershaw to bolster your pitching staff.

3. Speed is More Plentiful than Ever, So Don’t Overpay
Do not draft Ichiro Suzuki.
Do not get pissed if you don’t get Michael Bourn.
You’re going to be fine.

Speed is absolutely everywhere this year, especially in the outfield, which is why I say to try and focus your power-searching on the infield. There are a decent amount of power-speed combo’s that are both reliable and great performers. I think Kemp will bounce back in a big way, I think McCutchen has 20/40 potential, obviously Crawford is going to be a beast, Granderson had a great 2nd half after messing with his mechanics during the All-Star break, Heyward will be exciting, yada yada yada.

Don’t overlook that cheap speed either. I am very excited about the season Rajai Davis is about to have for the Jays. He will bat leadoff in a hitter-friendly ballpark with bats like Bautista, Hill, and Arencibia behind him instead of Cust, Barton, and Cliff Pennington (who I like as a SS sleeper). Also look at Ellsbury to have a big year. I am extremely optimistic that he will go right back to being an elite player given the unlucky year he had with injuries as well as the lineup around him to hide his flaws both as a hitter and person (that was a joke).

OK, that’s it. Short but sweet. I will be following these guidelines and am very optimistic about this season. I also caution to go with consistent performers. I am staying away from Carlos Gonzalez. The reason I’m so about consistent performers, especially this year, is because there isn’t as much talent this year coming out of the minors as a whole. I don’t think you’re going to find any quick fixes on offense unless you make trades.

Good luck on Draft Day!