The World Series....

If you've been reading this blog, you'll know that I've talked at length about how baseball is played much differently out west. It's funny that two teams from the west will be competing for baseball's biggest crown. I've spent a countless amount of time trying to formulate who I think will win this series. The fact that I have almost no confidence in my prediction for who will win this series is representative of this idea that anything goes in the "wild west."

The Rangers
If you look at my full playoff preview, I picked the Rangers to get swept by the Rays. The primary reasons for that was the fact that they stumbled into October courtesy of poor pitching and poor health.

Their pitching this postseason has been GOOD but not great. You look at the team ERA of 2.76 and think they've been lights out. But outside of Cliff Lee, nobody else in that rotation; Wilson, Lewis, or Tommy Hunter really scare me. While we're on the topic of Cliff Lee, I just want to point out that he has struck out 34 batters and walked only 1 in 24 playoff innings pitched.

The Rangers offense has scored 59 runs this postseason, which is 23 runs more than the 2nd place Yankees in that category. I'd say the bats have woken up, and have woken up with vigor. Josh Hamilton has shown that he is healthy, Vladamir Guerrero has shown that he still has some gas left in the tank, big hits have come from Elvis Andrus and even former Giant Benjy "the tree trunk" Molina. This offense is clicking on all cylinders right now. The match-up versus the Giants pitching staff is going to be exciting to watch.

The Giants
The epitome of NL West baseball is scraping out wins the way the Giants have. It may not be pretty, it may not be flashy, it may not be sexy, but the Giants are a team that knows how to get the job done.

The Giants starting rotation has been as advertised, out-pitching the Phillies and Braves to get to the Fall Classic. Conversely, their offense has gotten the timely hits needed to reach the World Series. Any offense without significant weapons like a Josh Hamilton is especially reliant on hitting when runners are in scoring position. 23 of the Giants 30 post-season runs have been scored when runners are in scoring position. That ratio of 23 to 30 is the highest ratio of any team in the post-season, showing that they have been reliant on big hits, and have gotten them.

The World Series
Trying to predict this series is like trying to predict what Mike Tyson is thinking; it's very close to impossible. Poorly constructed compulsive jokes aside, there are three dichotomies taking place which I think are the most important things to consider when trying to predict this series: great hitting vs. great pitching, hitters park vs. pitchers park, and AL vs. NL.

Great Hitting vs. Great Pitching
It's going to be strange. The Giants rotation has been dominant. Everybody not named Cliff Lee has been solid for the Rangers, but not scary. From a purely pitching perspective, I'd say the edge goes to the Giants and it's not even that close. I don't trust EVERYBODY in the Rangers bullpen. The types of games the Giants play are the low-scoring, timely-hitting scrapers. The Rangers bullpen has been suspect at best this postseason. The 3 O's: Oliver, Ogando, and O'Day have been far from scary this postseason, and I don't think they're capable of holding it down for the Rangers well enough to hang with the Giants phenomenal pitching. Of course, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention the dominance that is Cliff Lee. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that he single-handedly gives the Rangers at least one win in this series. His acquisition was great for the Rangers

Conversely, the Rangers offense has been fearful this postseason. I was a big fan of the Rays pitching (hence my pick for them to win the World Series) coming into the postseason, but the Rangers did work against them. The Rangers also did work against the putrid Yankee pitching staff

Hitters Park vs. Pitchers Park
Combine the fact that the stronger offense in this series plays in the 6th best hitters park with the fact that the weaker offense plays in the 8th worst hitters park; this complicates predicting this series even more. To try and get to the crux of this I looked at home-road splits. The Rangers had the third best offense at home this season, scoring 430 runs in Arlington. Contrast that with their 357 runs away from Arlington, and we see a relatively large disparity with the Rangers offensive efficiency. In an attempt to gauge how the Rangers offense will perform in San Francisco, I looked at their performances in two of the most pitcher-friendly parks (which just so happen to be in their division), the A's and Mariners. Their offense was notably worse against those teams at home versus on the road. The A's have a solid rotation, and the Mariners were so-so, but the fact that the Rangers offense didn't put up intimidating numbers versus those teams in their venues makes me think that their bats will fall silent in San Francisco.

The Giants home ERA this season sat at a pretty 3.07. The Rangers away ERA this season was an ugly 4.24. Advantage: Giants.
The Rangers home ERA this season was 3.65. The Giants away ERA this season was the league best 3.67. Advantage: Giants.

I'm pretty sure you all can tell where I'm leaning with my prediction, but the last of these dichotomies may be the most important of them all.

AL vs. NL
The fact that Brian McCann may be the reason that the Giants win the World Series seems a little ridiculous to me, but that's a conversation for another day. This is the classic debate and what makes the World Series as exciting as it is. How will NL pitching do against superior AL hitting and vice versa?

For the Giants, facing Vladamir Guerrero in Texas instead of whatever scrub-hitting pitcher the Phillies would throw out there is a big challenge. But I have faith in this Giants pitching staff. They have been the best rotation in the whole league. I cannot see this Rangers team hitting against the Giants pitching or in AT&T Park because they have struggled in similar pitching-friendly venues.

The fact that the World Series is the AL vs. NL every year makes for enigmatic predictions and compelling storylines, and this year is no different.

The Prediction
I think Cliff Lee and the whole Rangers offense is worth something in this equation. I think the Rangers will win one of his 2 starts in this series, but I cannot see the rest of the Rangers pitching staff matching up with the Giants. The coolest stat I discovered while researching this prediction was that despite their reputation their offense has for being poor, the G-Men have led the NL in Homers since the All-Star break.

That being said, I think the Giants will have success in Texas against Colby Lewis and Tommy Hunter in games three and four. Lincecum will beat Cliff Lee in one of their two match-ups, and I have to figure the Rangers offense tees up on somebody, at this point I'm thinking Sanchez.

It may be bold, and I'm pretty unsure about this one: Thanks to home-field advantage and their strong pitching staff, the Giants win the World Series in 6.

Happy World Series!! Become a fan, tell your friends, and comment!!!!!

Oh, how I love October.....

Hello everybody.

I'm pretty bored in class right now, so I'm going to take the liberty of not paying attention and talk about how great these playoffs have been.

I guess we can start with my Rays pick. I'm not upset in the least that they Rays lost to the Rangers. My justification for that pick was that I was completely unsure of both how healthy Josh Hamilton was, and the shakiness of the Texas bullpen. When we read about how Jacoby Ellsbury struggled with his ribs all season, in the back of my mind I thought the same thing would happen with Hamilton.

I had a sneaking suspicion that the Yankees just didn't have the pitching to compete with whichever potent AL offense they'd face in the Championship Series. The Rangers absolutely embarrassed the Yankees bullpen in New York. I like the Rangers chances, especially when Cliff Lee is pitching against the Yankees in game 7 if the fantastic arm of Phil Hughes takes the Yankees there (note the facetiousness of that comment). Obviously the injury to Teixeira doesn't help matters for the Yankees. The Rangers ballpark has benefited other teams better then the namesakes in this post-season, but I think they will get the 1 game they need to make it to the fall classic.

I'm not going to count my chickens before they hatch, but I will elaborate on why I made my 'controversial' pick of the Giants. I have said many times on this fantastic website the importance of four man rotations in this post-season. Major League Baseball eliminated three extra off-days that teams had in previous years. It's because of this that having a stronger 4 is exponentially more important than having a stronger 3. Couple this with the fact that the Giants have a much stronger bullpen and the Phillies have never played well at AT&T Park, and this pick was a no-brainer for me. It's also the reason I still thought the Giants were capable of making the playoffs even when they were down 6 games to the Padres in early September.

I kept telling people that the winner of game 4 was going to win this series because of that fourth starter. I by no means want to say I'm completely writing off the Phillies at this point. I am saying that I cannot see the Phillies taking three games off of the Giants top three, I thought two was plausible and obviously one game was too. But the fact that Baumgarner outpitched Blanton makes me feel that the Phillies cannot beat Lincecum, Sanchez, and Cain consecutively. Again, they could prove me wrong, and as an objective baseball fan I would love for them to prove me wrong.

Keep your eyes peeled for a complete World Series preview after the Championship Series reach their exciting conclusions.

Happy October!

Regular Season Awards and Post-Season Predictions....

Well hello and welcome back to The Knurve, the blog that Peter Gammons calls, "the most intriguing thing I've ever read, this Kaplan kid is brilliant."

What a great regular season. I am extremely happy because my fantastic fantasy team took home the crown over its most hated rival. That is neither here nor there, but bragging rights are always fun to have. Let's get right to my picks for post-season awards:

AL MVP:
The AL MVP and the AL Cy Young aren't as clear-cut as the NL awards. There can be a case made for the monster seasons that the likes of Miguel Cabrera and Jose Bautista had, but when you're not on a playoff team, how valuable can you really be? Not to knock the incredible years those two put up, but it's hard for me to legitimize an MVP candidate on a team who didn't make the playoffs. That being said: it comes down to Carl Crawford and Josh Hamilton for me. It's hard to compare the two because they do relatively different things.

But when I look at the horrid performance by the Rangers in September, I have to say Hamilton is the AL MVP. The team looked lost without him. Seldom would I advocate giving an MVP to someone who missed the whole last month of the season (Joe Mauer missed the first month last year), but Hamilton put up monster numbers and almost single-handedly carried the Rangers into an easy playoff berth. The guy only hit .359 with 32 home runs and 100 runs batted in. The main question will be how healthy he is to help his lost Rangers find their way against the mighty Rays.

AL Cy Young
While I can't justify giving a hitter on a non-playoff team, I think the case can be made for a pitcher. The hapless Mariners offense was never enough to give Felix Hernandez the wins or recognition he deserved. I believe very strongly that he was the best pitcher in the majors this season, though. He was a work horse for the Mariners, tossing 249.2 innings. He gave up one, only one run in 26 innings pitched against the mighty Yankees this season. He gave up four earned runs in the whole month of August. He sports a 1.53 ERA since the All-Star break, while striking out over 100 batters in that time. The man was truly and purely dominant, and should be considered the Cy Young winner going away.

NL MVP
This is probably the most difficult award to hand out, but I can't see anybody who has been more valuable to his team than Joey Votto has been to the Reds this season. Sure, he has the fortune of playing in a stadium where lefties can almost bunt homers, but a closer look at the numbers shows that he hit way better on the road this season. He hit .297 at home and .349 on the road, and actually hit one more home run on the road than he did at home. So for those who think he's lucky to play in the Great American Small-Park, take another look at his dominance on the road. The man does it all. He has the benefit of a strong Reds line-up around him, but he's the best player on what I think is one of the best teams in the playoffs. I'm a believer in the Reds, and Joey Votto is the superstar face of that franchise. To think that he makes in a year what A-Rod makes in a week is pretty astounding, he's about to get paid.

NL Cy Young
I had a really tough time with this one. Just kidding. I didn't make Roy Halladay my first pick for no reason in my primary fantasy league. I wanted a guy who would eat a ton of innings, Roy did that. I wanted a guy who could strike guys out, Roy did that. I wanted a guy who strike out at least 200, Roy did that. I wanted a guy who could win a bunch of games, Roy did that. You could throw out Johnson or Wainwright, but neither had as complete a season as Halladay did. Johnson was injured, and even though a case could be made for Wainwright, the Cardinals just didn't help him out enough to legitimize choosing him over Halladay. I look forward to many continuing years of Roy Halladay dominance over the National League.

Playoff Predictions
Well, I guess I have to admit now that I didn't think the Phillies would get that hot or the Braves offense would go that cold. But it happens. I'm sorry to all the Philly fans who were offended by my lack of trust in the Phillies, but a look at the atrocious stretches that offense went through were hard to eradicate. While the Padres collapse was hard to watch, I think many people could have seen it coming. Even when the Padres were up 6 games on the Giants, I still believed the Giants had more offensive firepower and a comparable pitching staff. The Reds have been the model of consistency this season. The team has played solid baseball all season, and although they didn't have the strongest September, I think they prove a dangerous match-up with the Phils in the first round.

NL
Reds V. Phillies
I actually think this series will be a dogfight. There's a huge part of me that thinks the Reds win, but I lack the gumption to put them over the top. If the Reds can somehow manage to get to H2O then power to them, but the Phils took five of seven during the regular season. If there's a Division Series upset to be had, I honestly think it's this one, but I'm taking the Phillies in 4.

Giants V. Braves
This is going to be another great series. I was all over the Braves earlier in the year, but their starting pitching has shown some pretty big holes since the All-Star break. With top ace Tim Hudson struggling alongside his starting colleagues, I just don't see the Braves winning this series, especially given the way the Giants played in September. If the Braves offense hits like they've shown they can, then I'll take them, but I think the Giants pitching is too good. Giants in 5.

AL
Rays V. Rangers

Simply put, the Rangers don't have the pitching to compete with the Rays. If there's a sweep to be had in the divisional series, I think it's the Rays. They just have all the pieces in place to make a great run at the World Series. The Rangers offense was pretty bad in September, and nobody fears Cliff Lee quite the way they did when he was in Seattle. I don't know how healthy Josh Hamilton is, but the rest of that offense isn't as fearsome as it was in the first half. I'll take the Rays in 3.

Yankees V. Twins
I have zero, and I mean zero faith in a Yankees pitcher not named C.C. or Mariano. I think the Yankees are going to be a tough team to predict because of their terrible pitching and superb hitting. The Twins have been in this spot before and gotten crushed by the Yankees. As much as I think the Twins are capable of winning this series, I just don't think they have the rotation to outlast the Yankees. The Twinkies lineup is a lot less scary without a healthy Mauer and a Morneau in there. I think this series will be a lot closer than people think, but I think this is a case where the Yankees offense reigns supreme. Yankees in 5.

Championship Series
NL
Off the cuff, I think the Phil's Giants series is going to be phenomenal. The Giants and Phillies split the season series 3-3 and roughed up Halladay in the beginning of the season. The Giants have the better 4th option to stick into their rotation than do the Phillies, and I think it could come down to that. The Phillies do not play well in AT&T park, going 2-5 there in the past two seasons. I think the stronger 4th starter, coupled with the stronger bullpen and a pretty distinct advantage at home makes me say the Giants will take this one in 7. Sorry to all my Philly readers.

AL
In a sense, the whole season in the AL has led to this. I have been saying all year that the Rays are the most complete team in baseball, and I stick by that. What the Yankees will be able to get away with against the poor Rangers rotation and bullpen, they won't escape against the Rays. I see the offensive fire-power of the Yankees being somewhat stymied by a relatively experienced Rays pitching staff. I just can't see the Yankees getting away with what they call their starting rotation now. Hughes has been terrible, Pettitte could still be hurt, and the Yankees clearly don't trust Vazquez or Burnette at all. I think when push comes to shove, the Rays win this one in 6.

World Series Prediction
When the Rays face the Giants, I will be watching very closely. This series could have a game 7 written all over it, and I think it will. While the edge would go to the Giants pitching staff, I think the Rays offense could prove a bit too much. It'll be interesting to see how Joe Maddon would test the arm of Buster Posey, who threw out 23 of 52 runners, which is solid, but no team is faster than the Rays, and I think the spacious AT&T will help the Rays way more than it would the Phillies.
So, I wish an early congratulations to the Tampa Bay Rays for overcoming their historic futility to reach the pinnacle of baseball by beating the San Francisco Giants in an exciting 7 game series.

Let's get some discussion going, any comments, questions, concerns, leave a comment.....

Happy October!