AL West Preview...

AL West
It’s a pretty well known fact to people on the east coast that this division, the smallest in baseball, doesn’t get a whole lot of attention. The Mariners weren’t that great last year, the A’s never get a whole lot of attention, the Angels might be on their way down, and the Rangers are on their way up. I am expecting the status quo to remain in this division.

4. Oakland Athletics

When I started to write this AL West preview, I began to write the Mariners into the 4th spot in this division, but I truly feel their offense has made great strides with some of their offseason acquisitions. Then I looked at the A’s offense and threw up in my mouth a little bit because it was so terrible. The Athletics offense could be the new Mariners offense because of how bad it truly is. That’s not to say the pitching isn’t great or can’t be great, but from top to bottom, this offense just doesn’t scare anybody. The A’s are all hopped up on getting Hideki Matsui and Josh Willingham, but who really cares? Guys like Mark Ellis, David DeJesus, Cliff Pennington, and Kevin Kouzmanoff aren’t top-notch offensive guys who play in a terrible hitters park. That’s not to say I don’t like some of those guys for fantasy this season, but I can’t see this offense putting it together enough to win a ton of games.

The reason I still think this is a 75-win team despite the terrible offense is the strong pitching staff. They have a lot of young and skillful arms between Braden, Gonzalez, Cahill and Brett Anderson and a solid bullpen with Andrew Bailey, Brian Fuentes, Michael Wuertz, and Grant Balfour. The bullpen is extremely strong with solid and consistent performers. My worry is that they are too young and not healthy enough to each start 30+ games. I look at the rotation and in a lot of ways, they are, as my father would say, GBNG (good, but not great).

Fantasy Outlook:
There’s not a whole heck of a lot of studs on this team. Crisp could be a great source of cheap speed, Pennington could be a solid shortstop option if you’ve gotten to the end of your draft or auction and don’t have a shortstop yet, Willingham was fantastic on the Nationals but he doesn’t have the supporting cast around him to be great. DeJesus could be a solid value pick, but I don’t project anything huge for him offensively.

If Andrew Bailey is healthy, he’s obviously the strongest pitcher on this staff. But a look at the rotation will show you that Cahill got a little lucky last year with his BABIP and he struggled against some of the better teams. I loved Cahill last year, but I don’t think you can expect another sub-3 ERA from him. The main question with Brett Anderson is his health, but if he’s healthy I like him to be one of the best pitchers in this division behind Felix and Weaver. Dallas Braden got a lot of attention for his perfect game, but I worry people will still get caught up in that hype this year. He was never rated a highly prospect and if you look at his numbers last year, they weren’t anything too special. Gio Gonzalez is extremely intriguing. His home-road splits were pretty remarkable, and I tend to like guys like that at the right price.

3. Seattle Mariners

There is absolutely no way that this team will be as bad this year as they were last year…at least I hope so. The supporting cast behind Ichiro and King Felix just wasn’t there last year and their putridity on offense was astounding. I do not think this offense will be as bad as they were last year assuming Milton Bradley can keep his head on his shoulders. I do like the acquisitions of Miguel Olivo and Jack Cust for this team, but I don’t see Justin Smoak producing the way the Mariners expect, and Franklin Gutierrez just isn’t near as strong offensively as he is defensively. I do like Figgins to bounce back after a somewhat disappointing campaign last year and generally I think this offense is much stronger, which is why I picked them 3rd instead of the 4th I originally had them as.

The pitching is certainly something to be intrigued by. The reigning Cy Young winner with only 12 wins, King Felix is going to have another fantastic year and if Bedard can somehow manage to stay healthy, that is a solid 1-2. I also think Jason Vargas and Doug Fister are good enough to keep this team in some games. I have some concerns about the bullpen, but they do have some solid experience in the pen with Brandon League, Chris Ray, Manny Delcarman and Aaron Laffey. This isn’t a sexy pitching staff, but I certainly think it’s good enough to compete in this division.

Fantasy Outlook:
There’s not a whole heck of a lot here outside Ichiro, and even he is over-valued. Speed is so plentiful and he may not even run as much as you’d like him to this season. I certainly think Ichiro will score more runs this year, and has a few more threats to bring him home this year, but I don’t know if he’s going to be a top-10 outfielder by the end of the season. I’m very optimistic about Chone Figgins this season, though. He started getting his life together as the season went on and I think he could see a slight bump in production. With Figgins’ value a little lower this year, he could be a great source of infield speed later in your draft or for cheaper in your auction. Much of my pick of the Mariners finishing 3rd is predicated on Milton Bradley playing the whole season. Granted that’s an extremely optimistic assumption, I want to believe that Bradley will be a great player who provides great value. Jack Cust is another player I’ve always kept my eye on as a very cheap, very late power source. Playing in Safeco instead of the cavernous Athletics Stadium will help Cust tremendously.

The pitching staff isn’t too fantastic outside of King Felix, but I am pretty sure many of you already knew that. Erik Bedard is one of those guys who I would take a flier on at the end of your draft. If he’s healthy, he’s got such phenomenal strikeout potential and I think he could win a fantasy season for many teams. Fister and Vargas were nice plays at times last year, but I can’t see them being draft-able. Depending on the size of your league, these are two guys that you can look to spot-start, but they don’t have the upside to make your team like Bedard.

2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Just as I like Ron Gardenhire, I think Mike Scocia is a dude who knows how to win ballgames. I struggled more than I thought I would deciding between the Rangers and the Angles, but I think the Rangers just have more offense and a solid enough bullpen. But I REALLY like this Angels team. They have a solid combination of speed and power and guys who know how to get on base. I think the contest between the Rangers and Angels come September will be fun to watch because they both have a good amount of legit weapons, but I don’t think the Angels offense will be enough to put them over the top. I expect Kendry Morales to be a big contributor this season, but I just don’t’ see the rest of the team being solid enough to win this team a championship despite winning a lot of games. The difference between a phenomenal team and a terrible team in this league is usually 20 wins, and I don’t think this offense is good enough to get the wins necessary. Have I belabored the fact that I am legitimizing picking the Rangers first because their offense is better?

The Angels pitching staff has a lot of great things going for it. Jered Weaver will have another great year and Dan Haren should be solid. The last three have track records of solidness, but I worry about their consistency. Scott Kazmir doesn’t scare people anymore, and Ervin Santana and Joel Piniero aren’t great threats. However, Piniero was solid last year and I expect him to be solid again this year. This bullpen is also very dynamic. They have the experience in guys like Fernando Rodney and Scott Downs, and the youth in Kevin Jepsen and Jordan Walden are going to be great this season. I think both those young guys are due for huge seasons in that bullpen.

Fantasy Outlook:
Kendry Morales isn’t getting a whole lot of attention so far this spring, and I really like that because he’s going to be absolutely fantastic this season. Before the freak accident which ended his season last year, he was tearing the cover off the ball and I expect him to continue doing that this season. There are so many solid options on this team like Torii Hunter, Erick Aybar, Bobby Abreu and Howie Kendrick that will all have strong seasons. I really like all those guys to have fantastic fantasy seasons.

The pitching staff is also pretty intriguing to me. I don’t know if Jered Weaver is capable of putting together another season like he had last year, but I like the 1-2 punch of him and Dan Haren and think they are a tandem to be feared. Haren will never be as good as he was in Arizona because the move to the AL will hurt him, but I still think he’ll be a good pick. Ervin Santana is one of those high upside guys that could also be a great value if you get him at the right price. In the bullpen, I don’t trust Fernando Rodney. I don’t think Scott Downs will become the closer should Rodney struggle, but I’d keep an eye out for Kevin Jepsen.

1.Texas Rangers


What’s not to like about this offense? I really like the addition of Adrian Beltre, I love Elvis, I love Kinsler, I love Michael Young, I love Nelson Cruz, hell I even love Mitch Moreland. Oh yeah, and I forgot to mention that guy who won the AL MVP last year, Josh Hamilton. The main issue with this offense is health. I can see this team falling apart due to injury, but I hate assuming injuries so I’m going to pick them first. I look this team as being the most complete offense in a hitter-friendly ballpark with so many weapons that they are to be feared.

The pitching is certainly weaker than the hitting, but I think they have four guys that are solid enough in Wilson, Lewis, Hunter and Holland. If Brandon Webb somehow returns to his old self, this rotation could just be a bunch of solid guys who know how to win games. And if Neftali Feliz ends up starting, then that could also be extremely helpful. Relievers can have success moving to the rotation, look no farther than teammate C.J. Wilson who had a very successful year last season. The 3 O’s in the bullpen are also very attractive bullpen options for Ron Washington: Ogando, O’Day, and Oliver all had very good seasons and I expect them to keep the Rangers in many games this year.

Fantasy Outlook:
Josh Hamilton will always be an injury risk, and he will not hit over .360 again this season, but he will be one of the best fantasy outfielders this season. I don’t need to sing his praises even more than most people do, but he’s a special player and will be worth the mid 2nd-round pick you spend on him. Nelson Cruz is also another sexy fantasy option this year. The potential for him to go 35-20 is so intriguing because he just doesn’t’ look like someone who has that potential. He gets the job done and if he can keep those legs healthy, he could end up a better fantasy player than Hamilton. Kinsler has been ripping it up this spring, and I think he will continue that into the regular season. In my draft day manifesto, I said to get power in the infield, and Kinsler is one of those guys I was talking about. Elvis Andrus is another great speed source at a shallow position. Adrian Beltre is another power guy from the infield on this team who will put up monster numbers in such a hitter-friendly park. I can’t go into the depth I want about the amount of fantasy studs on this team because I don’t have the time, and I want to take a break from writing.
The pitching presence on this team is solid, but doesn’t have any fantastic fantasy options that you should look to take early in the draft. I have said that about a lot of guys in this league because I’m much bigger on the pitchers in the NL. However, I think Wilson will put together a solid fantasy season and will get a lot of run support. Same goes with all the starters on this team. If you’re looking for good sources of wins who won’t kill your team, I think Holland, Hunter, and Lewis are solid options who will not kill your team, but they don’t have a lot of upside. I really would like to see Feliz continue to close, because I think that’s where he’ll best suit the Rangers, but it’s looking like he’s going to start. But the bullpen is fantastic, especially with the addition of Arthur Rhodes from the Reds to accompany the 3 O’s.