I want to preface this season’s baseball projections by saying that this year has been extremely hard to predict on many levels. I think there are a lot of contenders this year that could win the whole thing. I think we’re going to see the most exciting September in a while.
In this preview I will give you my predictions for the regular season as well as a season outlook on every team including some relevant fantasy players on each team that you should take note of. I will be posting The Knurve’s predictions by division, so if you want to go straight to a division of interest, click on the right side under March and you can find that division.
So, without further due HERE is The Knurve’s comprehensive season preview:
AL Central
The name of my most important fantasy baseball league last season was “Better than the AL Central.” I view this name as extremely ironic this year, because after a whole host of acquisitions, the AL Central is relevant again. From top to bottom, the AL East is head and shoulders above every other division in baseball, but the top 3 in the AL Central are all teams I could see going all the way.
5. Cleveland Indians
This team’s offense is simply too old to compete in this league and division. Bringing in aging guys like Austin Kearns and Orlando Cabrera may help them, but Travis Hafner hasn’t swung the bat well in a while and Grady Sizemore may not be completely healthy. That being said, I love Shin-Soo Choo and Carlos Santana, Michael Brantley has potential to be a solid leadoff hitter, and Asdrubal Cabrera is a solid player. My biggest problem with this offense is that they’re all average. Matt LaPorta has been a relative disappointment in the majors (remember the Brewers traded him in the Sabathia deal) and I just can’t see this team putting together a respectable offense than can win 90+games.
The pitching is also sub-par. Masterson has the talent, but he hasn’t been able to put it all together for a major league season. I think Carmona’s 2010 is exactly what we can expect in 2011, high 3’s ERA, not a lot of K’s, and not a lot of wins. The rest of the rotation will not be very strong between Mitch Talbot, Carlos Carrasco and Josh Tomlin. I can’t see any of those three putting together respectable enough season’s. The Indian’s bullpen isn’t terrible, though. They have one of the best closers in the game in Chris Perez, and Joe Smith, Chad Durbin and Raphael Perez aren’t terrible.
When push comes to shove, this team just isn’t very good and will have a long and disappointing year.
Fantasy Outlook:
Choo is one of the best fantasy outfielders in the game. He’s going to hit close to .300 with great plate patience and he’s a consistent 20/20 guy. He’s an outfielder who is going to only help your fantasy team, so I would keep an eye on him as a 3rd or 4th round pick. In a relatively weak short stop position, I’d also take a look at Asdrubal Cabrera as a late-round pickup. He’s not sexy, but Cabrera can give you double-digit homers and steals with a solid batting average. When it comes to guys at the end of a draft, you’re always looking for guys with great upside who could help you tremendously, or a solid track record so they won’t hurt you, Cabrera is one of those guys who won’t hurt you. Brantley could be a very good and very cheap source of speed. And speaking of speed/power guys, I think I have to talk about Sizemore. If Sizemore is healthy, he has great upside, but I worry with micro-fracture surgery how much he’ll be like his old self. He was struggling before the surgery and he struggled the year before. I don’t think there’s any doubting his upside, but he may be a good upside pick in the late-teen rounds of your draft.
There’s nothing too sexy about any pitchers not named Fausto Carmona or Chris Perez. I think Carmona’s 2009 was a bit of an aberration but in 2010 he was a nice bounce back play. He’s got one of the most potent sinkers in the game when he’s throwing it well. In the over 34 innings he threw last September, he posted a 1.82 ERA but only recorded one win. Chris Perez is a guy who won’t be one of the first 3 or 4 closers taken, but he is what I like to call a perfect draft-ee. When the other schmo-bags in your league are taking the top guys like Rivera, Broxton, Papelbon, Bell and Wilson, you can take hitters which will help your team even more, then you take a guy like Perez who will be a stud this year. Masterson’s a sleeper guy I’d look out for, he’s one of those waiver wire guys that can help your team immensely if he hits a hot streak.
4. Kansas City Royals
As much as I want this team to succeed and think they will have the tools to do it, the pitching just isn’t there this year, especially after trading away Zach Greinke. As much as their offense got better by trading away Greinke, their pitching got that much worse. I really like Alcides Escobar as a sleeper short stop this year and think he can hit for average and add a nice touch of speed at a shallow position this year. If you ask my fantasy arch-nemesis Brad Sussman who the unexpected MVP of his fantasy team (which lost to me in the championship last year) was, he’d probably tell you that Mike Aviles was his guy. Aviles is one of those guys who, given the chance to lead off, which he probably will, could be as valuable a player this year in the AL Central. He’s got the speed, and if any of the bats behind him have some trace of a good year, he could be a great fantasy option. But from a baseball perspective Jeff Francoeur, Melky Cabrera, Alex Gordon and Kila Ka’aihue all have solid potential to be good baseball players, but I just don’t know if they all can put it together well enough to get to the playoffs by themselves. I really like all those guys as baseball players because of the flashes of brilliance they have all shown in their relatively young careers, but none of them are as experienced or accomplished as Billy Butler, and even he’s not that sexy. This offense has a lot of strong components, but I can’t see them putting it all together.
From the pitching perspective, there’s really not a whole hell of a lot to talk about here. Greinke is gone and Meche retired (quite admirably even though he was never THAT good). So what does that leave us with? The best closer in the league and nobody to get the ball into his hands, Joakim Soria. What they have is Luke Hochevar and Kyle Davies, young guys who haven’t done a whole heck of a lot in the bigs. I do expect new addition Jeff Francis to perform for them after the decent season he put together for the Rockies last year, and getting out of Coors should help him pitch a little better.
Fantasy Outlook:
I’ve talked about Aviles and I think he’s capable of playing like a Brian Roberts type player in his prime. Billy Butler is also a guy to keep an eye on. Do I think Butler can hit 25 homers? No. But he knows how to take walks, he has a great slugging percentage and batting average, and he is the best offensive player on this team. If you miss out on the powerful 1st baseman, Butler isn’t a terribly far step back in that category for a whole lot cheaper of a price. The other guys I mentioned earlier are all dudes I would take fliers on if you’re beginning to get apathetic at the end of your draft. I think either Gordon, Ka’aihue and Francoeur could be surprises and if I had to pick one, I’d actually say Gordon. Ka’aihue is still very young and Francoeur strikes out a little too much, but the move to the outfield really helped Gordon last year and I think he could be ready to be a shadow of his projected self 4 years ago, which is still pretty damn good.
Soria is obviously a top dude. Even though he’s asked people to stop calling him the Mexicutioner, I think it’s an apt nickname for such a dominant pitcher. As with previous years, the main question will be if Soria can get the ball or not. Outside of Soria, I think the only other pitcher to take a long look at is Jeff Francis. He showed some stretches of quality last season. He’s not a guy I’d draft, but someone I’d keep an eye on in a relatively weak-hitting division.
3. Detroit Tigers
If you remember well, you know that this team straight-up collapsed last year. You can’t say they stopped playing, but they just seemed unable to win games. They made a few critical acquisitions like Victor Martinez and Brad Penny which will greatly help this offense and pitching staff as long as both these guys, especially Penny, stays healthy. Picking this team third wasn’t hard to do, and I touched on how much deeper this division was now, but I don’t think this offense is good enough to win this division. I don’t want to perpetuate the whole “Miguel Cabrera is distracted” talk because I don’t think it’s going to be a huge deal, but I worry about the competence of his supporting cast should he not perform. Austin Jackson was Yin in the first half and Yang in the second half of the season (Yin=very good/Yang=very bad), Will Rhymes, Brennan Boesch and Ryan Raburn are so young and unproven and Ordonez is old and disproven. There’s certainly something to be said for Victor Martinez’s presence, but I don’t think he and Miggy alone can carry this offense. I don’t see any of the other young and inexperienced hitters putting together a good enough season to lead this team to enough wins to take down this division. Boesch is someone I will be keeping an eye on, but he played beyond his skill set last season, but I think he can still be a very solid contributor to the Tigers this year. Looking at the back end of this lineup, I don’t think that Jhonny Peralta and Brandon Inge really scare pitchers anymore. The combination of youth, inexperience, and inflated numbers last year led to the Tigers demise in the 2nd half last year and I worry that this offense could be in for a long year, even with a solid V-Mart and Miggy. But this pitching staff will keep them in a lot of games.
The bullpen is good, but not great. Valverde closing games can always be a risk, but Joaquin Benoit was a big acquisition for this team because he was fantastic for the Rays last year, and I think Benoit will get a lot more attention this year as the Tigers setup man. This rotation has a very solid top four. Verlander is a stud, Scherzer was fantastic after figuring out a flaw in his delivery midway through last year, Porcello struggled last year, but I think this is going to be a good year for him, and if Brad Penny stays healthy, he can be solid for the Tigers this year. The rest of the bullpen isn’t anything special, but I think there’s enough experience and upside in this pitching staff to help the Tigers be successful this year. But the combination of average hitting and slightly above-average pitching isn’t enough to win this competitive division.
Fantasy Outlook:
The two obvious offensive names are Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, but outside of that, there’s not too much sexiness there. Some of their young guys like Boesch and Jackson played a little above their heads last year and I don’t think they will put together AS good fantasy seasons this year. The rest of this lineup doesn’t scare pitchers enough because they don’t do anything scary anymore that will help people win fantasy championships. I don’t see anybody else on this team contributing enough offensively to warrant being drafted with expectation in a mixed fantasy baseball league.
The pitching has some names to look out for. In many ways I look at Virginia native Justin Verlander and “two-different-colored-eyes” Max Scherzer (it’s true) as being almost the same pitcher because they each have great strikeout potential and can put together dominant stretches that just make hitters look stupid. Verlander is going to be a little cheaper than Scherzer. While I project great seasons for both, I think Scherzer could be a better option for 2011. Penny could be a great bargain option for the Tigers like he was with the Cardinals before he got hurt, so if he can stay healthy, he’s a guy I like to get double digit wins with an ERA around 4. He’s one of those guys that won’t go in the top 250, so keep an eye on him if he hits the waiver wire after your fantasy draft. Valverde is a good closer, but always a guy I keep an eye on because he’s not the most trustworthy of closers. Benoit is the type of setup guy I love because he strikes a lot of guys out and he will keep that ERA and WHIP obnoxiously low. I briefly mentioned Rick Porcello and how I think he will bounce back at least a little. So far he’s off to a great spring and I think he will continue that into the regular season.
2. Minnesota Twins
I truly love and respect Ron Gardenhire and I think he’s one of the best managers in the game. Year after year he takes average to above-average talent and he makes them great. This year will be no exception. The team returns everybody, has a lot of good talent, and adds one of the best players from Japan. The main questions I have about this team are the health of Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer, and whether some of their young bats can repeat the great years they had last season. I think Delmon Young will be very good this season, but I worry a little bit about Danny Valencia. It’ll be interesting to see how he does in a full season, but I’m not too optimistic. The reason this team is so good offensively is because the guys you’ve never heard of carry the team offensively. Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer continue to put out good numbers and contribute to this team with great power and the ability to drive in Mauer and Morneau. Target Field also played like a big-time pitchers park last year, but it’ll be interesting to see if some of the hitters adjust their swings to the park a little better in the 2nd year like many of the Mets did last year.
The Twins pitching staff is sort of hit or miss to me, but generally I think they’re going to be hits. I worry a little bit about Pavano being able to repeat what he did last year, I worry about Blackburn as a whole, and I worry about Baker on the road. But I am a huge believer in Brian Duensing and have developed a big man-crush on Francisco Liriano. Liriano will be the anchor of this rotation which I can see pitching extremely well in spurts and not-so-hot at times. As a whole this is a solid rotation who have the experience and ability to do some great things in September, but I look at the Twins and see a team that cannot win in October as they haven’t made that one acquisition that puts them over the top. Nishioka is not that acquisition, by the way. But Pat Neshek and Jose Mijares have been solid staples of that bullpen, and the move by Matt Capps back to the bullpen sets up things for Nathan really well, assuming Nathan is fully over the Tommy John surgery that kept him out of the 2010 campaign.
Fantasy Outlook:
I still have my doubts and worries about Morneau. How strong and able is he to hit for the power and average we’ve come to expect out of him. How well he do in a full season in Target field? I am also staying as far away from Joe Mauer as possible. Whenever he is drafted or whatever another owner pays for him will certainly not be worth a guy who hit only 1 home run at home and is playing the games most demanding position coming off of knee surgery. For a guy who doesn’t run anymore, I am just not a believer that he can contribute to your team as much as Brian McCann, Buster Posey or Victor Martinez. Kubel and Cuddyer are two guys who are as consistent as they come, and given the difficulties finding power in the outfield, they are mid to late round guys to target who will greatly help your team. Denard Span will be a good, cheap source of speed at the end of your draft, but I worry he may not help you as much in other categories. Delmon Young was in the MVP conversation last year, and I think he could pick his game up even more if Morneau and Mauer manage to stay healthy. I have big-time faith in Delmon Young and can see him putting up another 25-100 campaign. Nishioka is the other notable fantasy player to mention, and I’m not even going to try to predict what he can do in the majors because Japanese players are hit or miss. He’s a finesse player and maybe that ballpark will play to that with the big gaps at Target Field
Like I said, the pitching will be hit or miss. I don’t know if Pavano can do it again, but there’s really no good evidence to see why he can’t. I like Pavano a lot and think pitching many of his games in that ballpark with a decent defense will give him another productive season. Liriano is one of those guys who is going WAY too late in many of the mocks I’ve been in. I think this guy can be a top 10 pitcher, so if you think he is going to go soon, try to get him. I will be staying away from Nathan this year, but I have no reason to think he won’t make it as a dominant closer this year. Tommy John is always tricky, but if you’re going to draft Nathan then why not get Capps as well to handcuff him?
1.Chicago White Sox
The AL Central has a funny habit of coming down to the final days of September, and I don’t have any reason to believe this season will be different. But when you look at this team, they are the most complete squad in this division, and maybe even the AL. The White Sox acquisition of Adam Dunn may be the 3rd most important acquisition in the AL behind Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez. The team has a touch of speed, a dash of power and a whole lot of experience on offense. The guys who have been there before like Konerko, Dunn, Pierre and Quentin will make up for the talent they have that haven’t been there like Beckham and Brent Morel, who will probably get the job at 3rd.
The White Sox rotation has a bunch of solid guys who know how to keep their team in games. Buehrle’s never been the most attractive pitcher, but he always goes out and gets the job done. Floyd and Danks are solid pitchers who pitch to the defense behind them. While Edwin Jackson has shown some inconsistencies, mainly in his control, he has also put together some solid games. I am optimistic about Jackson this season, though. The bullpen is also very consistent and will keep this team in many games. Thornton or Sale will close and whoever doesn’t is a solid setup man alongside Jessie Crain and Will Ohman.
Fantasy Outlook:
Dunn highlights the fantasy options for this team, and he’s a guy I have no problems overpaying for or overdrafting bcause the power potential is too great to pass up, especially given his move to a more hitter-friendly location. He kills the ball no matter where he is, but now he’s got a better lineup protecting him and he finally gets to DH and if Konerko does anything this year, Dunn will benefit greatly. Konerko surprised a lot of people with his great success last year, and I think we could see similar numbers from him again this year. He’s a good, late power option who could help you win your league this year because of his value in the middle of the draft. Juan Pierre might have his best season yet with this offense too. For a guy with an almost career .300 average with this offense behind him, he could put up spectacular speed numbers to go along with all the runs he may score. Gordon Beckham is a big question mark after falling way short of expectations last year, but Ozzie stuck with him, which means he sees something, and he started to gain back the confidence towards the end of the year that he lost at the beginning of the year. With that mindset coming into this season that your manager’s got your back, I think Beckham could settle in and have a great offensive year. And I haven’t even gotten to Alex Rios, Carlos Quentin and Sexy Alexei Ramirez. Rios’s 2nd half was pretty putrid last year so I like to stay away from guys like him who haven’t been able to put a full season together. If Carlos Quentin is healthy, he’s another guy who you will get even later than Konerko that will give you a great power boost. And Ramirez will be a solid short stop option despite not hitting for great average.
This team’s pitchers are all solid value picks this season, especially Danks. Starting pitching is so deep this season that it’s easy to get lost in the shuffle of guys who don’t strike a heck of a lot of people out or get a lot of the attention being in the Midwest, but Danks and Floyd will be solid value plays this year. Edwin Jackson has great upside, but I don’t see him being the picture of consistency that will make him a consistent fantasy starter in any league. Whether Thornton or Sale is the closer of this team, I think both of them will be solid as the closer, definitely better than Bobby Jenks was.
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