NL Central Preview...

NL Central
I foresee some big changes coming again to the Majors’ largest division. There are some certainties, though, like the fact that the Pittsburgh Pirates will probably come in last place. However, I think some new acquisitions by one team has put them ahead of the rest.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pittsburgh Pirates will not lose 100 games this year. Losing 100 is pretty darn tough to do, but leave it to the Pirates to figure out how to do it. I feel extremely confident that this team will be better because their youth got a lot of experience under their belts last season, and I think the pitching is much better than it was last year. The Bucs brought in a few hitters like Garret Atkins, Matt Diaz and Lyle Overbay who will surely help a little (not a lot). But some of the pitching acquisitions the Pirates made will make them a much better ballclub.

There really is a lot to like between Neil Walker, Jose Tabata, Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutchen. These guys will be the first four that opposing pitchers see every game. Between those four, there’s a little speed, a little pop and a lot of talent. I really like this young nucleus of players. The main problem with this team is whoever’s hitting 5-9. The rest of the team will struggle to keep pace with these four, who I see having solid seasons at the dish.

I like the acquisitions of Scott Olsen and Kevin Correia for the Pirates, but let’s be realistic when we say that these guys are simply not good enough to make the team legitimately competitive. Maholm and Ohlendorf are not very good, and James McDonald is very young and unproven, but has great upside. The bullpen is probably the best thing the Pirates have going for them. I am a big believer in Joel Hanrahan closing games, and All-Star Evan Meek is a legitimate setup man who could make big moves for the closer spot should Hanrahan struggle. Joe Beimel is also a great lefty specialist who I think will single-handedly win at least 5 games because he can get Prince Fielder and Joey Votto out. The Pirates didn’t have a bullpen guy that could get those lefties out last year.

Fantasy Outlook:
McCutchen is the obvious first name to talk about here. I’ve watched a few of his games, and he might be the most exciting player in this division. He’s lightning fast, he can hit for power, and he’s got that cool little dreadlock ponytail that he rocks. I like him a lot as a top 10 outfielder because he truly does a little bit of everything. When he leaves the Pirates in a few years he’ll be making his weight in gold because he’s THAT good. He’s one of those guys I definitely want to target this season because he not only gives you that great speed in the outfield that I talked about in my draft day manifesto, but he also has 20 home run potential. I look at Neil Walker as having a lot of potential in this league. He hits for average, he’s got a little bit of pop, and he’s a switch hitter. I really like him as a very cheap 2nd base option who won’t hurt you at all. Pedro Alvarez is going pretty high in drafts, and I know exactly why. He can give you that elite power you desire. He may not drive in as many runs as someone like A-Rod, who has an infinitely better lineup around him, but I like Alvarez to put up similar numbers in all the other counting stats. I worry a little bit about Alvarez’s batting average risk, but if he hits 30 homers, he will be 20 times more valuable to you than a Mark Reynolds would be. The other guy I have to mention is Jose Tabata. Tabata will probably lead off for this team, and I can see him doing a lot of damage on the base paths. Remember what I said about cheap speed and drafting power from the infield out, guys like Tabata are the exact reason why.

Correia, McDonald and Olsen are all guys I’m not going to draft, but I’m going to keep an eye on. I think all of these guys have great potential if they’re healthy. It’s going to be interesting to see: how Correia does away from PETCO, McDonald handles his inexperience, and how Olsen’s health issues are maintained. Overall, there could be value here, but only in deeper leagues at this point. I really like Hanrahan as the closer of this team, and Meek is obviously a handcuff you’d want to keep an eye on.

5. Houston Astros
Quite frankly, this offense is atrocious. I’ve always been a huge fan of Hunter Pence and I think Carlos Lee will pick it back up this season. But outside of those two, this team just isn’t capable of making any noise this season. This team reminds me a lot of Bobby Hurley: parts of what they do are solid, but when push comes to shove, they’re just not great players. Offensively, this team will struggle depending on guys like Clint Barmes and Bill Hall. It’s very possible that great prospects Brett Wallace and Chris Johnson can put together solid seasons, which would propel this team to 4th or 3rd place; however, I just don’t see it this year. Pence is fantastic, and I think I love him because he’s just the goofiest looking player on the field, but plays so hard and so well.

On the mound, this rotation has some potential, but for the most part, their rotation is so hot and cold. Brett Myers was sensational last season, and I look for him to anchor this rotation, but Wandy Rodriguez is a guy I’ve never fully trusted, especially on the road. Bud Norris, Nelson Figueroa and J.A. Happ round out this rotation. I don’t want to overestimate this rotation’s potential because I can see them being successful, I just don’t think they’re all going to put it together enough this year to win the necessary amount of games. The bullpen is also pretty bad. Brandon Lyon is going to be solid closing games out, but the youth and inexperience of the rest of this bullpen will certainly blow a lot of good starts for this anemic rotation.

Fantasy Outlook:
Hunter Pence is the obvious name to look at here. He is one of those guys who you will draft and fall in love with immediately because of all he does for your squad. He steals bases, he has nice pop, and he does it all with a good average. In a shallow outfield, the potential 25-15 season Pence puts up will help your team tremendously. Carlos Lee’s 1st base eligibility will certainly help his value in case you decide to wait on power there. Lee is one of those guys who I can see turning in a solid season. I want to think something was terribly wrong last year that made his batting average dip so low. If he can somehow rebound to .275 and equal the counting numbers he posted last year, he’ll be a top 25 outfielder and top 15 first baseman, so he’s a guy I’m looking out for. I want to caution readers about Michael Bourn. Speed is obviously deep in the outfield this season, but I don’t know if he’s worth the price he’s being valued at right now because he could KILL your batting average. In my opinion, find your speed elsewhere with guys like Jose Tabata who may not steal 50, but won’t kill your batting average either.
When you look at this rotation, there’s a lot of potential. Brett Myers and Wandy Rodriguez will be the main names to look at, and I like Myers a whole heck of a lot better for this season. He’s so skilled and seems to have everything together, which is very exciting. I want to direct attention to Bud Norris. He’s one of those guys that you might not want to draft or bid on, but his strikeout potential is too great to just overlook. If he can figure out his control issues/damage control problems, then he could have ace potential. It seems like these strikeout guys figure out how to control everything eventually. He might still be a year away, but I like the strides he might make this year. He is a Brandon Morrow-lite. Brandon Lyon is another solid, cheap closer option who I can see having a pretty good year, but nothing to write home about. He will keep his job the whole season if that means anything to anybody.

4. St. Louis Cardinals
I spent a very long time looking at this team relative to the Cubs, and I wrote the Cubs into fourth place originally. But the more I look at the Cubs as a unit and the more I look at the Cardinals as a unit, the Cubs are just better. The loss of Adam Wainwright is going to be too big to absorb for this team. I know they have Albert Pujols, and obviously there’s a lot to be said about his presence, but he just doesn’t have the surrounding cast offensively outside of Holliday to make this team overly competitive. I still think they’re capable of finishing as a .500 ballclub, but as a whole this offense just might not be good enough. The reason they couldn’t compete last year was because of their offensive weaknesses and I don’t see Lance in my pants Berkman as the be-all end-all to this teams problems. If Rasmus has another solid year, that could propel this team into 3rd, but I just don’t see it. Skip Schumaker and David Freese are weak links in this offense. I think this offense is certainly good enough to keep this team afloat, but the rotation will kill them.

I rode the Jaime Garcia bandwagon all last season. But in looking at him as the 2nd starter with a whole heck of a lot more pressure and coming off the season AFTER his Tommy John, I worry about him. He could surprise me with a solid year as he did all of last year, but I just don’t think he’s a number 2 at all and if he’s not clicking, I worry about 3-5. Injury is always a risk with Carpenter, so if he has any glitches in the system, and he’s had a few this spring, then there could be some more trouble brewing with this rotation. Jake Westbrook, Kyle McClellan and Kyle Lohse just don’t do it for me. The biggest X-Factor for this team will certainly be Dave Duncan. He’s a pitching coach who knows how to coach pitchers more so than many coaches in this league. I just don’t know if the talent is there. The bullpen is certainly there, though. I like Motte, Boggs, and Miller handing the ball to Franklin. It’s one of those bullpens that may not be overly sexy, but they certainly get the job done.

Fantasy Outlook:
I’m not going to waste my time by talking about Albert Pujols because he’s the best player in the world. Take him first if you have the first overall pick, but I’m staying away from him in auctions. Holliday is the more intriguing fantasy play for me. He’s a top 5 outfielder and someone who I really like to have a very strong season. I think Berkman still gets a little respect because of his name and his switch-hitting abilities, so Holliday will still see some solid pitches. He will also be more apt to steal bases since Berkman won’t be able to get that many hits. All-in-all, I think the concoction is right for Holliday to have a strong fantasy season and I expect him to deliver in a big way. Rasmus is the other guy to take a look at. I’m thinking he’s more the 2nd half player, not the 1st half player from last year. Keep that in mind when you draft him. If he’s a guy that falls, and I can see that happening, then pounce, but don’t be that guy in your league that reaches for Colby Rasmus, I think he’ll let you down. The other guy I want to talk about is Ryan Theriot. He always delivers, and will be a solid late round short-stop pickup for many teams.

Outside of Carpenter, I have made it clear I have little faith in the rest of this rotation. Could they all be viable options? Certainly. Do I think they’ll be viable fantasy options? No. I am very pessimistic about this pitching staff’s prospects for the year. I don’t know why I’m as down on the Cards, but I just worry that this rotation’s pitching woes could be scary. The outlook for Carpenter is good, but I just don’t see it from the rest of these guys. I like Franklin as a good value closer in the middle-late rounds, so keep an eye on him if you’re in the hunt for a 1st or 2nd closer.

3. Chicago Cubs
I spent a lot of time looking at the Cubbies roster and asking myself if I really thought they could be better than the Cardinals this year. I looked and I looked and I thought and I thought, and I just couldn’t decide. So I needed to find that one thing that put the Cubs over the top, that one x-factor that would change my decision-making process. I decided that one thing that put them over the top was the acquisition of Matt Garza. I never really loved the guy in the AL East, but he still put up solid numbers in his Rays uniform. Looking at his career numbers now, it was silly of me to hate him, it was probably because I thought he was an overrated fantasy player, which he still may be. But he’s a pitcher who knows how to win games.

Offensively, I think this team has great potential and upside. There’s a big difference between an offense like this one which has some inconsistent performers with great upside and the Pirates who have inconsistent performers with not so much upside. This offense becomes a force to be reckoned with if Marlon Byrd, Starlin Castro, Alfonso Soriano, Geovanny Soto and Carlos Pena can find out how to click together. There is a good amount of upside with these guys, and I think that if two or three of them are clicking at a time, it forces opposing pitchers and teams to have to make some pretty difficult decisions. I have faith that this core of guys can put together a better offensive season than the Cardinals, but I also think they are capable of winning this division. Do I think they’ll play well enough to win this division or even taste the wildcard? No. But the offense is certainly there.

The pitching is certainly weaker than the top two teams in this division, but stronger than the bottom 3. With Ted Lilly on this team, I think this rotation is sort of scary, but the addition of Garza will really keep this team on the map when discussing their pitching staff. Carlos Zambrano was one of the best pitchers in baseball in the second half last season, and I have faith that he can return to the prominence he once had. The Cubs certainly think he’s worth a lot of money, and he definitely pitched like it last season. Behind him is Ryan Dempster, who struggled a little more in his second year as a starter, but I like him to have a good year for the Cubsters. Garza and Randy Wells provide a solid 3-4 in this division. Arch-nemesis Brad always like Randy Wells as a fantasy option, and this year I don’t, but I think he’s a solid pitcher who pitches to his defense. With Ramirez and Castro on the left side of that infield, and Byrd in Centerfield, that might not be a terrible thing. There are certainly some questions in the bullpen, I will most definitely concede that. But if Carlos Silva starts in the bullpen this season, he could be a solid long relief type guy should one of the starters like Andrew Cashner struggle. Former Notre Dame standout Jeff Samardzija hasn’t proven a lot as a reliever in the majors, but if he can get it together, then him, Sean Marshall, and Kerry Wood could be a solid bridge to Carlos Marmol.

Fantasy Outlook:
There are a lot of good value plays on this team. Ramirez will probably be the first fantasy player drafted from this team, and I look for him to be a good source of power from the hot corner. But if you take a look at guys like Byrd and Soriano, they can be good values from the outfield, and I certainly have faith that both those guys can put solid seasons together. Starlin Castro was pretty solid in the second half once he got acclimated to the majors, so I think he’s got great potential to make some noise at short with solid speed and a good batting average. Fukodome is one of those guys who’s a great baseball player but not a good fantasy player, I’d just stay away from him unless it’s late and you really think you need some batting average balance. Carlos Pena is a great value for me again this year, especially in OBP and OPS leagues. Sure he may hurt your batting average, but I think the power potential is great. The middle of this lineup is sort of meaty when you look at it, and Pena is a guy who knows how to take a walk. Keep that in mind for a utility spot late in the draft if you think you need some more power, which as I’ve said a million times, isn’t quite there this year.

From the pitching perspective, I can see Dempster, Zambrano and Silva having solid years and being solid values this year. They are all guys I recommend at the right price, and that price will be generally cheap since starting is so deep this year. Marmol strikes out so many guys. Sure he can be a little erratic and walk a ton of dudes too, but give the guy credit for always finding his way out of jams. I don’t think Wells is going to be a fantasy-worthy guy. You certainly shouldn’t draft him, but he’s a decent spot start in some places because he has dominated a few NL teams in his career.

2. Cincinnati Reds
If you’ve been a follower of The Knurve for a long time, you’ll know that I became infatuated with the Reds during the course of the last season. I love Joey Votto, I love Brandon Phillips, and for those who know be best, they know I have an unhealthy mancrush on Jay Bruce. While I certainly love this teams prospects this year, I have some slight concerns that I think will prevent them from winning this division again. The first of those concerns is Scott Rolen. There’s no question the Reds wouldn’t have been near as good as they were last year without Rolen, but I worry about his age and health. He showed some signs of breaking down in the 2nd half and I worry that he will be unable to stay healthy the whole season, which will most certainly hurt the Reds tremendously. There are also some inconsistencies on this offense that I have some worries about. They have a lot of power-strokers, but I worry about their ability to put the ball in play. Stubbs is as dynamic a leadoff guy as they come and Phillips is a fantastic number 2; however, those two guys, along with Rolen, Bruce and Jonny Gomes have all struggled at some point or another with their contact rates. I truly think that can hold a team back, and that will be the case with the Reds this year. This is certainly nitpicky, but in a division this close, I think you have to look at the little things in order to assess who can win a division, and this is certainly a little thing I worry about.

The Reds pitching is another slight concern for me. Do I like Jonny Cueto and Edinson Volquez? Absolutely. Do I worry about their consistencies? Absolutely. Both of these guys have always struggled with walking guys, and I don’t think either of them are going to get much better this year. Bronson Arroyo is one of those guys who is never the sexiest fantasy option, but knows how to pitch well enough to win. I think a solid 4 ERA guy like him is the type of pitcher that keeps teams in divisions, especially with this offense behind him. When you look at this team’s bullpen, it’s probably the second strongest in the NL behind the Giants. Aroldis is going to be solid in the pen this year, but not great. But Nick Masset and Bill Bray are solid arms in that pen. Francisco Cordero always makes the Reds sweat out their victories, but he always gets his 35+ saves and the Reds are always happy, so why should that change now?

Fantasy Outlook:
I have the 9th pick in my draft this season, and I am excited about the prospects of getting Joey Votto on my team. He was right there in the Triple Crown hunt this year, and I expect more of the same this season. I like him a ton out of 1st base options because he is good for 10-15 steals like Pujols is, but may hit 5-10 less homers. Brandon Phillips is another noteworthy guy. I really like him to have a solid year. He has been progressing each year for the past few seasons, and I can see him turning in another solid 20-20 campaign. He will also benefit from hitting in front of Votto by scoring more runs, and Dusty might have him steal a little more if Rolen doesn’t pan out. Jay Bruce should be a great power option this year. He was looked at as a 5-tool prospect, but he looks like he’s tried to establish a power stroke, and I think he could hit 30 this season, but I worry about his batting average. And I don’t think he will steal 10 bags, but if he steals 5, that could still be solid. I can see Bruce ending as a top 5 outfielder in terms of power numbers, he’s a mid-round guy to target if you feel like you didn’t get the power necessary with your first 5 or 6 picks. Drew Stubbs is the other fantasy player who has immense potential and upside. The reason I remain mum on Stubbs is because I think he could be great, but at the same time he’s so young and raw. He can easily go 20-30, but I don’t know if he’s going to do it this year. The speed may certainly be there, but I think he’s too much of a free swinger to be extremely successful this year. Much like Colby Rasmus, he needs a touch more plate patience before I can consider him elite and draft him where he’s projected to go.

The toughest thing about this team as a whole is how to gauge their youth alongside the upside. There’s no doubting the talent that Cueto and Volquez have, but I worry that they’re never going to amount to being elite fantasy pitchers. They both walk too many guys. That being said, they have great strikeout potential and both are solid players, but I caution the owner who thinks one of these guys is going to be an elite sleeper, I just don’t see it, so draft accordingly. Travis Wood had an outstanding rookie campaign and garnered a lot of attention, especially after his near-perfect game against the Phils. I do believe in the sophomore slump, but I think Wood and Mike Leake’s control is pretty solid, and that’s one thing that only improves with age. Will they each strike out a ton of guys? Not at all, but they ascended through the Reds farm system (Leake never pitched in the minors) so quickly because they both knew how to throw strikes. From a value standpoint, I like Leake and Wood a lot better than I like Volquez and Cueto.

1. Milwaukee Brewers
I understand that this is a shocker. I understand that picking the Cards to finish 4th is somewhat crazy, wild, nuts, maybe even incomprehensible. But this Brewers team made some crucial acquisitions in the offseason that I think will truly put this team over the top. I love the replacement of Alcides Escobar with Yuniesky Betancourt in terms of production. I love the pitching acquisitions too. Replacing over-the-hill Trevor Hoffman with stud set-up guy Takashi Saito will help this team tremendously. Gallardo is a stud, and combining him with Greinke and Shaun Marcum will make people cookoo for cocoa puffs. I know their fourth is nowhere near what the Phillies or Giants have, but Randy Wolf is a solid number 4. I also like Chris Narveson to round out this rotation at number 5. I HAVE to include a disclaimer that I worry about the health of Greinke and Marcum, but I’m staying optimistic that they are going to be healthy enough and pitch well enough to propel this talented team to the NL Central title. The bullpen is also extremely tasty. Saito and LaTroy Hawkins are solid setup guys along with Kam Loe and Zach Braddock and Manny Parra. I think there is so much experience there, and I can see them holding it down well enough to win games with this explosive offense.

From an offensive standpoint, what’s not to like here. Rickie Weeks had a solid year leading off for this team, scored a ton of runs, and posted great numbers. Granted, he could be seen as a health risk, but I am staying optimistic that this team stays healthy. Corey Hart is another guy who’s struggling with some rib issues, but if there’s a time to be hurt and figure everything out it’s April and not August. Lingering issues are a problem, but I think the Brewers know they’d be wise to take their time with Hart. Fielder’s contract year motivation will be strong, and I think he will have such a strong year and continue to rake. The Hebrew Hammer Ryan Braun is also a stud who I look to have a great year. I am very excited about his prospects for this year. The combination Braun and Fielder provide is so dynamic and powerful and will make the pitchers in the NL quiver with fear. Casey McGehee could end this season being the strongest hitter in the NL Central, and nobody knows about him. He will also rake behind Braun and Fielder. Both those guys get on base at such an impressive clip, that I can see McGehee bringing them home a ton, because they’re not too good for their home.

Fantasy Outlook:
I think I’ve harped enough on all the offensive prowess of this team. Braun is clearly a top 3 outfielder, and you should pay for him as such because on top of his 30 homers, he will steal 15-20 bags and hit for a solid average. Fielder is one of those elite power guys you can take in the 2nd round that will help you tremendously. Use that first pick for an outfielder like Braun or that elite 3rd baseman like David Wright. McGehee is a guy I want on my teams because he comes at such a good value. He has progressed every year, and I think Fielder and Braun will both be even stronger than they were last year, so keep an eye on him. Weeks is certainly an injury liability, but him continuing to lead off makes this team so solid. Corey Hart has struggled with injuries a little bit in spring training, but I look for him to put together another solid year.

Quite simply, I like each of the top 4 starters for the Brew Crew this season. They will all come at good values and they are all guys who have been there before. Marcum is a trendy pick, Gallardo’s got great strikeout potential, Greinke will be healthy and will benefit from the move to the NL and Randy Wolf’s a pretty consistent K guy who never seemed to get a lot of run support. I also really like Axford at the end of this bullpen. Clearly I’ve got big expectations for this whole team.