Hello all. So things with COSFBA weren't working out. So I'm going to try and write on this blog at least once a week. I know only 12 of you will read it, but I don't really care. It's all about love of the game...
With that being said, enjoy.
This week, I have "The Knurve to say..."
"...The Giants will repeat as World Series Champs."
I know it's early in the season, but I am feeling very confident about this one. Many baseball writers seemed to write the Red Sox into the title, but after seeing them in person last weekend, I'm ready to say that the Giants will beat them in the World Series for a few solid reasons.
The first thing is the Red Sox lack of a right-handed bat. Take a look at the splits and you won't see much of a dip in terms of batting average. But the thing that does stick out is the Red Sox inability to hit for power against lefties. They've hit almost 3 times more homers against righties than they have against lefties. I think this will be a problem in October if Madison Bumgarner and Jonathan Sanchez both pitch well. Sanchez is slated to return to the bigs soon, and if he hits his stride in September that solidifies that rotation. Lefties are only hitting .222 off Lincecum so far this year. And believe it or not, righty Matt Cain is incrementally better against lefties than against righties.
The Giants pitching staff hurls .203 versus lefties with a slugging percentage south of .300. Couple that with the fact that the Giants bullpen has allowed the fewest runs in the majors this year and we have a delicious recipie for Giants success against the lefty bats on the Red Sox: Jacoby Ellsbury, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, David Ortiz, Josh Reddick and J.D. Drew.
I haven't even talked about the ballparks either. Lest we not forget that the Giants would have homefield advantage should they make it to the tasty tango, so the fact that San Fran plays as a strong pitchers park could mean more trouble for the lefty-heavy Red Sox.
Thoughts from the week that was...
-I'll start by answering the comments that were posted on my last article. The fan criticized my Jays wildcard pick, and that's completely warranted. I just feel like there's so much offensive potential and an improved bullpen would really make this team a contender, but Drabek has been a disappointment and the starting pitching has underperformed. I'll be interested to see what the Jays, Red Sox and Yankees all do at the deadline, but I'm not ready to call that pick dead yet. As for Ichiro having a big second half, I'll stand pat by that one. He's had a slow July, but I just can't fathom him digressing this quickly, especially since all the sub-stats say he's getting a little unlucky. I'm also going to stand pat with my Matt Kemp 40/40 prediction. I think he'll be the number 1 player off the board next year in fantasy. The commenter said he'd be lucky to get to 30/30. Considering he's already at 24/27, I'd say he's going to get to at least that.
-Fenway is awesome. Went to my first games there last weekend and it's such a personable ballpark. Saturday night I sat right next to the Mariners bullpen and could smell Brandon League's terrible body odor. I also want to point out that Brandon League looks exactly like Rob McElhenney who plays Mac from Always Sunny in Philadelphia. Miguel Olivo also told me to "Watch the game and shut the f#*k up" which was awesome. I didn't even heckle him that bad, but maybe he's mentally weak. The other highlight was Papelbon's entrance, that was epic and people in Beantown go wild.
-Brett Lawrie is a prospect I'm buying. He seems to be recovering well in AAA Las Vegas and could join the Jays in the next few days. I really see him contributing in a quasi-Braun or Longoria-type way as a rookie. His numbers in AAA are stupendous and he has a solid batting eye. If he's available in your league, go nab him.
-I also want to clarify a point I made about Adrian Gonzalez last week. I said to sell high on him post-HR Derby hype. I am of the school of thought where if you possess the "hottest player in fantasy" who is a widely-regarded elite name, than you should sell him, ideally in a 2-for-1 to plug any holes you may have. When you have a white-hot player who already has name recognition, it's a double-whammy that doesn't happen all the time. I said that I don't think Gonzalez gets to 35 shtoinkers when people thought he was a lock for 40. It's worth noting his shtoinker total from July so far.... 1.
- If you own Michael Pineda, I'm selling now. I don't think the 2nd and 3rd time through the league will be very friendly to him, and it's been a rough 2nd half so far. He's one of those guys who you trade now for a struggling hitter with potential or a reliever that could help your team. His fastball has lost life and his ERA by month: April: 2.01, May: 2.81, June: 3.03, July: 8.31. If you're in a keeper league, definitely hang on, but if you're in a Head-to-Head league, you might want to sell. If you're in a roto league, you may need to keep him for the strikeout potential.
- I'm in on Cameron Maybin. Dude's hitting .422 with 10 steals since the All-Star break. Before we call him a failure of a prospect let's remember that he's still only 24 years old. This could be a huge year for him in terms of career development. Hitting in PETCO certainly helped Adrian Gonzalez become a more complete hitter, and I think the same has happened for Maybin. San Diego only has him signed for this year, so if he moves, he could pay dividends for fantasy teams in a hitters park, or anywhere but PETCO.
I'll be quick with the Mike Stanton Mancrush Meter since I'm way over on words already. Last week: 7. This week: 8. Two more bombski's last week. He's the man.
Joke of the week: Banana walks into a bar, bartender says to leave since they don't serve food.
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
Saturday, May 21, 2011
The Evolution of Pitching...
I listen to the ESPN Fantasy Focus Baseball Podcast everyday. On Friday's podcast, Nate Ravitz and Tristin Cockcroft had a very interesting conversation about pitching that got me thinking.
Ravitz was talking about how the superiority of pitching in the last two seasons has forced us to redefine how we evaluate a pitchers' success. There are so many strong options toeing the bump these days that in a 10-team mixed league, a guy with a 3.50 ERA might not be helping you as much anymore. Amazing that a 3.50 ERA might be harming your team, but there are so many of those guys these days that you really have to take a stronger look at a pitchers' peripherals and K numbers to determine if he's worth rostering.
For example, Astro's starter Bud Norris, who they discussed on the podcast yesterday, holds an ERA just under 4 after a rough outing. Now if you compare his ERA now with many of the 67 starters in the majors with a lower ERA, he's still got tremendous value because of his K rate which is 2nd best in the bigs at 10.5 K's per 9. There are so many replacement level pitchers with empty sub-3.5 ERA's who don't help you at all.
I'm trying to get at several things here. There are so many pitchers with great ERA's that can trap you up. Josh Tomlin may be sexy now because of his ERA, but the fact that he doesn't strike anybody out (nor will) forces him to be merely supplemental to a guy like Norris who will combine with Tomlin to give a good ERA and a good amount of K's. As you search to improve pitching, I implore you to keep these things in mind. Aside from Norris, guys like Brandon Morrow, Edinson Volquez, Scott Baker, Bartolo Colon and Erik Bedard are the guys you should target. Don't get scared by a sub-par ERA because, whether you'd like to admit it or not, these guys are your inexpensive horses. Make sure you use them wisely. It's easy for the average fantasy player to get caught up in having a low ERA and WHIP, but given the nature of the game, you need to look for that little bit extra and take advantage of these low-ERA guys as supplemental to strikeout horses.
Follow me on Twitter @TheKnurve
Ravitz was talking about how the superiority of pitching in the last two seasons has forced us to redefine how we evaluate a pitchers' success. There are so many strong options toeing the bump these days that in a 10-team mixed league, a guy with a 3.50 ERA might not be helping you as much anymore. Amazing that a 3.50 ERA might be harming your team, but there are so many of those guys these days that you really have to take a stronger look at a pitchers' peripherals and K numbers to determine if he's worth rostering.
For example, Astro's starter Bud Norris, who they discussed on the podcast yesterday, holds an ERA just under 4 after a rough outing. Now if you compare his ERA now with many of the 67 starters in the majors with a lower ERA, he's still got tremendous value because of his K rate which is 2nd best in the bigs at 10.5 K's per 9. There are so many replacement level pitchers with empty sub-3.5 ERA's who don't help you at all.
I'm trying to get at several things here. There are so many pitchers with great ERA's that can trap you up. Josh Tomlin may be sexy now because of his ERA, but the fact that he doesn't strike anybody out (nor will) forces him to be merely supplemental to a guy like Norris who will combine with Tomlin to give a good ERA and a good amount of K's. As you search to improve pitching, I implore you to keep these things in mind. Aside from Norris, guys like Brandon Morrow, Edinson Volquez, Scott Baker, Bartolo Colon and Erik Bedard are the guys you should target. Don't get scared by a sub-par ERA because, whether you'd like to admit it or not, these guys are your inexpensive horses. Make sure you use them wisely. It's easy for the average fantasy player to get caught up in having a low ERA and WHIP, but given the nature of the game, you need to look for that little bit extra and take advantage of these low-ERA guys as supplemental to strikeout horses.
Follow me on Twitter @TheKnurve
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
I'm Back Baby!!!
This is a letter to the 18 or so people who actually read my blog:
Dear Readers:
I cannot apologize enough. I have been both extremely busy and extremely lazy to give you the fantastic baseball knowledge from my convoluted little brain that you so eagerly crave and desire. I’ve watched several exciting and interesting things, but have resulted to the simplicity of the tweet instead of the extravagant and well worded blog-post.
Do you all desire more?
Probably not.
Do I give it to you anyways?
Not lately.
Will you want it in the future?
Probably not.
Will I still do it anyways?
Probably.
For those of you who do or don’t know a lot about Roanoke, Virginia, there’s not a whole heck of a lot going on here. In fact, that’s exactly how this blog started. About a year ago I was sitting on my couch watching baseball and I realized I should just start writing about it. One year later, The Knurve has built an empire of dedicated followers (mostly family friends and relatives) and is a lot of fun for me.
So without further due, I will actually begin talking about baseball and hopefully will be blogging semi-regularly, so follow me on twitter @TheKnurve to be in touch with new posts and special promotions (I’ll call you to say hello).
In looking at the season thus far there are several baseball and fantasy baseball storylines that are pretty astounding in order of significance to me:
1. The Cleveland Indians: Frankly, I’m sick of hearing about every reputable baseball analyst and blog talk about these guys. They have to because it’s a great story, but this is not a good baseball team. This is an extremely lucky baseball team. They only seem to give up solo home runs, they have played a terrible schedule, and they have too many guys that are over-performing. That being said, they are playing in the weakest division in baseball BY FAR (See: Number 3), so winning this division could be possible because of this start.
2. The Minnesota Twins: When I made my preseason predictions, I knew the Twins would be a little weaker, but I didn’t expect to see this. Mauer didn’t look like Mauer from the get-go, and to be honest, I think he is extremely overrated as a fantasy player. I wasn’t going to touch him preseason and I advised the dedicated followers not to touch him. I think the Twins may have gotten ahead of themselves when they traded away solid catching prospect Wilson Ramos to the Nationals for Matt Capps. Sure, Capps has been valuable to the Twins thus far, but their offense is absolutely atrocious with no signs of getting better. Delmon Young has been awful, Span is pretty bad, and Morneau may never get back to 50% of the MVP numbers he used to put up before his concussion. Ramos has been hitting a little bit for the Nats and any offense is good offense for the Twins.
I bring up Ramos because it’s looking more and more like Mauer’s body is already breaking down as a catcher. Bilateral Leg Weakness is not something you want a guy who has to squat for a living to have. I’m really worried that Mauer will be nothing more than a DH for the rest of his career, making the Capps for Ramos deal a steal for the Nationals.
3. The AL Central as a whole: I think the demise of the Twins is slightly more shocking, but how bad is this division? None of these teams scare me compared to any of the teams in the AL East. I’d literally take the O’s over the Indians at this point of the season. I was really high on the White Sox coming into the season, and to see them perform like this has been nauseating. The Royals have a lot to look forward to, but they are still one year away. The Tigers don’t do anything sexy, and you know what I think about the Twins. The White Sox have the most talent in this division by far, but literally everybody on this team is underperforming. At this point, I think this division is wide open, but at this point I can’t see any team in this division making any noise in October.
4. Jose Bautista: I thought last year was a fluke. I didn’t think he’d be able to do this again. But after watching a few of his at bats from his 3HR game on Sunday, I’m a believer. He has such a good batters eye, and knows how to take walks as evidenced by his .500+ OBP. He’s one of those guys that every time he steps to the plate, he earns the fastball he crushes. Great power hitters force the pitchers they face to throw them strikes, and Bautista knows how to work himself into counts by being patient when he’s thrown breaking pitches. He’s only on pace to strike out 75 times. I think we’re watching a special transformation and I would throw the town at the guy who’s got him to nab him for the rest of the season.
5. Curtis Granderson: I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Granderson immediately after Bautista. It’s amazing that baseball is a game of inches, and it’s amazing what happens when you make a few small adjustments and what it can do. Move your hands a few inches back and close your stance a few inches and you’ve got Curtis Granderson. He’s one of the only guys hitting on this Yankee offense and if it weren’t for him, they’d be in trouble. This guy is quickly turning into one of the most dynamic hitters in the AL. He’s also 4-5 in steal attempts and I think he’s going to run a little more here soon, especially if Jeter continues to perform as poorly as he is. You can’t hate on any lefty in Yankee Stadium, and I think as the summer comes that offense will be fine (even though the pitching is a whole other story). I’m a believer in Granderson. He won’t hit more than .275, but I think this power stroke is real.
6. Young AL Arms: I was originally going to write this little blurb about Pineda, but I realized it would be unfair if I didn’t mention Britton, Tomlin, Masterson, Humber and McCarthy. Many of the best starters in the league reside in the NL, but these guys are carrying big loads for their teams and it’s been impressive. They all have ERA’s under 4 and have given big lifts to their squads, specifically Pineda, Masterson and Tomlin. I think Tomlin and Masterson’s luck will run out a little bit, but I can see all these guys maintaining these performances the rest of the way.
7. The Unhealthy ManCrush I’m developing on Mike Stanton: Look, I’m 2 months older than the guy, but boy do I love him. He never looks like he swings hard, and he just crushes the ball. I am reluctant to trade him because I feel like whenever he hits a home run I get two for my fantasy team. I couldn’t write a blog post without telling the blogosphere how much I truly love Mike Stanton.
That’s it for today. Check Twitter @TheKnurve to be in touch with when I write, but I’ll be upping my game here soon. Much love.
Dear Readers:
I cannot apologize enough. I have been both extremely busy and extremely lazy to give you the fantastic baseball knowledge from my convoluted little brain that you so eagerly crave and desire. I’ve watched several exciting and interesting things, but have resulted to the simplicity of the tweet instead of the extravagant and well worded blog-post.
Do you all desire more?
Probably not.
Do I give it to you anyways?
Not lately.
Will you want it in the future?
Probably not.
Will I still do it anyways?
Probably.
For those of you who do or don’t know a lot about Roanoke, Virginia, there’s not a whole heck of a lot going on here. In fact, that’s exactly how this blog started. About a year ago I was sitting on my couch watching baseball and I realized I should just start writing about it. One year later, The Knurve has built an empire of dedicated followers (mostly family friends and relatives) and is a lot of fun for me.
So without further due, I will actually begin talking about baseball and hopefully will be blogging semi-regularly, so follow me on twitter @TheKnurve to be in touch with new posts and special promotions (I’ll call you to say hello).
In looking at the season thus far there are several baseball and fantasy baseball storylines that are pretty astounding in order of significance to me:
1. The Cleveland Indians: Frankly, I’m sick of hearing about every reputable baseball analyst and blog talk about these guys. They have to because it’s a great story, but this is not a good baseball team. This is an extremely lucky baseball team. They only seem to give up solo home runs, they have played a terrible schedule, and they have too many guys that are over-performing. That being said, they are playing in the weakest division in baseball BY FAR (See: Number 3), so winning this division could be possible because of this start.
2. The Minnesota Twins: When I made my preseason predictions, I knew the Twins would be a little weaker, but I didn’t expect to see this. Mauer didn’t look like Mauer from the get-go, and to be honest, I think he is extremely overrated as a fantasy player. I wasn’t going to touch him preseason and I advised the dedicated followers not to touch him. I think the Twins may have gotten ahead of themselves when they traded away solid catching prospect Wilson Ramos to the Nationals for Matt Capps. Sure, Capps has been valuable to the Twins thus far, but their offense is absolutely atrocious with no signs of getting better. Delmon Young has been awful, Span is pretty bad, and Morneau may never get back to 50% of the MVP numbers he used to put up before his concussion. Ramos has been hitting a little bit for the Nats and any offense is good offense for the Twins.
I bring up Ramos because it’s looking more and more like Mauer’s body is already breaking down as a catcher. Bilateral Leg Weakness is not something you want a guy who has to squat for a living to have. I’m really worried that Mauer will be nothing more than a DH for the rest of his career, making the Capps for Ramos deal a steal for the Nationals.
3. The AL Central as a whole: I think the demise of the Twins is slightly more shocking, but how bad is this division? None of these teams scare me compared to any of the teams in the AL East. I’d literally take the O’s over the Indians at this point of the season. I was really high on the White Sox coming into the season, and to see them perform like this has been nauseating. The Royals have a lot to look forward to, but they are still one year away. The Tigers don’t do anything sexy, and you know what I think about the Twins. The White Sox have the most talent in this division by far, but literally everybody on this team is underperforming. At this point, I think this division is wide open, but at this point I can’t see any team in this division making any noise in October.
4. Jose Bautista: I thought last year was a fluke. I didn’t think he’d be able to do this again. But after watching a few of his at bats from his 3HR game on Sunday, I’m a believer. He has such a good batters eye, and knows how to take walks as evidenced by his .500+ OBP. He’s one of those guys that every time he steps to the plate, he earns the fastball he crushes. Great power hitters force the pitchers they face to throw them strikes, and Bautista knows how to work himself into counts by being patient when he’s thrown breaking pitches. He’s only on pace to strike out 75 times. I think we’re watching a special transformation and I would throw the town at the guy who’s got him to nab him for the rest of the season.
5. Curtis Granderson: I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Granderson immediately after Bautista. It’s amazing that baseball is a game of inches, and it’s amazing what happens when you make a few small adjustments and what it can do. Move your hands a few inches back and close your stance a few inches and you’ve got Curtis Granderson. He’s one of the only guys hitting on this Yankee offense and if it weren’t for him, they’d be in trouble. This guy is quickly turning into one of the most dynamic hitters in the AL. He’s also 4-5 in steal attempts and I think he’s going to run a little more here soon, especially if Jeter continues to perform as poorly as he is. You can’t hate on any lefty in Yankee Stadium, and I think as the summer comes that offense will be fine (even though the pitching is a whole other story). I’m a believer in Granderson. He won’t hit more than .275, but I think this power stroke is real.
6. Young AL Arms: I was originally going to write this little blurb about Pineda, but I realized it would be unfair if I didn’t mention Britton, Tomlin, Masterson, Humber and McCarthy. Many of the best starters in the league reside in the NL, but these guys are carrying big loads for their teams and it’s been impressive. They all have ERA’s under 4 and have given big lifts to their squads, specifically Pineda, Masterson and Tomlin. I think Tomlin and Masterson’s luck will run out a little bit, but I can see all these guys maintaining these performances the rest of the way.
7. The Unhealthy ManCrush I’m developing on Mike Stanton: Look, I’m 2 months older than the guy, but boy do I love him. He never looks like he swings hard, and he just crushes the ball. I am reluctant to trade him because I feel like whenever he hits a home run I get two for my fantasy team. I couldn’t write a blog post without telling the blogosphere how much I truly love Mike Stanton.
That’s it for today. Check Twitter @TheKnurve to be in touch with when I write, but I’ll be upping my game here soon. Much love.
Thursday, April 7, 2011
Thoughts about Thoughts....
So what's going on?
What's going on with the Red Sox? What's going on with Prince Fielder? What's going on with Albert Pujols? What's going on with the Pirates? Rangers? Reds? Alfonso Soriano?
There's certainly been some shockers so far. But I caution everybody that it's such a long season. So many people want to emphasize bad starts and good starts as if they're going to be trends throughout the whole season, but let's be realistic.
Red Sox
The Red Sox are not going to be a losing ball club. They haven't gotten a quality start from a pitcher yet this season, and things just haven't gone their way. I don't know if there's just a crazy amount of pressure on Crawford, or this team just needs more time to click. Their pitching has certainly been a huge disappointment, but am confident they will be fine and run away with the AL East. They HAVE to win today. There's no such thing as a must-win before May 1, but Lester against the Indians is pretty big.
Fielder and Pujols
They're going to get it together. Baseball is clearly a game of streaks, and some teams just have losing streaks at the beginning of the season. Some players just get off to slow starts. Pujols and Fielder are two of the best hitters in baseball, and that will come to fruition throughout this season. I'm not worried about these two, just as I'm not worried about the Brewers as a whole. Their bullpen hasn't done what they've needed to do, but this offense has been very good. Once Greinke gets back and Marcum hits stride, they'll be fine.
Pirates, Rangers, Reds
Trivia: Which of these teams is perennially bad?
The correct answer is the Pirates.
My good friend and big Bucs fan Harry Barron texted me today saying that 12 more victories on the Road by the Pirates would eclipse their season total for road wins last year (Yes, the Pirates went 17-64 on the road last year). I did pick the Pirates to finish last this season, and I'll say they still do. But I'm keeping an eye on these guys. I said in that preview to watch out for their 1-4, and even though Alvarez has been hitting 5th, you still know what I meant. Neil Walker has come out hot, Tabata is filthy, McCutchen hasn't even been healthy and he's still a stud, and Alvarez has been solid. I said this team wouldn't lose 100, but I can see them getting that elusive .500 season, and I'm pulling for them.
The Rangers and Reds look like the real deal. I'm interested to see how Volquez pitches today since he didn't look great against the Brew Crew, but this offense has been fantastic. The Rangers are looking like they could field a AAA pitching roster and they'd still win their division since this offense is so good. They beat Felix today, they beat Lester on opening day, they're just filthy. This offense, led by everybody, has it all, and I hope they can stay healthy to show off their talent. We all know what happens with Kinsler, Cruz, and Hamilton each year, so let's keep a cautious eye out for them. I think Ron Washington will be very cautious with these guys as the season wears on.
Soriano
Why do I bring up Soriano? Because he was the very last player taken in my main fantasy baseball league. I want to emphasize how terrible he is on defense, and how he won't come close to stealing 30, but he's so much fun to watch. His swing is just a huge coil waiting to unleash. The Cubs have the rotation and the bullpen to be marginally successful in the league. If Soriano continues to play well, with Castro, Soto, Colvin, Aramis and Pena who all have solid bats then this may be a team to look out for. Watch out for these Cubbies.
Follow The Knurve on twitter @TheKnurve, tell your friends if you like the blog. Good night.
What's going on with the Red Sox? What's going on with Prince Fielder? What's going on with Albert Pujols? What's going on with the Pirates? Rangers? Reds? Alfonso Soriano?
There's certainly been some shockers so far. But I caution everybody that it's such a long season. So many people want to emphasize bad starts and good starts as if they're going to be trends throughout the whole season, but let's be realistic.
Red Sox
The Red Sox are not going to be a losing ball club. They haven't gotten a quality start from a pitcher yet this season, and things just haven't gone their way. I don't know if there's just a crazy amount of pressure on Crawford, or this team just needs more time to click. Their pitching has certainly been a huge disappointment, but am confident they will be fine and run away with the AL East. They HAVE to win today. There's no such thing as a must-win before May 1, but Lester against the Indians is pretty big.
Fielder and Pujols
They're going to get it together. Baseball is clearly a game of streaks, and some teams just have losing streaks at the beginning of the season. Some players just get off to slow starts. Pujols and Fielder are two of the best hitters in baseball, and that will come to fruition throughout this season. I'm not worried about these two, just as I'm not worried about the Brewers as a whole. Their bullpen hasn't done what they've needed to do, but this offense has been very good. Once Greinke gets back and Marcum hits stride, they'll be fine.
Pirates, Rangers, Reds
Trivia: Which of these teams is perennially bad?
The correct answer is the Pirates.
My good friend and big Bucs fan Harry Barron texted me today saying that 12 more victories on the Road by the Pirates would eclipse their season total for road wins last year (Yes, the Pirates went 17-64 on the road last year). I did pick the Pirates to finish last this season, and I'll say they still do. But I'm keeping an eye on these guys. I said in that preview to watch out for their 1-4, and even though Alvarez has been hitting 5th, you still know what I meant. Neil Walker has come out hot, Tabata is filthy, McCutchen hasn't even been healthy and he's still a stud, and Alvarez has been solid. I said this team wouldn't lose 100, but I can see them getting that elusive .500 season, and I'm pulling for them.
The Rangers and Reds look like the real deal. I'm interested to see how Volquez pitches today since he didn't look great against the Brew Crew, but this offense has been fantastic. The Rangers are looking like they could field a AAA pitching roster and they'd still win their division since this offense is so good. They beat Felix today, they beat Lester on opening day, they're just filthy. This offense, led by everybody, has it all, and I hope they can stay healthy to show off their talent. We all know what happens with Kinsler, Cruz, and Hamilton each year, so let's keep a cautious eye out for them. I think Ron Washington will be very cautious with these guys as the season wears on.
Soriano
Why do I bring up Soriano? Because he was the very last player taken in my main fantasy baseball league. I want to emphasize how terrible he is on defense, and how he won't come close to stealing 30, but he's so much fun to watch. His swing is just a huge coil waiting to unleash. The Cubs have the rotation and the bullpen to be marginally successful in the league. If Soriano continues to play well, with Castro, Soto, Colvin, Aramis and Pena who all have solid bats then this may be a team to look out for. Watch out for these Cubbies.
Follow The Knurve on twitter @TheKnurve, tell your friends if you like the blog. Good night.
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
America's Favorite Game...
Some may argue that baseball is America's favorite game. I might tend to agree, but there's one other game that might be even more fun to play: Is it real? Is it real is probably one of the greatest games of all time because it attempts to answer extremely difficult questions based off of extremely small sample-sizes.
Today I will be going through some of the notable performces both by teams and players to see if their performance thus far is real, it can be continued, or fake, they can't keep this up.
So without further due and in the wise words of Mos Def in his album Black on Both Sides here....we.....go....
Albert Pujols-- FAKE:: This is the one that I figured we should just get out of the way. He's struggled out of the gate thus far, and Matt Holliday being out for a bit won't help his matters too much. In my NL Central preview I had the audacity to have the Cards finish 4th in the division, and I still stand by that. But it won't be becuase Pujols is underperforming.
Brewers-- FAKE:: Conversely to the Cardinals, I picked the Brew Crew to win this division. I'm not concerned at all about their 0-4 start. I'd like to see their bullpen pitch a little better as Axford and Saito have both taken some pretty heart-breaking losses this season. Their offense is also a little slow going, but I won't take back my prediction for them to win the Central.
Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler-- REAL:: Obviously these two aren't going to combine to hit 300 Homers for the Rangers this season. But they are still extremely potent. I'm partial to Kinsler because he's Jewish, but he also happens to be a very good baseball player. I like Kinsler leading off a little bit in the first couple games to keep Elvis Andrus fresh. This offense is pretty electric and pretty dynamic. Cruz and Kinsler are the guys who can carry this offense, and they haven't even started running yet.
Minnesota-- REAL:: I think what they've done so far this year could be what we see from this team the whole season. I don't trust this pitching staff, I don't think Mauer and Morneau are healthy, and I don't think this team is capable of winning this division, especially after what the White Sox offense has done this season.
Tampa Bay -- REAL:: Just like the Twins, I just think this is a sub-par baseball team. Look at all that they lost and you will see that this team cannot compete in this division. At this point I don't see them turning it around unless they make some addition. Their pitching hasn't been great and their offense was simply embarrassing against the Orioles.
Brian Roberts-- REAL:: If this dude is healthy, he is still a great fantasy player. I think the fantasy owner who took him in double digit rounds or for low teens dollars will be extremely happy they got Roberts. He seems to be healthy and that offense around him is not too shabby at all. It's going to be exciting to see what this offenese does, and Roberts could score 100+ runs.
Jorge Posada-- REAL:: I honestly think that he was made to DH at this point. Yankee Stadium is such a bandbox and I think it'll be awesome to see what an old gonker like himself will do with this offense in front of him.
Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins-- FAKE:: They are 1 and 2, respectively in batting average in the NL, but I caution fantasy owners who are going bonkers over their performance thus far. Lest we not forget that they were playing the Astros who have one of the worst bullpens in the majors and most of those Phils games were won late. If I were to pick one, I would say Jimmy Rollins will have a better season, but I'm not too optimistic about him.
That's it for now... If you want to know if a team or somebody is real or fake, either comment on the site or tweet @theknurve and I will answer your question.
Thanks for reading! Tell your friends!
Today I will be going through some of the notable performces both by teams and players to see if their performance thus far is real, it can be continued, or fake, they can't keep this up.
So without further due and in the wise words of Mos Def in his album Black on Both Sides here....we.....go....
Albert Pujols-- FAKE:: This is the one that I figured we should just get out of the way. He's struggled out of the gate thus far, and Matt Holliday being out for a bit won't help his matters too much. In my NL Central preview I had the audacity to have the Cards finish 4th in the division, and I still stand by that. But it won't be becuase Pujols is underperforming.
Brewers-- FAKE:: Conversely to the Cardinals, I picked the Brew Crew to win this division. I'm not concerned at all about their 0-4 start. I'd like to see their bullpen pitch a little better as Axford and Saito have both taken some pretty heart-breaking losses this season. Their offense is also a little slow going, but I won't take back my prediction for them to win the Central.
Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler-- REAL:: Obviously these two aren't going to combine to hit 300 Homers for the Rangers this season. But they are still extremely potent. I'm partial to Kinsler because he's Jewish, but he also happens to be a very good baseball player. I like Kinsler leading off a little bit in the first couple games to keep Elvis Andrus fresh. This offense is pretty electric and pretty dynamic. Cruz and Kinsler are the guys who can carry this offense, and they haven't even started running yet.
Minnesota-- REAL:: I think what they've done so far this year could be what we see from this team the whole season. I don't trust this pitching staff, I don't think Mauer and Morneau are healthy, and I don't think this team is capable of winning this division, especially after what the White Sox offense has done this season.
Tampa Bay -- REAL:: Just like the Twins, I just think this is a sub-par baseball team. Look at all that they lost and you will see that this team cannot compete in this division. At this point I don't see them turning it around unless they make some addition. Their pitching hasn't been great and their offense was simply embarrassing against the Orioles.
Brian Roberts-- REAL:: If this dude is healthy, he is still a great fantasy player. I think the fantasy owner who took him in double digit rounds or for low teens dollars will be extremely happy they got Roberts. He seems to be healthy and that offense around him is not too shabby at all. It's going to be exciting to see what this offenese does, and Roberts could score 100+ runs.
Jorge Posada-- REAL:: I honestly think that he was made to DH at this point. Yankee Stadium is such a bandbox and I think it'll be awesome to see what an old gonker like himself will do with this offense in front of him.
Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins-- FAKE:: They are 1 and 2, respectively in batting average in the NL, but I caution fantasy owners who are going bonkers over their performance thus far. Lest we not forget that they were playing the Astros who have one of the worst bullpens in the majors and most of those Phils games were won late. If I were to pick one, I would say Jimmy Rollins will have a better season, but I'm not too optimistic about him.
That's it for now... If you want to know if a team or somebody is real or fake, either comment on the site or tweet @theknurve and I will answer your question.
Thanks for reading! Tell your friends!
Thursday, March 31, 2011
0.00617
You may be thinking to yourself, "Self, what the heck does the title of David Kaplan's article even mean? I didn't know he could do math?"
Well I, David Kaplan, will tell you what it means. .00617 is the number you get when you divide 1 by 162. One day, one game, out of 162. And what a day it was.
The game that sticks out to me is obviously the one with the walk-off home run. That loss for the Brewers is obviously not the way you want to start a season, but what you saw from the Brewers in innings 1 thru 8 is what you can expect to see the whole season. Axford blew the game, but I think he's going to be fine. I posted earlier today that I was worried about Volquez today, and he didn't perform too well. If Axford doesn't blow this save, Volquez looks like even more of a fool than he does right now. While Edinson looked like he may be able to exercise some control, I still worry that his changeup isn't developed enough to get out the plethora of stud hitters on the Brew Crew.
Staying in the NL Central, I picked the Pads and the Cards to finish at the bottom of their respective divisions. Pujols obviously had an off game and he'll be completely fine, but Ryan Franklin might just be one year too old to be successful in this league, and I worry that he struggles this season. If you read my preseason preview you know that I don't worry near as much about the Cards bullpen as I do their rotation, and if they can't win Carpenter's starts, then this team might be in trouble. I don't view Cameron Maybin as any sort of fantasy sleeper this year, he just got a good pitch and he hit it well.
Gotta love Heyward going yard again this season. If Derek Lowe pitches like that the whole season, the Braves could win this game by 3+ games. I will be watching close to see what happens with the Phils offense tomorrow, but needless to say, I'm extremely concerned.
The last thing is Kershaw. I posted on twitter @TheKnurve that Kershaw was looking a lot like Koufax. Granted, I never saw Koufax, but Kershaw was just dominant. I said last year many times that the NL West comes down to bullpens in games like these, and the Dodgers were just a little better tonight. Great pitching is plethoric out West.
That Yankees offense got the timely hits they needed when they needed them. Tomorrow is the big day, to see how Burnett does on Saturday as these two squads have the day off tomorrow. I posted on Twitter that if Teixeira has a solid April, this team will be all the more scary for the rest of the season. Burnett had a solid spring, but I don't think Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia scare people at all, and Burnett and Hughes have both shown they are extremely hittable.
Beautiful Opening Day. Follow me on Twitter @TheKnurve and don't be afraid to ask questions, I'd love to hear from the readers.
Well I, David Kaplan, will tell you what it means. .00617 is the number you get when you divide 1 by 162. One day, one game, out of 162. And what a day it was.
The game that sticks out to me is obviously the one with the walk-off home run. That loss for the Brewers is obviously not the way you want to start a season, but what you saw from the Brewers in innings 1 thru 8 is what you can expect to see the whole season. Axford blew the game, but I think he's going to be fine. I posted earlier today that I was worried about Volquez today, and he didn't perform too well. If Axford doesn't blow this save, Volquez looks like even more of a fool than he does right now. While Edinson looked like he may be able to exercise some control, I still worry that his changeup isn't developed enough to get out the plethora of stud hitters on the Brew Crew.
Staying in the NL Central, I picked the Pads and the Cards to finish at the bottom of their respective divisions. Pujols obviously had an off game and he'll be completely fine, but Ryan Franklin might just be one year too old to be successful in this league, and I worry that he struggles this season. If you read my preseason preview you know that I don't worry near as much about the Cards bullpen as I do their rotation, and if they can't win Carpenter's starts, then this team might be in trouble. I don't view Cameron Maybin as any sort of fantasy sleeper this year, he just got a good pitch and he hit it well.
Gotta love Heyward going yard again this season. If Derek Lowe pitches like that the whole season, the Braves could win this game by 3+ games. I will be watching close to see what happens with the Phils offense tomorrow, but needless to say, I'm extremely concerned.
The last thing is Kershaw. I posted on twitter @TheKnurve that Kershaw was looking a lot like Koufax. Granted, I never saw Koufax, but Kershaw was just dominant. I said last year many times that the NL West comes down to bullpens in games like these, and the Dodgers were just a little better tonight. Great pitching is plethoric out West.
That Yankees offense got the timely hits they needed when they needed them. Tomorrow is the big day, to see how Burnett does on Saturday as these two squads have the day off tomorrow. I posted on Twitter that if Teixeira has a solid April, this team will be all the more scary for the rest of the season. Burnett had a solid spring, but I don't think Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia scare people at all, and Burnett and Hughes have both shown they are extremely hittable.
Beautiful Opening Day. Follow me on Twitter @TheKnurve and don't be afraid to ask questions, I'd love to hear from the readers.
Opening Day!!!
I have said that my 2nd favorite day of the year is opening day. I have also said that my favorite day of the year was when Duke wins the National Championship. Sure it's a terrible joke, but today is going to be beautiful. Last year's opening day was marked by some great performances.
Albert Pujols hit 2 homers against the Reds, and everybody thought, "Here goes Albert again." What did Pujols do the rest of the season? Not much, just almost won a triple crown and would have won an MVP if it weren't for that Votto guy.
But Pirates stud Garrett Jones also hit two home runs, and then a few more in the following week. Needless to say, Jones was not an MVP or triple crown candidate the rest of the year. Jones wasn't even close.
So with opening day here, let's remember to enjoy the game, let the players play, and get pumped for a fantastic baseball season.
The game to watch today is going to be Cincy and Milwaukee. If you read my season preview, I picked the Brew Crew to finish first and the Reds to finish behind them. The Reds success will certainly be predicated on their starting pitching, so I am looking at Volquez's performance very closely today to see how he looks, especially against one of the best left-handed hitters in the league; The Prince.
Time to get back to class, but follow me on twitter @TheKnurve as I'll be tweeting thoughts on games throughout the day.
Happy Baseball!!!
Albert Pujols hit 2 homers against the Reds, and everybody thought, "Here goes Albert again." What did Pujols do the rest of the season? Not much, just almost won a triple crown and would have won an MVP if it weren't for that Votto guy.
But Pirates stud Garrett Jones also hit two home runs, and then a few more in the following week. Needless to say, Jones was not an MVP or triple crown candidate the rest of the year. Jones wasn't even close.
So with opening day here, let's remember to enjoy the game, let the players play, and get pumped for a fantastic baseball season.
The game to watch today is going to be Cincy and Milwaukee. If you read my season preview, I picked the Brew Crew to finish first and the Reds to finish behind them. The Reds success will certainly be predicated on their starting pitching, so I am looking at Volquez's performance very closely today to see how he looks, especially against one of the best left-handed hitters in the league; The Prince.
Time to get back to class, but follow me on twitter @TheKnurve as I'll be tweeting thoughts on games throughout the day.
Happy Baseball!!!
Friday, March 25, 2011
NL Central Preview...
NL Central
I foresee some big changes coming again to the Majors’ largest division. There are some certainties, though, like the fact that the Pittsburgh Pirates will probably come in last place. However, I think some new acquisitions by one team has put them ahead of the rest.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pittsburgh Pirates will not lose 100 games this year. Losing 100 is pretty darn tough to do, but leave it to the Pirates to figure out how to do it. I feel extremely confident that this team will be better because their youth got a lot of experience under their belts last season, and I think the pitching is much better than it was last year. The Bucs brought in a few hitters like Garret Atkins, Matt Diaz and Lyle Overbay who will surely help a little (not a lot). But some of the pitching acquisitions the Pirates made will make them a much better ballclub.
There really is a lot to like between Neil Walker, Jose Tabata, Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutchen. These guys will be the first four that opposing pitchers see every game. Between those four, there’s a little speed, a little pop and a lot of talent. I really like this young nucleus of players. The main problem with this team is whoever’s hitting 5-9. The rest of the team will struggle to keep pace with these four, who I see having solid seasons at the dish.
I like the acquisitions of Scott Olsen and Kevin Correia for the Pirates, but let’s be realistic when we say that these guys are simply not good enough to make the team legitimately competitive. Maholm and Ohlendorf are not very good, and James McDonald is very young and unproven, but has great upside. The bullpen is probably the best thing the Pirates have going for them. I am a big believer in Joel Hanrahan closing games, and All-Star Evan Meek is a legitimate setup man who could make big moves for the closer spot should Hanrahan struggle. Joe Beimel is also a great lefty specialist who I think will single-handedly win at least 5 games because he can get Prince Fielder and Joey Votto out. The Pirates didn’t have a bullpen guy that could get those lefties out last year.
Fantasy Outlook:
McCutchen is the obvious first name to talk about here. I’ve watched a few of his games, and he might be the most exciting player in this division. He’s lightning fast, he can hit for power, and he’s got that cool little dreadlock ponytail that he rocks. I like him a lot as a top 10 outfielder because he truly does a little bit of everything. When he leaves the Pirates in a few years he’ll be making his weight in gold because he’s THAT good. He’s one of those guys I definitely want to target this season because he not only gives you that great speed in the outfield that I talked about in my draft day manifesto, but he also has 20 home run potential. I look at Neil Walker as having a lot of potential in this league. He hits for average, he’s got a little bit of pop, and he’s a switch hitter. I really like him as a very cheap 2nd base option who won’t hurt you at all. Pedro Alvarez is going pretty high in drafts, and I know exactly why. He can give you that elite power you desire. He may not drive in as many runs as someone like A-Rod, who has an infinitely better lineup around him, but I like Alvarez to put up similar numbers in all the other counting stats. I worry a little bit about Alvarez’s batting average risk, but if he hits 30 homers, he will be 20 times more valuable to you than a Mark Reynolds would be. The other guy I have to mention is Jose Tabata. Tabata will probably lead off for this team, and I can see him doing a lot of damage on the base paths. Remember what I said about cheap speed and drafting power from the infield out, guys like Tabata are the exact reason why.
Correia, McDonald and Olsen are all guys I’m not going to draft, but I’m going to keep an eye on. I think all of these guys have great potential if they’re healthy. It’s going to be interesting to see: how Correia does away from PETCO, McDonald handles his inexperience, and how Olsen’s health issues are maintained. Overall, there could be value here, but only in deeper leagues at this point. I really like Hanrahan as the closer of this team, and Meek is obviously a handcuff you’d want to keep an eye on.
5. Houston Astros
Quite frankly, this offense is atrocious. I’ve always been a huge fan of Hunter Pence and I think Carlos Lee will pick it back up this season. But outside of those two, this team just isn’t capable of making any noise this season. This team reminds me a lot of Bobby Hurley: parts of what they do are solid, but when push comes to shove, they’re just not great players. Offensively, this team will struggle depending on guys like Clint Barmes and Bill Hall. It’s very possible that great prospects Brett Wallace and Chris Johnson can put together solid seasons, which would propel this team to 4th or 3rd place; however, I just don’t see it this year. Pence is fantastic, and I think I love him because he’s just the goofiest looking player on the field, but plays so hard and so well.
On the mound, this rotation has some potential, but for the most part, their rotation is so hot and cold. Brett Myers was sensational last season, and I look for him to anchor this rotation, but Wandy Rodriguez is a guy I’ve never fully trusted, especially on the road. Bud Norris, Nelson Figueroa and J.A. Happ round out this rotation. I don’t want to overestimate this rotation’s potential because I can see them being successful, I just don’t think they’re all going to put it together enough this year to win the necessary amount of games. The bullpen is also pretty bad. Brandon Lyon is going to be solid closing games out, but the youth and inexperience of the rest of this bullpen will certainly blow a lot of good starts for this anemic rotation.
Fantasy Outlook:
Hunter Pence is the obvious name to look at here. He is one of those guys who you will draft and fall in love with immediately because of all he does for your squad. He steals bases, he has nice pop, and he does it all with a good average. In a shallow outfield, the potential 25-15 season Pence puts up will help your team tremendously. Carlos Lee’s 1st base eligibility will certainly help his value in case you decide to wait on power there. Lee is one of those guys who I can see turning in a solid season. I want to think something was terribly wrong last year that made his batting average dip so low. If he can somehow rebound to .275 and equal the counting numbers he posted last year, he’ll be a top 25 outfielder and top 15 first baseman, so he’s a guy I’m looking out for. I want to caution readers about Michael Bourn. Speed is obviously deep in the outfield this season, but I don’t know if he’s worth the price he’s being valued at right now because he could KILL your batting average. In my opinion, find your speed elsewhere with guys like Jose Tabata who may not steal 50, but won’t kill your batting average either.
When you look at this rotation, there’s a lot of potential. Brett Myers and Wandy Rodriguez will be the main names to look at, and I like Myers a whole heck of a lot better for this season. He’s so skilled and seems to have everything together, which is very exciting. I want to direct attention to Bud Norris. He’s one of those guys that you might not want to draft or bid on, but his strikeout potential is too great to just overlook. If he can figure out his control issues/damage control problems, then he could have ace potential. It seems like these strikeout guys figure out how to control everything eventually. He might still be a year away, but I like the strides he might make this year. He is a Brandon Morrow-lite. Brandon Lyon is another solid, cheap closer option who I can see having a pretty good year, but nothing to write home about. He will keep his job the whole season if that means anything to anybody.
4. St. Louis Cardinals
I spent a very long time looking at this team relative to the Cubs, and I wrote the Cubs into fourth place originally. But the more I look at the Cubs as a unit and the more I look at the Cardinals as a unit, the Cubs are just better. The loss of Adam Wainwright is going to be too big to absorb for this team. I know they have Albert Pujols, and obviously there’s a lot to be said about his presence, but he just doesn’t have the surrounding cast offensively outside of Holliday to make this team overly competitive. I still think they’re capable of finishing as a .500 ballclub, but as a whole this offense just might not be good enough. The reason they couldn’t compete last year was because of their offensive weaknesses and I don’t see Lance in my pants Berkman as the be-all end-all to this teams problems. If Rasmus has another solid year, that could propel this team into 3rd, but I just don’t see it. Skip Schumaker and David Freese are weak links in this offense. I think this offense is certainly good enough to keep this team afloat, but the rotation will kill them.
I rode the Jaime Garcia bandwagon all last season. But in looking at him as the 2nd starter with a whole heck of a lot more pressure and coming off the season AFTER his Tommy John, I worry about him. He could surprise me with a solid year as he did all of last year, but I just don’t think he’s a number 2 at all and if he’s not clicking, I worry about 3-5. Injury is always a risk with Carpenter, so if he has any glitches in the system, and he’s had a few this spring, then there could be some more trouble brewing with this rotation. Jake Westbrook, Kyle McClellan and Kyle Lohse just don’t do it for me. The biggest X-Factor for this team will certainly be Dave Duncan. He’s a pitching coach who knows how to coach pitchers more so than many coaches in this league. I just don’t know if the talent is there. The bullpen is certainly there, though. I like Motte, Boggs, and Miller handing the ball to Franklin. It’s one of those bullpens that may not be overly sexy, but they certainly get the job done.
Fantasy Outlook:
I’m not going to waste my time by talking about Albert Pujols because he’s the best player in the world. Take him first if you have the first overall pick, but I’m staying away from him in auctions. Holliday is the more intriguing fantasy play for me. He’s a top 5 outfielder and someone who I really like to have a very strong season. I think Berkman still gets a little respect because of his name and his switch-hitting abilities, so Holliday will still see some solid pitches. He will also be more apt to steal bases since Berkman won’t be able to get that many hits. All-in-all, I think the concoction is right for Holliday to have a strong fantasy season and I expect him to deliver in a big way. Rasmus is the other guy to take a look at. I’m thinking he’s more the 2nd half player, not the 1st half player from last year. Keep that in mind when you draft him. If he’s a guy that falls, and I can see that happening, then pounce, but don’t be that guy in your league that reaches for Colby Rasmus, I think he’ll let you down. The other guy I want to talk about is Ryan Theriot. He always delivers, and will be a solid late round short-stop pickup for many teams.
Outside of Carpenter, I have made it clear I have little faith in the rest of this rotation. Could they all be viable options? Certainly. Do I think they’ll be viable fantasy options? No. I am very pessimistic about this pitching staff’s prospects for the year. I don’t know why I’m as down on the Cards, but I just worry that this rotation’s pitching woes could be scary. The outlook for Carpenter is good, but I just don’t see it from the rest of these guys. I like Franklin as a good value closer in the middle-late rounds, so keep an eye on him if you’re in the hunt for a 1st or 2nd closer.
3. Chicago Cubs
I spent a lot of time looking at the Cubbies roster and asking myself if I really thought they could be better than the Cardinals this year. I looked and I looked and I thought and I thought, and I just couldn’t decide. So I needed to find that one thing that put the Cubs over the top, that one x-factor that would change my decision-making process. I decided that one thing that put them over the top was the acquisition of Matt Garza. I never really loved the guy in the AL East, but he still put up solid numbers in his Rays uniform. Looking at his career numbers now, it was silly of me to hate him, it was probably because I thought he was an overrated fantasy player, which he still may be. But he’s a pitcher who knows how to win games.
Offensively, I think this team has great potential and upside. There’s a big difference between an offense like this one which has some inconsistent performers with great upside and the Pirates who have inconsistent performers with not so much upside. This offense becomes a force to be reckoned with if Marlon Byrd, Starlin Castro, Alfonso Soriano, Geovanny Soto and Carlos Pena can find out how to click together. There is a good amount of upside with these guys, and I think that if two or three of them are clicking at a time, it forces opposing pitchers and teams to have to make some pretty difficult decisions. I have faith that this core of guys can put together a better offensive season than the Cardinals, but I also think they are capable of winning this division. Do I think they’ll play well enough to win this division or even taste the wildcard? No. But the offense is certainly there.
The pitching is certainly weaker than the top two teams in this division, but stronger than the bottom 3. With Ted Lilly on this team, I think this rotation is sort of scary, but the addition of Garza will really keep this team on the map when discussing their pitching staff. Carlos Zambrano was one of the best pitchers in baseball in the second half last season, and I have faith that he can return to the prominence he once had. The Cubs certainly think he’s worth a lot of money, and he definitely pitched like it last season. Behind him is Ryan Dempster, who struggled a little more in his second year as a starter, but I like him to have a good year for the Cubsters. Garza and Randy Wells provide a solid 3-4 in this division. Arch-nemesis Brad always like Randy Wells as a fantasy option, and this year I don’t, but I think he’s a solid pitcher who pitches to his defense. With Ramirez and Castro on the left side of that infield, and Byrd in Centerfield, that might not be a terrible thing. There are certainly some questions in the bullpen, I will most definitely concede that. But if Carlos Silva starts in the bullpen this season, he could be a solid long relief type guy should one of the starters like Andrew Cashner struggle. Former Notre Dame standout Jeff Samardzija hasn’t proven a lot as a reliever in the majors, but if he can get it together, then him, Sean Marshall, and Kerry Wood could be a solid bridge to Carlos Marmol.
Fantasy Outlook:
There are a lot of good value plays on this team. Ramirez will probably be the first fantasy player drafted from this team, and I look for him to be a good source of power from the hot corner. But if you take a look at guys like Byrd and Soriano, they can be good values from the outfield, and I certainly have faith that both those guys can put solid seasons together. Starlin Castro was pretty solid in the second half once he got acclimated to the majors, so I think he’s got great potential to make some noise at short with solid speed and a good batting average. Fukodome is one of those guys who’s a great baseball player but not a good fantasy player, I’d just stay away from him unless it’s late and you really think you need some batting average balance. Carlos Pena is a great value for me again this year, especially in OBP and OPS leagues. Sure he may hurt your batting average, but I think the power potential is great. The middle of this lineup is sort of meaty when you look at it, and Pena is a guy who knows how to take a walk. Keep that in mind for a utility spot late in the draft if you think you need some more power, which as I’ve said a million times, isn’t quite there this year.
From the pitching perspective, I can see Dempster, Zambrano and Silva having solid years and being solid values this year. They are all guys I recommend at the right price, and that price will be generally cheap since starting is so deep this year. Marmol strikes out so many guys. Sure he can be a little erratic and walk a ton of dudes too, but give the guy credit for always finding his way out of jams. I don’t think Wells is going to be a fantasy-worthy guy. You certainly shouldn’t draft him, but he’s a decent spot start in some places because he has dominated a few NL teams in his career.
2. Cincinnati Reds
If you’ve been a follower of The Knurve for a long time, you’ll know that I became infatuated with the Reds during the course of the last season. I love Joey Votto, I love Brandon Phillips, and for those who know be best, they know I have an unhealthy mancrush on Jay Bruce. While I certainly love this teams prospects this year, I have some slight concerns that I think will prevent them from winning this division again. The first of those concerns is Scott Rolen. There’s no question the Reds wouldn’t have been near as good as they were last year without Rolen, but I worry about his age and health. He showed some signs of breaking down in the 2nd half and I worry that he will be unable to stay healthy the whole season, which will most certainly hurt the Reds tremendously. There are also some inconsistencies on this offense that I have some worries about. They have a lot of power-strokers, but I worry about their ability to put the ball in play. Stubbs is as dynamic a leadoff guy as they come and Phillips is a fantastic number 2; however, those two guys, along with Rolen, Bruce and Jonny Gomes have all struggled at some point or another with their contact rates. I truly think that can hold a team back, and that will be the case with the Reds this year. This is certainly nitpicky, but in a division this close, I think you have to look at the little things in order to assess who can win a division, and this is certainly a little thing I worry about.
The Reds pitching is another slight concern for me. Do I like Jonny Cueto and Edinson Volquez? Absolutely. Do I worry about their consistencies? Absolutely. Both of these guys have always struggled with walking guys, and I don’t think either of them are going to get much better this year. Bronson Arroyo is one of those guys who is never the sexiest fantasy option, but knows how to pitch well enough to win. I think a solid 4 ERA guy like him is the type of pitcher that keeps teams in divisions, especially with this offense behind him. When you look at this team’s bullpen, it’s probably the second strongest in the NL behind the Giants. Aroldis is going to be solid in the pen this year, but not great. But Nick Masset and Bill Bray are solid arms in that pen. Francisco Cordero always makes the Reds sweat out their victories, but he always gets his 35+ saves and the Reds are always happy, so why should that change now?
Fantasy Outlook:
I have the 9th pick in my draft this season, and I am excited about the prospects of getting Joey Votto on my team. He was right there in the Triple Crown hunt this year, and I expect more of the same this season. I like him a ton out of 1st base options because he is good for 10-15 steals like Pujols is, but may hit 5-10 less homers. Brandon Phillips is another noteworthy guy. I really like him to have a solid year. He has been progressing each year for the past few seasons, and I can see him turning in another solid 20-20 campaign. He will also benefit from hitting in front of Votto by scoring more runs, and Dusty might have him steal a little more if Rolen doesn’t pan out. Jay Bruce should be a great power option this year. He was looked at as a 5-tool prospect, but he looks like he’s tried to establish a power stroke, and I think he could hit 30 this season, but I worry about his batting average. And I don’t think he will steal 10 bags, but if he steals 5, that could still be solid. I can see Bruce ending as a top 5 outfielder in terms of power numbers, he’s a mid-round guy to target if you feel like you didn’t get the power necessary with your first 5 or 6 picks. Drew Stubbs is the other fantasy player who has immense potential and upside. The reason I remain mum on Stubbs is because I think he could be great, but at the same time he’s so young and raw. He can easily go 20-30, but I don’t know if he’s going to do it this year. The speed may certainly be there, but I think he’s too much of a free swinger to be extremely successful this year. Much like Colby Rasmus, he needs a touch more plate patience before I can consider him elite and draft him where he’s projected to go.
The toughest thing about this team as a whole is how to gauge their youth alongside the upside. There’s no doubting the talent that Cueto and Volquez have, but I worry that they’re never going to amount to being elite fantasy pitchers. They both walk too many guys. That being said, they have great strikeout potential and both are solid players, but I caution the owner who thinks one of these guys is going to be an elite sleeper, I just don’t see it, so draft accordingly. Travis Wood had an outstanding rookie campaign and garnered a lot of attention, especially after his near-perfect game against the Phils. I do believe in the sophomore slump, but I think Wood and Mike Leake’s control is pretty solid, and that’s one thing that only improves with age. Will they each strike out a ton of guys? Not at all, but they ascended through the Reds farm system (Leake never pitched in the minors) so quickly because they both knew how to throw strikes. From a value standpoint, I like Leake and Wood a lot better than I like Volquez and Cueto.
1. Milwaukee Brewers
I understand that this is a shocker. I understand that picking the Cards to finish 4th is somewhat crazy, wild, nuts, maybe even incomprehensible. But this Brewers team made some crucial acquisitions in the offseason that I think will truly put this team over the top. I love the replacement of Alcides Escobar with Yuniesky Betancourt in terms of production. I love the pitching acquisitions too. Replacing over-the-hill Trevor Hoffman with stud set-up guy Takashi Saito will help this team tremendously. Gallardo is a stud, and combining him with Greinke and Shaun Marcum will make people cookoo for cocoa puffs. I know their fourth is nowhere near what the Phillies or Giants have, but Randy Wolf is a solid number 4. I also like Chris Narveson to round out this rotation at number 5. I HAVE to include a disclaimer that I worry about the health of Greinke and Marcum, but I’m staying optimistic that they are going to be healthy enough and pitch well enough to propel this talented team to the NL Central title. The bullpen is also extremely tasty. Saito and LaTroy Hawkins are solid setup guys along with Kam Loe and Zach Braddock and Manny Parra. I think there is so much experience there, and I can see them holding it down well enough to win games with this explosive offense.
From an offensive standpoint, what’s not to like here. Rickie Weeks had a solid year leading off for this team, scored a ton of runs, and posted great numbers. Granted, he could be seen as a health risk, but I am staying optimistic that this team stays healthy. Corey Hart is another guy who’s struggling with some rib issues, but if there’s a time to be hurt and figure everything out it’s April and not August. Lingering issues are a problem, but I think the Brewers know they’d be wise to take their time with Hart. Fielder’s contract year motivation will be strong, and I think he will have such a strong year and continue to rake. The Hebrew Hammer Ryan Braun is also a stud who I look to have a great year. I am very excited about his prospects for this year. The combination Braun and Fielder provide is so dynamic and powerful and will make the pitchers in the NL quiver with fear. Casey McGehee could end this season being the strongest hitter in the NL Central, and nobody knows about him. He will also rake behind Braun and Fielder. Both those guys get on base at such an impressive clip, that I can see McGehee bringing them home a ton, because they’re not too good for their home.
Fantasy Outlook:
I think I’ve harped enough on all the offensive prowess of this team. Braun is clearly a top 3 outfielder, and you should pay for him as such because on top of his 30 homers, he will steal 15-20 bags and hit for a solid average. Fielder is one of those elite power guys you can take in the 2nd round that will help you tremendously. Use that first pick for an outfielder like Braun or that elite 3rd baseman like David Wright. McGehee is a guy I want on my teams because he comes at such a good value. He has progressed every year, and I think Fielder and Braun will both be even stronger than they were last year, so keep an eye on him. Weeks is certainly an injury liability, but him continuing to lead off makes this team so solid. Corey Hart has struggled with injuries a little bit in spring training, but I look for him to put together another solid year.
Quite simply, I like each of the top 4 starters for the Brew Crew this season. They will all come at good values and they are all guys who have been there before. Marcum is a trendy pick, Gallardo’s got great strikeout potential, Greinke will be healthy and will benefit from the move to the NL and Randy Wolf’s a pretty consistent K guy who never seemed to get a lot of run support. I also really like Axford at the end of this bullpen. Clearly I’ve got big expectations for this whole team.
I foresee some big changes coming again to the Majors’ largest division. There are some certainties, though, like the fact that the Pittsburgh Pirates will probably come in last place. However, I think some new acquisitions by one team has put them ahead of the rest.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pittsburgh Pirates will not lose 100 games this year. Losing 100 is pretty darn tough to do, but leave it to the Pirates to figure out how to do it. I feel extremely confident that this team will be better because their youth got a lot of experience under their belts last season, and I think the pitching is much better than it was last year. The Bucs brought in a few hitters like Garret Atkins, Matt Diaz and Lyle Overbay who will surely help a little (not a lot). But some of the pitching acquisitions the Pirates made will make them a much better ballclub.
There really is a lot to like between Neil Walker, Jose Tabata, Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutchen. These guys will be the first four that opposing pitchers see every game. Between those four, there’s a little speed, a little pop and a lot of talent. I really like this young nucleus of players. The main problem with this team is whoever’s hitting 5-9. The rest of the team will struggle to keep pace with these four, who I see having solid seasons at the dish.
I like the acquisitions of Scott Olsen and Kevin Correia for the Pirates, but let’s be realistic when we say that these guys are simply not good enough to make the team legitimately competitive. Maholm and Ohlendorf are not very good, and James McDonald is very young and unproven, but has great upside. The bullpen is probably the best thing the Pirates have going for them. I am a big believer in Joel Hanrahan closing games, and All-Star Evan Meek is a legitimate setup man who could make big moves for the closer spot should Hanrahan struggle. Joe Beimel is also a great lefty specialist who I think will single-handedly win at least 5 games because he can get Prince Fielder and Joey Votto out. The Pirates didn’t have a bullpen guy that could get those lefties out last year.
Fantasy Outlook:
McCutchen is the obvious first name to talk about here. I’ve watched a few of his games, and he might be the most exciting player in this division. He’s lightning fast, he can hit for power, and he’s got that cool little dreadlock ponytail that he rocks. I like him a lot as a top 10 outfielder because he truly does a little bit of everything. When he leaves the Pirates in a few years he’ll be making his weight in gold because he’s THAT good. He’s one of those guys I definitely want to target this season because he not only gives you that great speed in the outfield that I talked about in my draft day manifesto, but he also has 20 home run potential. I look at Neil Walker as having a lot of potential in this league. He hits for average, he’s got a little bit of pop, and he’s a switch hitter. I really like him as a very cheap 2nd base option who won’t hurt you at all. Pedro Alvarez is going pretty high in drafts, and I know exactly why. He can give you that elite power you desire. He may not drive in as many runs as someone like A-Rod, who has an infinitely better lineup around him, but I like Alvarez to put up similar numbers in all the other counting stats. I worry a little bit about Alvarez’s batting average risk, but if he hits 30 homers, he will be 20 times more valuable to you than a Mark Reynolds would be. The other guy I have to mention is Jose Tabata. Tabata will probably lead off for this team, and I can see him doing a lot of damage on the base paths. Remember what I said about cheap speed and drafting power from the infield out, guys like Tabata are the exact reason why.
Correia, McDonald and Olsen are all guys I’m not going to draft, but I’m going to keep an eye on. I think all of these guys have great potential if they’re healthy. It’s going to be interesting to see: how Correia does away from PETCO, McDonald handles his inexperience, and how Olsen’s health issues are maintained. Overall, there could be value here, but only in deeper leagues at this point. I really like Hanrahan as the closer of this team, and Meek is obviously a handcuff you’d want to keep an eye on.
5. Houston Astros
Quite frankly, this offense is atrocious. I’ve always been a huge fan of Hunter Pence and I think Carlos Lee will pick it back up this season. But outside of those two, this team just isn’t capable of making any noise this season. This team reminds me a lot of Bobby Hurley: parts of what they do are solid, but when push comes to shove, they’re just not great players. Offensively, this team will struggle depending on guys like Clint Barmes and Bill Hall. It’s very possible that great prospects Brett Wallace and Chris Johnson can put together solid seasons, which would propel this team to 4th or 3rd place; however, I just don’t see it this year. Pence is fantastic, and I think I love him because he’s just the goofiest looking player on the field, but plays so hard and so well.
On the mound, this rotation has some potential, but for the most part, their rotation is so hot and cold. Brett Myers was sensational last season, and I look for him to anchor this rotation, but Wandy Rodriguez is a guy I’ve never fully trusted, especially on the road. Bud Norris, Nelson Figueroa and J.A. Happ round out this rotation. I don’t want to overestimate this rotation’s potential because I can see them being successful, I just don’t think they’re all going to put it together enough this year to win the necessary amount of games. The bullpen is also pretty bad. Brandon Lyon is going to be solid closing games out, but the youth and inexperience of the rest of this bullpen will certainly blow a lot of good starts for this anemic rotation.
Fantasy Outlook:
Hunter Pence is the obvious name to look at here. He is one of those guys who you will draft and fall in love with immediately because of all he does for your squad. He steals bases, he has nice pop, and he does it all with a good average. In a shallow outfield, the potential 25-15 season Pence puts up will help your team tremendously. Carlos Lee’s 1st base eligibility will certainly help his value in case you decide to wait on power there. Lee is one of those guys who I can see turning in a solid season. I want to think something was terribly wrong last year that made his batting average dip so low. If he can somehow rebound to .275 and equal the counting numbers he posted last year, he’ll be a top 25 outfielder and top 15 first baseman, so he’s a guy I’m looking out for. I want to caution readers about Michael Bourn. Speed is obviously deep in the outfield this season, but I don’t know if he’s worth the price he’s being valued at right now because he could KILL your batting average. In my opinion, find your speed elsewhere with guys like Jose Tabata who may not steal 50, but won’t kill your batting average either.
When you look at this rotation, there’s a lot of potential. Brett Myers and Wandy Rodriguez will be the main names to look at, and I like Myers a whole heck of a lot better for this season. He’s so skilled and seems to have everything together, which is very exciting. I want to direct attention to Bud Norris. He’s one of those guys that you might not want to draft or bid on, but his strikeout potential is too great to just overlook. If he can figure out his control issues/damage control problems, then he could have ace potential. It seems like these strikeout guys figure out how to control everything eventually. He might still be a year away, but I like the strides he might make this year. He is a Brandon Morrow-lite. Brandon Lyon is another solid, cheap closer option who I can see having a pretty good year, but nothing to write home about. He will keep his job the whole season if that means anything to anybody.
4. St. Louis Cardinals
I spent a very long time looking at this team relative to the Cubs, and I wrote the Cubs into fourth place originally. But the more I look at the Cubs as a unit and the more I look at the Cardinals as a unit, the Cubs are just better. The loss of Adam Wainwright is going to be too big to absorb for this team. I know they have Albert Pujols, and obviously there’s a lot to be said about his presence, but he just doesn’t have the surrounding cast offensively outside of Holliday to make this team overly competitive. I still think they’re capable of finishing as a .500 ballclub, but as a whole this offense just might not be good enough. The reason they couldn’t compete last year was because of their offensive weaknesses and I don’t see Lance in my pants Berkman as the be-all end-all to this teams problems. If Rasmus has another solid year, that could propel this team into 3rd, but I just don’t see it. Skip Schumaker and David Freese are weak links in this offense. I think this offense is certainly good enough to keep this team afloat, but the rotation will kill them.
I rode the Jaime Garcia bandwagon all last season. But in looking at him as the 2nd starter with a whole heck of a lot more pressure and coming off the season AFTER his Tommy John, I worry about him. He could surprise me with a solid year as he did all of last year, but I just don’t think he’s a number 2 at all and if he’s not clicking, I worry about 3-5. Injury is always a risk with Carpenter, so if he has any glitches in the system, and he’s had a few this spring, then there could be some more trouble brewing with this rotation. Jake Westbrook, Kyle McClellan and Kyle Lohse just don’t do it for me. The biggest X-Factor for this team will certainly be Dave Duncan. He’s a pitching coach who knows how to coach pitchers more so than many coaches in this league. I just don’t know if the talent is there. The bullpen is certainly there, though. I like Motte, Boggs, and Miller handing the ball to Franklin. It’s one of those bullpens that may not be overly sexy, but they certainly get the job done.
Fantasy Outlook:
I’m not going to waste my time by talking about Albert Pujols because he’s the best player in the world. Take him first if you have the first overall pick, but I’m staying away from him in auctions. Holliday is the more intriguing fantasy play for me. He’s a top 5 outfielder and someone who I really like to have a very strong season. I think Berkman still gets a little respect because of his name and his switch-hitting abilities, so Holliday will still see some solid pitches. He will also be more apt to steal bases since Berkman won’t be able to get that many hits. All-in-all, I think the concoction is right for Holliday to have a strong fantasy season and I expect him to deliver in a big way. Rasmus is the other guy to take a look at. I’m thinking he’s more the 2nd half player, not the 1st half player from last year. Keep that in mind when you draft him. If he’s a guy that falls, and I can see that happening, then pounce, but don’t be that guy in your league that reaches for Colby Rasmus, I think he’ll let you down. The other guy I want to talk about is Ryan Theriot. He always delivers, and will be a solid late round short-stop pickup for many teams.
Outside of Carpenter, I have made it clear I have little faith in the rest of this rotation. Could they all be viable options? Certainly. Do I think they’ll be viable fantasy options? No. I am very pessimistic about this pitching staff’s prospects for the year. I don’t know why I’m as down on the Cards, but I just worry that this rotation’s pitching woes could be scary. The outlook for Carpenter is good, but I just don’t see it from the rest of these guys. I like Franklin as a good value closer in the middle-late rounds, so keep an eye on him if you’re in the hunt for a 1st or 2nd closer.
3. Chicago Cubs
I spent a lot of time looking at the Cubbies roster and asking myself if I really thought they could be better than the Cardinals this year. I looked and I looked and I thought and I thought, and I just couldn’t decide. So I needed to find that one thing that put the Cubs over the top, that one x-factor that would change my decision-making process. I decided that one thing that put them over the top was the acquisition of Matt Garza. I never really loved the guy in the AL East, but he still put up solid numbers in his Rays uniform. Looking at his career numbers now, it was silly of me to hate him, it was probably because I thought he was an overrated fantasy player, which he still may be. But he’s a pitcher who knows how to win games.
Offensively, I think this team has great potential and upside. There’s a big difference between an offense like this one which has some inconsistent performers with great upside and the Pirates who have inconsistent performers with not so much upside. This offense becomes a force to be reckoned with if Marlon Byrd, Starlin Castro, Alfonso Soriano, Geovanny Soto and Carlos Pena can find out how to click together. There is a good amount of upside with these guys, and I think that if two or three of them are clicking at a time, it forces opposing pitchers and teams to have to make some pretty difficult decisions. I have faith that this core of guys can put together a better offensive season than the Cardinals, but I also think they are capable of winning this division. Do I think they’ll play well enough to win this division or even taste the wildcard? No. But the offense is certainly there.
The pitching is certainly weaker than the top two teams in this division, but stronger than the bottom 3. With Ted Lilly on this team, I think this rotation is sort of scary, but the addition of Garza will really keep this team on the map when discussing their pitching staff. Carlos Zambrano was one of the best pitchers in baseball in the second half last season, and I have faith that he can return to the prominence he once had. The Cubs certainly think he’s worth a lot of money, and he definitely pitched like it last season. Behind him is Ryan Dempster, who struggled a little more in his second year as a starter, but I like him to have a good year for the Cubsters. Garza and Randy Wells provide a solid 3-4 in this division. Arch-nemesis Brad always like Randy Wells as a fantasy option, and this year I don’t, but I think he’s a solid pitcher who pitches to his defense. With Ramirez and Castro on the left side of that infield, and Byrd in Centerfield, that might not be a terrible thing. There are certainly some questions in the bullpen, I will most definitely concede that. But if Carlos Silva starts in the bullpen this season, he could be a solid long relief type guy should one of the starters like Andrew Cashner struggle. Former Notre Dame standout Jeff Samardzija hasn’t proven a lot as a reliever in the majors, but if he can get it together, then him, Sean Marshall, and Kerry Wood could be a solid bridge to Carlos Marmol.
Fantasy Outlook:
There are a lot of good value plays on this team. Ramirez will probably be the first fantasy player drafted from this team, and I look for him to be a good source of power from the hot corner. But if you take a look at guys like Byrd and Soriano, they can be good values from the outfield, and I certainly have faith that both those guys can put solid seasons together. Starlin Castro was pretty solid in the second half once he got acclimated to the majors, so I think he’s got great potential to make some noise at short with solid speed and a good batting average. Fukodome is one of those guys who’s a great baseball player but not a good fantasy player, I’d just stay away from him unless it’s late and you really think you need some batting average balance. Carlos Pena is a great value for me again this year, especially in OBP and OPS leagues. Sure he may hurt your batting average, but I think the power potential is great. The middle of this lineup is sort of meaty when you look at it, and Pena is a guy who knows how to take a walk. Keep that in mind for a utility spot late in the draft if you think you need some more power, which as I’ve said a million times, isn’t quite there this year.
From the pitching perspective, I can see Dempster, Zambrano and Silva having solid years and being solid values this year. They are all guys I recommend at the right price, and that price will be generally cheap since starting is so deep this year. Marmol strikes out so many guys. Sure he can be a little erratic and walk a ton of dudes too, but give the guy credit for always finding his way out of jams. I don’t think Wells is going to be a fantasy-worthy guy. You certainly shouldn’t draft him, but he’s a decent spot start in some places because he has dominated a few NL teams in his career.
2. Cincinnati Reds
If you’ve been a follower of The Knurve for a long time, you’ll know that I became infatuated with the Reds during the course of the last season. I love Joey Votto, I love Brandon Phillips, and for those who know be best, they know I have an unhealthy mancrush on Jay Bruce. While I certainly love this teams prospects this year, I have some slight concerns that I think will prevent them from winning this division again. The first of those concerns is Scott Rolen. There’s no question the Reds wouldn’t have been near as good as they were last year without Rolen, but I worry about his age and health. He showed some signs of breaking down in the 2nd half and I worry that he will be unable to stay healthy the whole season, which will most certainly hurt the Reds tremendously. There are also some inconsistencies on this offense that I have some worries about. They have a lot of power-strokers, but I worry about their ability to put the ball in play. Stubbs is as dynamic a leadoff guy as they come and Phillips is a fantastic number 2; however, those two guys, along with Rolen, Bruce and Jonny Gomes have all struggled at some point or another with their contact rates. I truly think that can hold a team back, and that will be the case with the Reds this year. This is certainly nitpicky, but in a division this close, I think you have to look at the little things in order to assess who can win a division, and this is certainly a little thing I worry about.
The Reds pitching is another slight concern for me. Do I like Jonny Cueto and Edinson Volquez? Absolutely. Do I worry about their consistencies? Absolutely. Both of these guys have always struggled with walking guys, and I don’t think either of them are going to get much better this year. Bronson Arroyo is one of those guys who is never the sexiest fantasy option, but knows how to pitch well enough to win. I think a solid 4 ERA guy like him is the type of pitcher that keeps teams in divisions, especially with this offense behind him. When you look at this team’s bullpen, it’s probably the second strongest in the NL behind the Giants. Aroldis is going to be solid in the pen this year, but not great. But Nick Masset and Bill Bray are solid arms in that pen. Francisco Cordero always makes the Reds sweat out their victories, but he always gets his 35+ saves and the Reds are always happy, so why should that change now?
Fantasy Outlook:
I have the 9th pick in my draft this season, and I am excited about the prospects of getting Joey Votto on my team. He was right there in the Triple Crown hunt this year, and I expect more of the same this season. I like him a ton out of 1st base options because he is good for 10-15 steals like Pujols is, but may hit 5-10 less homers. Brandon Phillips is another noteworthy guy. I really like him to have a solid year. He has been progressing each year for the past few seasons, and I can see him turning in another solid 20-20 campaign. He will also benefit from hitting in front of Votto by scoring more runs, and Dusty might have him steal a little more if Rolen doesn’t pan out. Jay Bruce should be a great power option this year. He was looked at as a 5-tool prospect, but he looks like he’s tried to establish a power stroke, and I think he could hit 30 this season, but I worry about his batting average. And I don’t think he will steal 10 bags, but if he steals 5, that could still be solid. I can see Bruce ending as a top 5 outfielder in terms of power numbers, he’s a mid-round guy to target if you feel like you didn’t get the power necessary with your first 5 or 6 picks. Drew Stubbs is the other fantasy player who has immense potential and upside. The reason I remain mum on Stubbs is because I think he could be great, but at the same time he’s so young and raw. He can easily go 20-30, but I don’t know if he’s going to do it this year. The speed may certainly be there, but I think he’s too much of a free swinger to be extremely successful this year. Much like Colby Rasmus, he needs a touch more plate patience before I can consider him elite and draft him where he’s projected to go.
The toughest thing about this team as a whole is how to gauge their youth alongside the upside. There’s no doubting the talent that Cueto and Volquez have, but I worry that they’re never going to amount to being elite fantasy pitchers. They both walk too many guys. That being said, they have great strikeout potential and both are solid players, but I caution the owner who thinks one of these guys is going to be an elite sleeper, I just don’t see it, so draft accordingly. Travis Wood had an outstanding rookie campaign and garnered a lot of attention, especially after his near-perfect game against the Phils. I do believe in the sophomore slump, but I think Wood and Mike Leake’s control is pretty solid, and that’s one thing that only improves with age. Will they each strike out a ton of guys? Not at all, but they ascended through the Reds farm system (Leake never pitched in the minors) so quickly because they both knew how to throw strikes. From a value standpoint, I like Leake and Wood a lot better than I like Volquez and Cueto.
1. Milwaukee Brewers
I understand that this is a shocker. I understand that picking the Cards to finish 4th is somewhat crazy, wild, nuts, maybe even incomprehensible. But this Brewers team made some crucial acquisitions in the offseason that I think will truly put this team over the top. I love the replacement of Alcides Escobar with Yuniesky Betancourt in terms of production. I love the pitching acquisitions too. Replacing over-the-hill Trevor Hoffman with stud set-up guy Takashi Saito will help this team tremendously. Gallardo is a stud, and combining him with Greinke and Shaun Marcum will make people cookoo for cocoa puffs. I know their fourth is nowhere near what the Phillies or Giants have, but Randy Wolf is a solid number 4. I also like Chris Narveson to round out this rotation at number 5. I HAVE to include a disclaimer that I worry about the health of Greinke and Marcum, but I’m staying optimistic that they are going to be healthy enough and pitch well enough to propel this talented team to the NL Central title. The bullpen is also extremely tasty. Saito and LaTroy Hawkins are solid setup guys along with Kam Loe and Zach Braddock and Manny Parra. I think there is so much experience there, and I can see them holding it down well enough to win games with this explosive offense.
From an offensive standpoint, what’s not to like here. Rickie Weeks had a solid year leading off for this team, scored a ton of runs, and posted great numbers. Granted, he could be seen as a health risk, but I am staying optimistic that this team stays healthy. Corey Hart is another guy who’s struggling with some rib issues, but if there’s a time to be hurt and figure everything out it’s April and not August. Lingering issues are a problem, but I think the Brewers know they’d be wise to take their time with Hart. Fielder’s contract year motivation will be strong, and I think he will have such a strong year and continue to rake. The Hebrew Hammer Ryan Braun is also a stud who I look to have a great year. I am very excited about his prospects for this year. The combination Braun and Fielder provide is so dynamic and powerful and will make the pitchers in the NL quiver with fear. Casey McGehee could end this season being the strongest hitter in the NL Central, and nobody knows about him. He will also rake behind Braun and Fielder. Both those guys get on base at such an impressive clip, that I can see McGehee bringing them home a ton, because they’re not too good for their home.
Fantasy Outlook:
I think I’ve harped enough on all the offensive prowess of this team. Braun is clearly a top 3 outfielder, and you should pay for him as such because on top of his 30 homers, he will steal 15-20 bags and hit for a solid average. Fielder is one of those elite power guys you can take in the 2nd round that will help you tremendously. Use that first pick for an outfielder like Braun or that elite 3rd baseman like David Wright. McGehee is a guy I want on my teams because he comes at such a good value. He has progressed every year, and I think Fielder and Braun will both be even stronger than they were last year, so keep an eye on him. Weeks is certainly an injury liability, but him continuing to lead off makes this team so solid. Corey Hart has struggled with injuries a little bit in spring training, but I look for him to put together another solid year.
Quite simply, I like each of the top 4 starters for the Brew Crew this season. They will all come at good values and they are all guys who have been there before. Marcum is a trendy pick, Gallardo’s got great strikeout potential, Greinke will be healthy and will benefit from the move to the NL and Randy Wolf’s a pretty consistent K guy who never seemed to get a lot of run support. I also really like Axford at the end of this bullpen. Clearly I’ve got big expectations for this whole team.
Monday, March 21, 2011
NL West Preview....
I want to preface this season’s baseball projections by saying that this year has been extremely hard to predict on many levels. I think there are a lot of contenders this year that could win the whole thing. I think we’re going to see the most exciting September in a while.
In this preview I will give you my predictions for the regular season as well as a season outlook on every team including some relevant fantasy players on each team that you should take note of. I will be posting The Knurve’s predictions by division, so if you want to go straight to a division of interest, click on the right side under March and you can find that division.
So, without further due HERE is The Knurve’s comprehensive season preview:
NL West
Predicting the National League West is a little like predicting the next stupid thing Charlie Sheen is going to say: you don’t really care that much, but you have to take note of it. Were the San Francisco Giants the best team in baseball last year? Probably not. Were they good enough to win a World Series? Absolutely. The fact of the matter is that baseball is played a little differently out west in the National League because the offenses aren’t prolific and the pitching HAS to be good. Evaluating a team in this division and in the NL involves a little more stringent breakdown of the pitching staffs, because that is what wins this division.
5. San Diego Padres
Let’s go ahead and just get these guys out of the way. I feel bad for this team, I really do. They are a small market team that doesn’t generate the revenue to keep their hometown hero around. They are young, they are inexperienced, they are unproven. As a whole, I have little faith in this team’s offense. The loss of Adrian Gonzalez is pretty rough, but replacing him with Brad Hawpe doesn’t help matters too much. I like the additions of Orlando Hudson and Jason Bartlett, but I just don’t think those guys provide the pop or upside to bring enough wins for this team to be competitive. All that being said, Chase Headley is left with a daunting task of batting 3rd, which I think will be too tall a task for him. They are taking a flier on Cameron Maybin, who will be solid defensively for them, but as a whole this offensive unit could be in for a long year.
The facts are simple: if you pitch in PETCO, you are a good pitcher. It will be interesting to see how young Mat Latos responds in his second full season after seeing the workload increase he did last year. Clayton Richard, Wade LeBlanc and Tim Stauffer will all be solid as a result of pitching most of their games in PETCO, but I can’t see them being strong enough throughout the whole season. A lot of the NL West deals with timely hitting, and even though these pitchers aren’t terrible, they can be susceptible to the timely hit. That being said, I’m curious to see how Aaron Harang responds to PETCO after pitching for years in the bandbox known as the Great American Smallpark. They Padres starters held the lowest ERA in the majors for a lot of last year and I can honestly see that continuing this year, but when your offense is this bad, it’s hard to consistently pull out wins. The bullpen is great. Mike Adams and Luke Gregerson handing off to Heath Bell will surely help this team tremendously. But with the plethora of rumors surrounding Heath Bell being traded, it’s certainly not going to help matters when one of those two or Chad Qualls is closing games for the Padres.
Fantasy Outlook:
Offensively, there’s really nobody on this team I’m gung-ho about. Ryan Ludwick will probably get those 20 homers at a pretty solid discount, Will Venable could be a good source of cheap speed if he can figure out how to hit the ball. Jason Bartlett is used to playing in pitchers parks, so if he can return to his 2009 form at all that will help owners, but he’s not a guy that you’re going to draft. I bought into the Chase Headley hype when he was a young prospect, but I don’t know if his major league ceiling goes much higher than a 20-15 season with a solid batting average. I don’t think he’ll get there this year, though. The final noteworthy offensive player for the Pads is Cameron Maybin. Maybe he needed a change of scenery, and he’s certainly an outfielder that I’d keep an eye on, but it’s looking more and more like he’s going to be a bust. If you’re the Marlins, it’s either tough to let a guy like Maybin go because you gave up Miggy for him, but that decision can be easy if you think Maybin is really bad. Maybe Cameron Maybin’s just really bad.
It’s always a good idea to start a Padres pitcher at PETCO. Keep that in mind for spot starts as you may need them, but I don’t think any of their starters should be drafted outside of Latos. If I were to have to pick a guy in the rotation besides Latos that I am optimistic about, it’s probably Stauffer. He always killed it as a reliever, and I think the move to the rotation could be good for him. He got a few spot starts for the Pads last year and performed exceptionally well in them, so I will be keeping an eye out for him as a replacement for a starter who struggles in April. It’s hard to predict the season Heath Bell will have with such a bad offense and the likelihood that he gets traded, but he’s obviously a great option for an elite closer.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
It’s sort of hard for me to pick the Diamondbacks to finish 4th in this division, because I think they are a great team who has done the proper patchwork to their bullpen to be more successful in their division. Their offense might be the strongest in the division, but I still think their rotation and pitching need a little work. They are relying on some pretty unreliable names to win them games and I worry that it might fall flat on their face. They still have the worst pitching staff in this division from top to bottom, but I think they have made a few critical additions that will make them more successful than they were last year.
Stephen Drew, Justin Upton, Kelly Johnson, Chris Young and Miguel Montero are all good hitters who I expect to perform again this season like they did last year. This team will certainly miss Adam LaRoche, but Melvin Mora is pretty solid defensively, and if Montero is healthy for the whole year, he will certainly help the D-back’s efforts.
I mentioned the lack of reliability of this rotation and I don’t think that’s to be overstated. Daniel Hudson showed much promise last year and has been a great prospect. Joe Saunders, Ian Kennedy, Armando Gallaraga and Barry Enright are all good, but not great. Good enough to beat the Padres and probably the Dodgers offense, but not great enough to outpitch the Giants or Rockies.
Fantasy Outlook:
Let’s start with Justin Upton. I just read something that said his shoulder might not be completely healthy and if he tries to over swing like he did last year, he could be in trouble. Shoulders are a big problem when it comes to power (just ask his brother). All this being said, I’m a little worried about Upton’s prospects for this season. Part of me loves Justin Upton and wants to see him perform, but the other part of me thinks he may still be hurt and won’t show us this year what he’s fully capable of. I think Kelly Johnson benefitted greatly by playing in Chase Field and he could be a great source of 20-homer power from the keystone. I think this is the year for Stephen Drew. I just have one of those feelings that he will go 20-15 and hit .280 so long as th e people around him stay healthy, which isn’t a given. Chris Young should turn in another 20-20 performance but may hurt your team’s batting average. It’s always hard to find good options at catcher, and I think Miguel Montero has great potential. He‘s slipped through the cracks a little big because of his injury last season, but I think he could be due for a solid season and will be a great value pick.
You know your team might not be that great when your best fantasy option is one guy who is all upside. I think Daniel Hudson could turn a solid year in for his first full season, but there isn’t a whole heck of a lot of upside behind him. Enright showed stretches of goodness last year, Gallaraga pitches heavily to his defense when he may not be in the ballparks to do so in the NL West. I really like J.J. Putz at the back end of the bullpen. He will keep the job the whole year, and I like his prospects of converting most of his opportunities.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
The past few years for the Dodgers have been the offensive class of the NL West, but this year, it’s going to be their pitching that keeps them competitive. When you look at this starting rotation, they mix exciting youth with calming experience. The offense was not very great last year without Manny and they’re replacing Manny, Russell Martin, and Orlando Hudson with Jay Gibbons, Rod Barajas, and Juan Uribe. My concerns about this offense are big, but I expect Matt Kemp to bounce back and have a great year, and Furcal is still elite if he can stay healthy, which is obviously not a given as he approaches his mid-30’s. There are certainly questions about Casey Blake’s production value and James Loney’s ability to get big hits. But I truly believe Andre Ethier’s struggles in the 2nd half relative to the first half were because his finger never fully recovered, but I expect him to do big things for the Dodgers this year.
I’m going to go ahead and say it: Ted Lilly might be the most underrated pitcher in the majors. He is as consistent as they come, he can strike guys out, he allows practically no base runners, and he knows the meaning of damage-control when he does allow base runners. When you combine a consistent Lilly with a consistent Hiroki Kuroda you have a great back end of a rotation. When you look at the front end of that rotation in Billingsley and member of the tribe Clayton Kershaw, I think this rotation will certainly make some noise in this division. The bullpen is also solid. Kuo is one of the strongest setup men in the league and Broxton is a big hulking closer who, despite showing that he was human last year, is a solid pitcher. Other guys in that bullpen like Troncoso, Guerrier and Jansen are all solid enough to keep them in games with the amount of close games this team will hand them.
Fantasy Outlook:
I have mentioned that Matt Kemp will certainly be a great rebound candidate and since he is going in the mid 2nd to mid 3rd round, he is going to be a cheaper value that will help your team tremendously. I fully expect numbers close to 30-30 and I want to know what, if any, motivation he plays in the sexual nature of his girlfriend Rihanna’s songs. Ethier is the next obvious guy to discuss. I have belabored the lack of depth in the outfield discussion, and Ethier will be dominant this season if he’s healthy. I don’t see him hitting the .320+ he was knocking before his injury last year, but if he sticks around .290 and hits 30ish homers this year, it’ll be a great success. Rafa Furcal is the last notable offensive player to talk about. I want to assume health and I want guys like Furcal to stay healthy, because it lets us see their full potential. I want to see Furcal go 15-25 with a great batting average, and that’s certainly what he’s capable of if he’s healthy, but his inability to stay healthy has depressed his value too much.
I can see this rotation’s top four being solid contributors in fantasy this year. They can all strike batters out and they all have great potential and a history of strong track records. When you look at starting iptching, the track record is the most important thing, and I predict great seasons for all four of those guys; sub-4ERA’s across the board and all with 150+K’s.
2. Colorado Rockies
I have really struggled with whether or not I think this team will finish 1st or 2nd in this division. A close look at this team, and you’ll see that they’re just not as strong on the rubber as the Giants are. The offensive numbers are bloated because they play in Coors Field and the Rockies will be relying heavily on guys like Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki to keep this offense moving. I don’t know if that’s a good thing, but I think there’s something to be said for a healthy Todd Helton, who has always been a strong timely hitter for the Rockies. I have my concerns about the youth on this team, but many people have had these same worries and these young hitters really know how to turn it on, especially in the 2nd half. This offense reminds me a lot of the NL version of the Twins in that they have a handful of guys who don’t get a lot of attention, but continue to help this team win games. Ian Stewart, Ryan Spilborghs and Seth Smith are those guys who continually produce for this team and help them win games.
If De La Rosa is healthy, Ubaldo can do even 2/3rds of what he did last season then this team will be great. I love love love love Jhoulys Chacin this year. He is one of my biggest fantasy sleepers and he is a dominant shutdown strikeout pitcher who I think everybody needs to keep an eye on. Jason Hammel is the 4th guy in this rotation and he’s just one of those guys who always pitches as well as the Rockies are hitting. The bullpen is also solid, especially with the addition of Matt Lindstrom. Lindstrom, Rafael Betancourt and Matt Belisle are all solid bullpen guys who will certainly outman some of the weaker offenses in this division. Huston Street is one of those guys I’ve always loved, but he’s struggled with his health in the past few years. If Street is healthy, it truly solidifies this bullpen as one that can take this team far.
Fantasy Outlook:
Ubaldo and Carlos Gonzalez both got extremely lucky last year. I said it. Both had extreme fortune, and from a fantasy perspective it’s hard to call a pitcher “elite” when he pitches at Coors, you have to be realistic. The fact that starting is so deep is a testament to the fact that Ubaldo is being drafted so late in many drafts already. To be perfectly honest, I see Jhoulys Chacin as being almost as good a pitcher as Ubaldo and look for Chacin to have similar numbers by season’s end. Carlos Gonzalez is simply NOT the best outfielder in this league, and I think that will shine through this season. I would not draft him. Ian Stewart will be a great power source from the hot corner if you can stomach the batting average hit he might provide. The other player of note here is Dexter Fowler. Fowler seemed to get it together at times in the 2nd half last year, and it looks like he’s going to have the leadoff spot the whole season. He has a great ability to hit for power, he can take walks, and he is a switch hitter, there’s a lot to like here. He could be a surprise candidate to go 10-30 or even higher if things fall into place for him.
I have talked about Ubaldo and Chacin, but I think De La Rosa will be the worst of the three and not a huge fantay contributor this season. I think he’s got potential to keep the Rockies in a lot of games, but I worry that he won’t be a formidable fantasy contributor.
1.San Francisco Giants
This is not the most talented team in the bigs, but last September and October they certainly were the best. If you are a constant reader of the blog, you’ll know that I projected this team to erase their 6 game deficit and take down the NL West, which is exactly what they did on the last day of the regular season. A look at the hitting, and it’s nothing to be overly concerned about. But a look at this pitching staff, and I think it’s right alongside the Phillies. WHAT!?!?! DID DAVID KAPLAN JUST SAY THAT?!?!?! I did and I feel very confident about it. It’s the exact reason I picked the Giants to win the NL last year and all the Phillies fans cried foul. I
I think Pat the Bat will be back to hit 25 homers for this team. I think the acquisition of Miguel Tejada is a perfect replacement for Uribe, Freddy Sanchez knows how to hit, Andres Torres is an intriguing leadoff switch-hitter, Aubrey Huff is going to have another monster year, and then there’s Buster. The best offense in this division is the one who knows how to get hits when they need them, and the experience this team gained in doing just that last October will help them win the division again this year.
Lincecum is a stud, Sanchez is a stud, Cain is a stud, Bumgarner is sort of a stud, and Barry Zito’s pretty good. That’s the most complete rotation in the majors and there’s no doubt about it. There aren’t any health problems with these guys, there are no innings issues with these guys other than Bumgarner, and they are all sexy and fearsome dudes. Then look at this bullpen and see Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt, Santiago Casilla and Ramon Ramirez and it’s an exciting and dangerous concoction of men in order to get the ball to the ultimate man, Brian Wilson. I fear the beard.
Fantasy Outlook:
Offensively, there’s not a ton here. I like Aubrey Huff as a late fantasy first baseman option. If he can hit for some semblance of what he did last year, I like him as a great value play either in your utility spot or as your 2nd first baseman. Andres Torres was a great pickup for a lot of people including myself and I think he could prove to be a solid speed-power option for many owners. I talked about how much I like Fowler and let there be no mistaking that Fowler’s upside is on a whole other level than Torres. Buster Posey is going to be great this season, and I think he should be taken off the board before Mauer at catcher. I love me some Buster.
In short, I would take all of these starters in a heartbeat if the price was right. They all pitch in a great pitchers park, they all have great strikeout potential, and they all know how to keep their composure. The biggest indicator of good pitching for me is damage control, and all these guys know how to pitch with runners in base and in high pressure situations. Brian Wilson is obviously a strong closer. This team plays in a lot of 3-2 and 2-1 games, but always comes out on the right side of them. Given the emphasis on pitching now, especially in the NL, I think this team could very much repeat as World Champions.
In this preview I will give you my predictions for the regular season as well as a season outlook on every team including some relevant fantasy players on each team that you should take note of. I will be posting The Knurve’s predictions by division, so if you want to go straight to a division of interest, click on the right side under March and you can find that division.
So, without further due HERE is The Knurve’s comprehensive season preview:
NL West
Predicting the National League West is a little like predicting the next stupid thing Charlie Sheen is going to say: you don’t really care that much, but you have to take note of it. Were the San Francisco Giants the best team in baseball last year? Probably not. Were they good enough to win a World Series? Absolutely. The fact of the matter is that baseball is played a little differently out west in the National League because the offenses aren’t prolific and the pitching HAS to be good. Evaluating a team in this division and in the NL involves a little more stringent breakdown of the pitching staffs, because that is what wins this division.
5. San Diego Padres
Let’s go ahead and just get these guys out of the way. I feel bad for this team, I really do. They are a small market team that doesn’t generate the revenue to keep their hometown hero around. They are young, they are inexperienced, they are unproven. As a whole, I have little faith in this team’s offense. The loss of Adrian Gonzalez is pretty rough, but replacing him with Brad Hawpe doesn’t help matters too much. I like the additions of Orlando Hudson and Jason Bartlett, but I just don’t think those guys provide the pop or upside to bring enough wins for this team to be competitive. All that being said, Chase Headley is left with a daunting task of batting 3rd, which I think will be too tall a task for him. They are taking a flier on Cameron Maybin, who will be solid defensively for them, but as a whole this offensive unit could be in for a long year.
The facts are simple: if you pitch in PETCO, you are a good pitcher. It will be interesting to see how young Mat Latos responds in his second full season after seeing the workload increase he did last year. Clayton Richard, Wade LeBlanc and Tim Stauffer will all be solid as a result of pitching most of their games in PETCO, but I can’t see them being strong enough throughout the whole season. A lot of the NL West deals with timely hitting, and even though these pitchers aren’t terrible, they can be susceptible to the timely hit. That being said, I’m curious to see how Aaron Harang responds to PETCO after pitching for years in the bandbox known as the Great American Smallpark. They Padres starters held the lowest ERA in the majors for a lot of last year and I can honestly see that continuing this year, but when your offense is this bad, it’s hard to consistently pull out wins. The bullpen is great. Mike Adams and Luke Gregerson handing off to Heath Bell will surely help this team tremendously. But with the plethora of rumors surrounding Heath Bell being traded, it’s certainly not going to help matters when one of those two or Chad Qualls is closing games for the Padres.
Fantasy Outlook:
Offensively, there’s really nobody on this team I’m gung-ho about. Ryan Ludwick will probably get those 20 homers at a pretty solid discount, Will Venable could be a good source of cheap speed if he can figure out how to hit the ball. Jason Bartlett is used to playing in pitchers parks, so if he can return to his 2009 form at all that will help owners, but he’s not a guy that you’re going to draft. I bought into the Chase Headley hype when he was a young prospect, but I don’t know if his major league ceiling goes much higher than a 20-15 season with a solid batting average. I don’t think he’ll get there this year, though. The final noteworthy offensive player for the Pads is Cameron Maybin. Maybe he needed a change of scenery, and he’s certainly an outfielder that I’d keep an eye on, but it’s looking more and more like he’s going to be a bust. If you’re the Marlins, it’s either tough to let a guy like Maybin go because you gave up Miggy for him, but that decision can be easy if you think Maybin is really bad. Maybe Cameron Maybin’s just really bad.
It’s always a good idea to start a Padres pitcher at PETCO. Keep that in mind for spot starts as you may need them, but I don’t think any of their starters should be drafted outside of Latos. If I were to have to pick a guy in the rotation besides Latos that I am optimistic about, it’s probably Stauffer. He always killed it as a reliever, and I think the move to the rotation could be good for him. He got a few spot starts for the Pads last year and performed exceptionally well in them, so I will be keeping an eye out for him as a replacement for a starter who struggles in April. It’s hard to predict the season Heath Bell will have with such a bad offense and the likelihood that he gets traded, but he’s obviously a great option for an elite closer.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
It’s sort of hard for me to pick the Diamondbacks to finish 4th in this division, because I think they are a great team who has done the proper patchwork to their bullpen to be more successful in their division. Their offense might be the strongest in the division, but I still think their rotation and pitching need a little work. They are relying on some pretty unreliable names to win them games and I worry that it might fall flat on their face. They still have the worst pitching staff in this division from top to bottom, but I think they have made a few critical additions that will make them more successful than they were last year.
Stephen Drew, Justin Upton, Kelly Johnson, Chris Young and Miguel Montero are all good hitters who I expect to perform again this season like they did last year. This team will certainly miss Adam LaRoche, but Melvin Mora is pretty solid defensively, and if Montero is healthy for the whole year, he will certainly help the D-back’s efforts.
I mentioned the lack of reliability of this rotation and I don’t think that’s to be overstated. Daniel Hudson showed much promise last year and has been a great prospect. Joe Saunders, Ian Kennedy, Armando Gallaraga and Barry Enright are all good, but not great. Good enough to beat the Padres and probably the Dodgers offense, but not great enough to outpitch the Giants or Rockies.
Fantasy Outlook:
Let’s start with Justin Upton. I just read something that said his shoulder might not be completely healthy and if he tries to over swing like he did last year, he could be in trouble. Shoulders are a big problem when it comes to power (just ask his brother). All this being said, I’m a little worried about Upton’s prospects for this season. Part of me loves Justin Upton and wants to see him perform, but the other part of me thinks he may still be hurt and won’t show us this year what he’s fully capable of. I think Kelly Johnson benefitted greatly by playing in Chase Field and he could be a great source of 20-homer power from the keystone. I think this is the year for Stephen Drew. I just have one of those feelings that he will go 20-15 and hit .280 so long as th e people around him stay healthy, which isn’t a given. Chris Young should turn in another 20-20 performance but may hurt your team’s batting average. It’s always hard to find good options at catcher, and I think Miguel Montero has great potential. He‘s slipped through the cracks a little big because of his injury last season, but I think he could be due for a solid season and will be a great value pick.
You know your team might not be that great when your best fantasy option is one guy who is all upside. I think Daniel Hudson could turn a solid year in for his first full season, but there isn’t a whole heck of a lot of upside behind him. Enright showed stretches of goodness last year, Gallaraga pitches heavily to his defense when he may not be in the ballparks to do so in the NL West. I really like J.J. Putz at the back end of the bullpen. He will keep the job the whole year, and I like his prospects of converting most of his opportunities.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
The past few years for the Dodgers have been the offensive class of the NL West, but this year, it’s going to be their pitching that keeps them competitive. When you look at this starting rotation, they mix exciting youth with calming experience. The offense was not very great last year without Manny and they’re replacing Manny, Russell Martin, and Orlando Hudson with Jay Gibbons, Rod Barajas, and Juan Uribe. My concerns about this offense are big, but I expect Matt Kemp to bounce back and have a great year, and Furcal is still elite if he can stay healthy, which is obviously not a given as he approaches his mid-30’s. There are certainly questions about Casey Blake’s production value and James Loney’s ability to get big hits. But I truly believe Andre Ethier’s struggles in the 2nd half relative to the first half were because his finger never fully recovered, but I expect him to do big things for the Dodgers this year.
I’m going to go ahead and say it: Ted Lilly might be the most underrated pitcher in the majors. He is as consistent as they come, he can strike guys out, he allows practically no base runners, and he knows the meaning of damage-control when he does allow base runners. When you combine a consistent Lilly with a consistent Hiroki Kuroda you have a great back end of a rotation. When you look at the front end of that rotation in Billingsley and member of the tribe Clayton Kershaw, I think this rotation will certainly make some noise in this division. The bullpen is also solid. Kuo is one of the strongest setup men in the league and Broxton is a big hulking closer who, despite showing that he was human last year, is a solid pitcher. Other guys in that bullpen like Troncoso, Guerrier and Jansen are all solid enough to keep them in games with the amount of close games this team will hand them.
Fantasy Outlook:
I have mentioned that Matt Kemp will certainly be a great rebound candidate and since he is going in the mid 2nd to mid 3rd round, he is going to be a cheaper value that will help your team tremendously. I fully expect numbers close to 30-30 and I want to know what, if any, motivation he plays in the sexual nature of his girlfriend Rihanna’s songs. Ethier is the next obvious guy to discuss. I have belabored the lack of depth in the outfield discussion, and Ethier will be dominant this season if he’s healthy. I don’t see him hitting the .320+ he was knocking before his injury last year, but if he sticks around .290 and hits 30ish homers this year, it’ll be a great success. Rafa Furcal is the last notable offensive player to talk about. I want to assume health and I want guys like Furcal to stay healthy, because it lets us see their full potential. I want to see Furcal go 15-25 with a great batting average, and that’s certainly what he’s capable of if he’s healthy, but his inability to stay healthy has depressed his value too much.
I can see this rotation’s top four being solid contributors in fantasy this year. They can all strike batters out and they all have great potential and a history of strong track records. When you look at starting iptching, the track record is the most important thing, and I predict great seasons for all four of those guys; sub-4ERA’s across the board and all with 150+K’s.
2. Colorado Rockies
I have really struggled with whether or not I think this team will finish 1st or 2nd in this division. A close look at this team, and you’ll see that they’re just not as strong on the rubber as the Giants are. The offensive numbers are bloated because they play in Coors Field and the Rockies will be relying heavily on guys like Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki to keep this offense moving. I don’t know if that’s a good thing, but I think there’s something to be said for a healthy Todd Helton, who has always been a strong timely hitter for the Rockies. I have my concerns about the youth on this team, but many people have had these same worries and these young hitters really know how to turn it on, especially in the 2nd half. This offense reminds me a lot of the NL version of the Twins in that they have a handful of guys who don’t get a lot of attention, but continue to help this team win games. Ian Stewart, Ryan Spilborghs and Seth Smith are those guys who continually produce for this team and help them win games.
If De La Rosa is healthy, Ubaldo can do even 2/3rds of what he did last season then this team will be great. I love love love love Jhoulys Chacin this year. He is one of my biggest fantasy sleepers and he is a dominant shutdown strikeout pitcher who I think everybody needs to keep an eye on. Jason Hammel is the 4th guy in this rotation and he’s just one of those guys who always pitches as well as the Rockies are hitting. The bullpen is also solid, especially with the addition of Matt Lindstrom. Lindstrom, Rafael Betancourt and Matt Belisle are all solid bullpen guys who will certainly outman some of the weaker offenses in this division. Huston Street is one of those guys I’ve always loved, but he’s struggled with his health in the past few years. If Street is healthy, it truly solidifies this bullpen as one that can take this team far.
Fantasy Outlook:
Ubaldo and Carlos Gonzalez both got extremely lucky last year. I said it. Both had extreme fortune, and from a fantasy perspective it’s hard to call a pitcher “elite” when he pitches at Coors, you have to be realistic. The fact that starting is so deep is a testament to the fact that Ubaldo is being drafted so late in many drafts already. To be perfectly honest, I see Jhoulys Chacin as being almost as good a pitcher as Ubaldo and look for Chacin to have similar numbers by season’s end. Carlos Gonzalez is simply NOT the best outfielder in this league, and I think that will shine through this season. I would not draft him. Ian Stewart will be a great power source from the hot corner if you can stomach the batting average hit he might provide. The other player of note here is Dexter Fowler. Fowler seemed to get it together at times in the 2nd half last year, and it looks like he’s going to have the leadoff spot the whole season. He has a great ability to hit for power, he can take walks, and he is a switch hitter, there’s a lot to like here. He could be a surprise candidate to go 10-30 or even higher if things fall into place for him.
I have talked about Ubaldo and Chacin, but I think De La Rosa will be the worst of the three and not a huge fantay contributor this season. I think he’s got potential to keep the Rockies in a lot of games, but I worry that he won’t be a formidable fantasy contributor.
1.San Francisco Giants
This is not the most talented team in the bigs, but last September and October they certainly were the best. If you are a constant reader of the blog, you’ll know that I projected this team to erase their 6 game deficit and take down the NL West, which is exactly what they did on the last day of the regular season. A look at the hitting, and it’s nothing to be overly concerned about. But a look at this pitching staff, and I think it’s right alongside the Phillies. WHAT!?!?! DID DAVID KAPLAN JUST SAY THAT?!?!?! I did and I feel very confident about it. It’s the exact reason I picked the Giants to win the NL last year and all the Phillies fans cried foul. I
I think Pat the Bat will be back to hit 25 homers for this team. I think the acquisition of Miguel Tejada is a perfect replacement for Uribe, Freddy Sanchez knows how to hit, Andres Torres is an intriguing leadoff switch-hitter, Aubrey Huff is going to have another monster year, and then there’s Buster. The best offense in this division is the one who knows how to get hits when they need them, and the experience this team gained in doing just that last October will help them win the division again this year.
Lincecum is a stud, Sanchez is a stud, Cain is a stud, Bumgarner is sort of a stud, and Barry Zito’s pretty good. That’s the most complete rotation in the majors and there’s no doubt about it. There aren’t any health problems with these guys, there are no innings issues with these guys other than Bumgarner, and they are all sexy and fearsome dudes. Then look at this bullpen and see Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt, Santiago Casilla and Ramon Ramirez and it’s an exciting and dangerous concoction of men in order to get the ball to the ultimate man, Brian Wilson. I fear the beard.
Fantasy Outlook:
Offensively, there’s not a ton here. I like Aubrey Huff as a late fantasy first baseman option. If he can hit for some semblance of what he did last year, I like him as a great value play either in your utility spot or as your 2nd first baseman. Andres Torres was a great pickup for a lot of people including myself and I think he could prove to be a solid speed-power option for many owners. I talked about how much I like Fowler and let there be no mistaking that Fowler’s upside is on a whole other level than Torres. Buster Posey is going to be great this season, and I think he should be taken off the board before Mauer at catcher. I love me some Buster.
In short, I would take all of these starters in a heartbeat if the price was right. They all pitch in a great pitchers park, they all have great strikeout potential, and they all know how to keep their composure. The biggest indicator of good pitching for me is damage control, and all these guys know how to pitch with runners in base and in high pressure situations. Brian Wilson is obviously a strong closer. This team plays in a lot of 3-2 and 2-1 games, but always comes out on the right side of them. Given the emphasis on pitching now, especially in the NL, I think this team could very much repeat as World Champions.
Saturday, March 19, 2011
AL East Preview....
I want to preface this season’s baseball projections by saying that this year has been extremely hard to predict on many levels. I think there are a lot of contenders this year that could win the whole thing. I think we’re going to see the most exciting September in a while.
In this preview I will give you my predictions for the regular season as well as a season outlook on every team including some relevant fantasy players on each team that you should take note of. I will be posting The Knurve’s predictions by division, so if you want to go straight to a division of interest, click on the right side under March and you can find that division.
So, without further due HERE is The Knurve’s comprehensive season preview:
AL East:
There is no doubt in my mind that from top to bottom this is the absolute toughest division in baseball. With new critical additions by every one of the teams in this division, it’s going to be very interesting to see how this one plays out. Every game in this division is going to be a dogfight. I think the favorite is clear-cut, but 2-5 is going to be a lot tougher to predict than most people think.
5. Baltimore Orioles
I spent a lot of time trying to decide if the Orioles really belonged here. This is a team that has a ton of exciting components that they’ve brought in. However, they have the misfortune of being in this extremely difficult division. I think the addition of Vladamir Guererro and Mark Reynolds are huge. Couple those two with an upstart bat in Adam Jones and some decent young pitching and we see great potential here. I just don’t think they are a team that can put together wins against some of the other pitching staffs in the rest of this division.
There’s no doubting this team has talent on the mound, I just don’t think it’s a rotation and bullpen that can completely succeed with the amount of good bats in the AL East. I want to see this team succeed and I think they’re going to be a whole heck of a lot better than they were last year, but I don’t know if Luke Scott has another year like he had last year, I don’t know if Vlad has another season like last year’s in the tank, and I don’t know how healthy Brian Roberts is. There’s a lot to be excited about when talking about this team, but I think they’re still a year or two away. This team will play really well at some points in the season, I can see some series sweeps of teams like the Yankees and the Red Sox, but I think they won’t have enough tools to compete with them the whole season.
Fantasy Outlook:
Adam Jones is a great bargain outfielder with great potential this season. He didn’t run a whole bunch last year, but I can see Showalter, an aggressive manager, put him and Roberts’ legs to the test a little more this season. In a year of fantasy with some power outages across the league, don’t forget that Camden Yards plays as one of the top 10 hitter friendly parks in the league. Sure, it’s not Texas, but I think Vlad could be a great source of cheap power for many fantasy players. There are a whole bunch of more safe 1st baseman options than Derrick Lee, but there’s no reason he can’t put together a solid season.
The Oriole’s pitching staff has a lot of potential, there’s no doubting that. Guthrie has been a consistent performer and can be seen as another sub-4 ERA pitcher who picks up a few more wins this year than the low double-digit total he had last year. Matusz is a big dude who has gotten a lot of attention as a potential great arm for the O’s and I think he could have a great year. He’s not pitching in a great division or ballpark, but that’s not to say he can’t dominate outside of the division or pitch well in some big games. The O’s 3rd starter is Justin Duchscherer and he always gets hurt it seems, but I would keep an eye on him. He will most likely pitch well in April and people will pick him up, because all indications are that he’s healthy, but don’t put too many eggs in that basket.
4. Tampa Bay Rays
I really wanted to put the Rays 5th in the AL East, but I didn’t think that was fair. Joe Maddon is too good of a manager, and the pitching here is too good to finish worst in this division. That being said, this pitching staff is very young and very unproven as a whole. This team lost their best player in Carl Crawford, their best power threat in Carlos Pena and their top closer in Raphael Soriano. Quite simply, this offense is nowhere near as scary as it once was. Longoria is a young dude with a huge load to shoulder offensively in a very pitcher-friendly ballpark. When you’re relying on Reid Brignac, Sean Rodriguez, Dan Johnson and Ben Zobrist, you don’t have something too scary. I don’t know what Manny and Johnny Damon have left in the tank, but I don’t think it’s enough to help out Longoria offensively. I look at this offense and I see a team in trouble.
The starting pitching on this team could be the best in the division. There are a lot of statistics that indicate David Price got lucky last year, but Wade Davis looked great at times last year, James Shields is a proven pitcher, Jeff Neimann had a great year last year, and Jeremy Hellickson is a stud prospect who turned a lot of heads last year with his performance in the bigs. I think this is a pitching staff that can amaze a lot of people. This rotation will keep this team in a lot of close games, especially in a division with so many prolific offenses. The Rays offense is easily the worst in this division, but something needs to be said for pitching, and the Rays certainly have it in their starting rotation.
Fantasy Outlook:
Obviously Longoria is a man to be feared, but outside of him, I don’t know exactly what this team is. I don’t think Manny is capable of hitting 30 home runs anymore, both because of health issues and being over the proverbial hill. I don’t think Johnny Damon can be viewed as a legitimate fantasy baseball contributor because he doesn’t do anything in the counting stats anymore except maybe score some runs. B.J. Upton needs to have a great year for this team, but he’s obviously a batting average liability. He will be a great speed boost for any team, but don’t pay too much for him, he won’t be worth it.
All of the pitchers in this rotation can well be worth their draft pick. I am a little worried that people will overpay for Price, but I think he will still put together a solid year, just with less wins. Davis, Sheilds, Niemann and Hellickson are all going a little lower in drafts and I think they are the guys you would want to target more so than Price because they will come at a better, well, price.
3. New York Yankees
Fans of either team love to cry foul when the Yankees or Red Sox do not finish 1-2 in some way, shape, or form. When I look at this Yankee team, I see a phenomenal offense capable of scoring a stupid amount of runs. The big guns of Teixeira, Cano, Granderson, Rodriguez, Jeter and Swisher will be back and will certainly swing the bat well at times this year. Obviously I’m picking this team to finish 3rd because of the pitching, but I think A-Rod and Jeter are further past their primes than Yankee fans want to think. I am getting very nitpicky with this offense, but I think those two being one year older makes this offense a little weaker than they were last year. With a weaker offense and a terrible rotation, I think there’s reason for concern.
Outside of C.C. this rotation doesn’t do it for me. There’s a reason the Yankees went out and signed schmo-bags like Mark Prior, Bartolo Colon, and Freddy Garcia in the offseason. I viewed those three acquisitions as the Yankees pushing the panic button on their pitching staff this season. Phil Hughes was pretty atrocious after the break, and A.J. Burnett was simply atrocious for the whole season. After those two, the bombers are going to rely on either Sergio Mitre, Ivan Nova, or Freddy Garcia as of now. I see so many red flags here. It’s really difficult for me to pick this team to finish 3rd given this offense, but I don’t think the Yankees bullpen is good enough to endure the beating the Yankees 2-5 may hand to them. If Cliff Lee goes to the Yankees, this team is easily a 2nd or 1st place team, but I just don’t see it.
Fantasy Outlook:
Where do you start? I love Teixeira this year, especially given the fact that he’s being projected in the late 2nd early/early 3rd round. Robinson Cano is the best 2nd baseman in the game, and Granderson’s 2nd half last year has me thinking he can hit a home run once every 3 or 4 games at home AND steal 15-20 bases. Sabathia will be great again, and Rivera will be dominant once his bullpen hands the game off to him. I think fantasy owners need to recognize what A-Rod is now. He’s not going to steal you bases, and it looks like he’s starting to swing for the fences a little more, accounting for the decline in batting average each of the last four years. I think he’s good for an 80-30-100 season, but don’t expect the speed and batting average to accompany it. The lack of depth at short makes me think Jeter is a good play this year, but like A-Rod, don’t expect an average above .300.
2. Toronto Blue Jays
When I originally sat down to do these rankings for the first time, I had the Jays as my 5th place team in this division. But in looking at this team more and more, I think I’m slowly falling in love with them. I loved Cito Gaston, but John Farrell as the manager of this team with such dynamic young pitchers and experienced, powerful and skillfull hitters makes a recipe of delicious-ness for me.
On offense, I think the acquisition of Rajai Davis gives them a dynamic leadoff hitter who can hit for average, has crazy amounts of speed, and is a defensive stud. Yunel Escobar is a question mark behind Davis, but the middle of this lineup gets dangerous quick. Jose Bautista won’t hit more than 50 home runs again, but 35-40? Why not? I like Adam Lind to bounce back after posting a solid July, August and September last year. Lind provides a great left-handed bat in the middle of that lineup. Follow Lind with the powerful Aaron Hill, young and powerful Travis Snider, and then new acquisition Juan Rivera and I think this team is something to be excited about. They led the majors in homers last year by almost 40, and I see that happening again this year, but with more experienced young hitters, and a better pitching staff to keep them ahead in games.
I think Ricky Romero has paid his dues and is ready to roll, I think Brandon Morrow could be one of the most dominant pitchers in the AL East, Brett Cecil was phenomenal in 4 of last season’s 6 months, and I think Marc Rzepczynski and Kyle Drabek will make great leaps and bounds under Farrell. This starting rotation certainly has some holes, but they’re balanced and they have such great potential and we saw flashes of it last year. I think any great bullpen hides a rotation’s weaknesses and Frank Francisco, Octavio Dotel and Jon Rauch are all former closers who have had amazing success in many major league bullpens. Those three offseason acquisitions by the Jays will be critical in comforting the youth of their rotation.
Fantasy Outlook:
If you read my draft day manifesto on the blog, you’ll know that I think power needs to be chased this season, and if you want power and aren’t sure where to find it, look at this team. See this team, embrace this team, love this team. This team is big and strong on offense and young and skillful on the mound. I like Aaron Hill to have a strong year at 2nd, sort of like Dan Uggla-lite. Under normal pretenses, I think Jose Bautista is overrated, but because he plays 3rd, I think he’s worth the 3rd or 4th round pick you’ll use for him. I’ve said I like Lind for a bounce back year and I like Rajai Davis as a huge bargain for speed.
From a fantasy perspective, I think Romero and Morrow are good mid-round pitchers, and the bottom 3 guys are sleepers for me this season. Great options at the end of your draft that could help you win your deeper fantasy league.
1.Boston Red Sox
Is there even any question? In ranking the Red Sox the top team in this division, I wanted to be very careful so as not to make the auto-assumption that they’d win, but they’re the best team in this division and in the AL, hands down. The additions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez were expensive, but extremely worth it. The team has speed, the team has power, the team can get on base, the team can pitch, the team can close games, the team is phenomenal. They got very unlucky with injuries last year, losing Pedroia, Youkilis, Beckett, and Ellsbury. Now that they have those guys back and presumably healthy along with Crawford and Gonzalez, the sky is the limit for this offense. Even a terrible year by Ortiz can yield either an opening for a backup who got a lot of experience like Reddick, Lowerie, Nava, Kalish, or McDonald. I think Tito Francona trusts all these guys as apt replacements. The depth of the offense is astounding.
The starting rotation could have a few question marks like any other, but Lester and Buchholz should have great years at the top of the rotation, and Beckett has been solid this spring, even after getting hit in the head with a baseball. With Dice-K and Lackey being the weaknesses of this rotation, I think they have enough good spurts to negate the bad, presumably letting this offense do it’s thing. Then the bullpen should be fantastic. It think the Red Sox overpaid a lot for Jenks, but the additions of him and Wheeler, along with Alfredo Aceves and Okajima gives this bullpen a lot of experience and specialty men better than the Manny Delcarmens of the world.
Fantasy Outlook:
What’s not to like about all these guys? Pedroia is a top 2nd baseman, if Gonzalez is healthy I think he is good for 40 homers and a .300+ AVG, Crawford is my top fantasy outfielder, Lester is the 3rd best lefty in the majors (Lee and Sabathia), Buchholz will be great again, Ellsbury is healthy and if he leads off he could score a dumb amount of runs. This team is going to be exciting to watch. To be completely honest, one of my biggest worries is Papelbon, who has showed many signs of being human over the past 2 seasons, but I think he certainly goes as the rest of his team goes. Watch out for the Red Sox, they could win 105.
In this preview I will give you my predictions for the regular season as well as a season outlook on every team including some relevant fantasy players on each team that you should take note of. I will be posting The Knurve’s predictions by division, so if you want to go straight to a division of interest, click on the right side under March and you can find that division.
So, without further due HERE is The Knurve’s comprehensive season preview:
AL East:
There is no doubt in my mind that from top to bottom this is the absolute toughest division in baseball. With new critical additions by every one of the teams in this division, it’s going to be very interesting to see how this one plays out. Every game in this division is going to be a dogfight. I think the favorite is clear-cut, but 2-5 is going to be a lot tougher to predict than most people think.
5. Baltimore Orioles
I spent a lot of time trying to decide if the Orioles really belonged here. This is a team that has a ton of exciting components that they’ve brought in. However, they have the misfortune of being in this extremely difficult division. I think the addition of Vladamir Guererro and Mark Reynolds are huge. Couple those two with an upstart bat in Adam Jones and some decent young pitching and we see great potential here. I just don’t think they are a team that can put together wins against some of the other pitching staffs in the rest of this division.
There’s no doubting this team has talent on the mound, I just don’t think it’s a rotation and bullpen that can completely succeed with the amount of good bats in the AL East. I want to see this team succeed and I think they’re going to be a whole heck of a lot better than they were last year, but I don’t know if Luke Scott has another year like he had last year, I don’t know if Vlad has another season like last year’s in the tank, and I don’t know how healthy Brian Roberts is. There’s a lot to be excited about when talking about this team, but I think they’re still a year or two away. This team will play really well at some points in the season, I can see some series sweeps of teams like the Yankees and the Red Sox, but I think they won’t have enough tools to compete with them the whole season.
Fantasy Outlook:
Adam Jones is a great bargain outfielder with great potential this season. He didn’t run a whole bunch last year, but I can see Showalter, an aggressive manager, put him and Roberts’ legs to the test a little more this season. In a year of fantasy with some power outages across the league, don’t forget that Camden Yards plays as one of the top 10 hitter friendly parks in the league. Sure, it’s not Texas, but I think Vlad could be a great source of cheap power for many fantasy players. There are a whole bunch of more safe 1st baseman options than Derrick Lee, but there’s no reason he can’t put together a solid season.
The Oriole’s pitching staff has a lot of potential, there’s no doubting that. Guthrie has been a consistent performer and can be seen as another sub-4 ERA pitcher who picks up a few more wins this year than the low double-digit total he had last year. Matusz is a big dude who has gotten a lot of attention as a potential great arm for the O’s and I think he could have a great year. He’s not pitching in a great division or ballpark, but that’s not to say he can’t dominate outside of the division or pitch well in some big games. The O’s 3rd starter is Justin Duchscherer and he always gets hurt it seems, but I would keep an eye on him. He will most likely pitch well in April and people will pick him up, because all indications are that he’s healthy, but don’t put too many eggs in that basket.
4. Tampa Bay Rays
I really wanted to put the Rays 5th in the AL East, but I didn’t think that was fair. Joe Maddon is too good of a manager, and the pitching here is too good to finish worst in this division. That being said, this pitching staff is very young and very unproven as a whole. This team lost their best player in Carl Crawford, their best power threat in Carlos Pena and their top closer in Raphael Soriano. Quite simply, this offense is nowhere near as scary as it once was. Longoria is a young dude with a huge load to shoulder offensively in a very pitcher-friendly ballpark. When you’re relying on Reid Brignac, Sean Rodriguez, Dan Johnson and Ben Zobrist, you don’t have something too scary. I don’t know what Manny and Johnny Damon have left in the tank, but I don’t think it’s enough to help out Longoria offensively. I look at this offense and I see a team in trouble.
The starting pitching on this team could be the best in the division. There are a lot of statistics that indicate David Price got lucky last year, but Wade Davis looked great at times last year, James Shields is a proven pitcher, Jeff Neimann had a great year last year, and Jeremy Hellickson is a stud prospect who turned a lot of heads last year with his performance in the bigs. I think this is a pitching staff that can amaze a lot of people. This rotation will keep this team in a lot of close games, especially in a division with so many prolific offenses. The Rays offense is easily the worst in this division, but something needs to be said for pitching, and the Rays certainly have it in their starting rotation.
Fantasy Outlook:
Obviously Longoria is a man to be feared, but outside of him, I don’t know exactly what this team is. I don’t think Manny is capable of hitting 30 home runs anymore, both because of health issues and being over the proverbial hill. I don’t think Johnny Damon can be viewed as a legitimate fantasy baseball contributor because he doesn’t do anything in the counting stats anymore except maybe score some runs. B.J. Upton needs to have a great year for this team, but he’s obviously a batting average liability. He will be a great speed boost for any team, but don’t pay too much for him, he won’t be worth it.
All of the pitchers in this rotation can well be worth their draft pick. I am a little worried that people will overpay for Price, but I think he will still put together a solid year, just with less wins. Davis, Sheilds, Niemann and Hellickson are all going a little lower in drafts and I think they are the guys you would want to target more so than Price because they will come at a better, well, price.
3. New York Yankees
Fans of either team love to cry foul when the Yankees or Red Sox do not finish 1-2 in some way, shape, or form. When I look at this Yankee team, I see a phenomenal offense capable of scoring a stupid amount of runs. The big guns of Teixeira, Cano, Granderson, Rodriguez, Jeter and Swisher will be back and will certainly swing the bat well at times this year. Obviously I’m picking this team to finish 3rd because of the pitching, but I think A-Rod and Jeter are further past their primes than Yankee fans want to think. I am getting very nitpicky with this offense, but I think those two being one year older makes this offense a little weaker than they were last year. With a weaker offense and a terrible rotation, I think there’s reason for concern.
Outside of C.C. this rotation doesn’t do it for me. There’s a reason the Yankees went out and signed schmo-bags like Mark Prior, Bartolo Colon, and Freddy Garcia in the offseason. I viewed those three acquisitions as the Yankees pushing the panic button on their pitching staff this season. Phil Hughes was pretty atrocious after the break, and A.J. Burnett was simply atrocious for the whole season. After those two, the bombers are going to rely on either Sergio Mitre, Ivan Nova, or Freddy Garcia as of now. I see so many red flags here. It’s really difficult for me to pick this team to finish 3rd given this offense, but I don’t think the Yankees bullpen is good enough to endure the beating the Yankees 2-5 may hand to them. If Cliff Lee goes to the Yankees, this team is easily a 2nd or 1st place team, but I just don’t see it.
Fantasy Outlook:
Where do you start? I love Teixeira this year, especially given the fact that he’s being projected in the late 2nd early/early 3rd round. Robinson Cano is the best 2nd baseman in the game, and Granderson’s 2nd half last year has me thinking he can hit a home run once every 3 or 4 games at home AND steal 15-20 bases. Sabathia will be great again, and Rivera will be dominant once his bullpen hands the game off to him. I think fantasy owners need to recognize what A-Rod is now. He’s not going to steal you bases, and it looks like he’s starting to swing for the fences a little more, accounting for the decline in batting average each of the last four years. I think he’s good for an 80-30-100 season, but don’t expect the speed and batting average to accompany it. The lack of depth at short makes me think Jeter is a good play this year, but like A-Rod, don’t expect an average above .300.
2. Toronto Blue Jays
When I originally sat down to do these rankings for the first time, I had the Jays as my 5th place team in this division. But in looking at this team more and more, I think I’m slowly falling in love with them. I loved Cito Gaston, but John Farrell as the manager of this team with such dynamic young pitchers and experienced, powerful and skillfull hitters makes a recipe of delicious-ness for me.
On offense, I think the acquisition of Rajai Davis gives them a dynamic leadoff hitter who can hit for average, has crazy amounts of speed, and is a defensive stud. Yunel Escobar is a question mark behind Davis, but the middle of this lineup gets dangerous quick. Jose Bautista won’t hit more than 50 home runs again, but 35-40? Why not? I like Adam Lind to bounce back after posting a solid July, August and September last year. Lind provides a great left-handed bat in the middle of that lineup. Follow Lind with the powerful Aaron Hill, young and powerful Travis Snider, and then new acquisition Juan Rivera and I think this team is something to be excited about. They led the majors in homers last year by almost 40, and I see that happening again this year, but with more experienced young hitters, and a better pitching staff to keep them ahead in games.
I think Ricky Romero has paid his dues and is ready to roll, I think Brandon Morrow could be one of the most dominant pitchers in the AL East, Brett Cecil was phenomenal in 4 of last season’s 6 months, and I think Marc Rzepczynski and Kyle Drabek will make great leaps and bounds under Farrell. This starting rotation certainly has some holes, but they’re balanced and they have such great potential and we saw flashes of it last year. I think any great bullpen hides a rotation’s weaknesses and Frank Francisco, Octavio Dotel and Jon Rauch are all former closers who have had amazing success in many major league bullpens. Those three offseason acquisitions by the Jays will be critical in comforting the youth of their rotation.
Fantasy Outlook:
If you read my draft day manifesto on the blog, you’ll know that I think power needs to be chased this season, and if you want power and aren’t sure where to find it, look at this team. See this team, embrace this team, love this team. This team is big and strong on offense and young and skillful on the mound. I like Aaron Hill to have a strong year at 2nd, sort of like Dan Uggla-lite. Under normal pretenses, I think Jose Bautista is overrated, but because he plays 3rd, I think he’s worth the 3rd or 4th round pick you’ll use for him. I’ve said I like Lind for a bounce back year and I like Rajai Davis as a huge bargain for speed.
From a fantasy perspective, I think Romero and Morrow are good mid-round pitchers, and the bottom 3 guys are sleepers for me this season. Great options at the end of your draft that could help you win your deeper fantasy league.
1.Boston Red Sox
Is there even any question? In ranking the Red Sox the top team in this division, I wanted to be very careful so as not to make the auto-assumption that they’d win, but they’re the best team in this division and in the AL, hands down. The additions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez were expensive, but extremely worth it. The team has speed, the team has power, the team can get on base, the team can pitch, the team can close games, the team is phenomenal. They got very unlucky with injuries last year, losing Pedroia, Youkilis, Beckett, and Ellsbury. Now that they have those guys back and presumably healthy along with Crawford and Gonzalez, the sky is the limit for this offense. Even a terrible year by Ortiz can yield either an opening for a backup who got a lot of experience like Reddick, Lowerie, Nava, Kalish, or McDonald. I think Tito Francona trusts all these guys as apt replacements. The depth of the offense is astounding.
The starting rotation could have a few question marks like any other, but Lester and Buchholz should have great years at the top of the rotation, and Beckett has been solid this spring, even after getting hit in the head with a baseball. With Dice-K and Lackey being the weaknesses of this rotation, I think they have enough good spurts to negate the bad, presumably letting this offense do it’s thing. Then the bullpen should be fantastic. It think the Red Sox overpaid a lot for Jenks, but the additions of him and Wheeler, along with Alfredo Aceves and Okajima gives this bullpen a lot of experience and specialty men better than the Manny Delcarmens of the world.
Fantasy Outlook:
What’s not to like about all these guys? Pedroia is a top 2nd baseman, if Gonzalez is healthy I think he is good for 40 homers and a .300+ AVG, Crawford is my top fantasy outfielder, Lester is the 3rd best lefty in the majors (Lee and Sabathia), Buchholz will be great again, Ellsbury is healthy and if he leads off he could score a dumb amount of runs. This team is going to be exciting to watch. To be completely honest, one of my biggest worries is Papelbon, who has showed many signs of being human over the past 2 seasons, but I think he certainly goes as the rest of his team goes. Watch out for the Red Sox, they could win 105.
Friday, March 18, 2011
AL Central Preview...
Well here it is. Baseball season is upon us. Last may I started this blog with the hopes of sharing my thoughts on the game I love, and you all have responded. I cannot express with words how amped I am for this season.
I want to preface this season’s baseball projections by saying that this year has been extremely hard to predict on many levels. I think there are a lot of contenders this year that could win the whole thing. I think we’re going to see the most exciting September in a while.
In this preview I will give you my predictions for the regular season as well as a season outlook on every team including some relevant fantasy players on each team that you should take note of. I will be posting The Knurve’s predictions by division, so if you want to go straight to a division of interest, click on the right side under March and you can find that division.
So, without further due HERE is The Knurve’s comprehensive season preview:
AL Central
The name of my most important fantasy baseball league last season was “Better than the AL Central.” I view this name as extremely ironic this year, because after a whole host of acquisitions, the AL Central is relevant again. From top to bottom, the AL East is head and shoulders above every other division in baseball, but the top 3 in the AL Central are all teams I could see going all the way.
5. Cleveland Indians
This team’s offense is simply too old to compete in this league and division. Bringing in aging guys like Austin Kearns and Orlando Cabrera may help them, but Travis Hafner hasn’t swung the bat well in a while and Grady Sizemore may not be completely healthy. That being said, I love Shin-Soo Choo and Carlos Santana, Michael Brantley has potential to be a solid leadoff hitter, and Asdrubal Cabrera is a solid player. My biggest problem with this offense is that they’re all average. Matt LaPorta has been a relative disappointment in the majors (remember the Brewers traded him in the Sabathia deal) and I just can’t see this team putting together a respectable offense than can win 90+games.
The pitching is also sub-par. Masterson has the talent, but he hasn’t been able to put it all together for a major league season. I think Carmona’s 2010 is exactly what we can expect in 2011, high 3’s ERA, not a lot of K’s, and not a lot of wins. The rest of the rotation will not be very strong between Mitch Talbot, Carlos Carrasco and Josh Tomlin. I can’t see any of those three putting together respectable enough season’s. The Indian’s bullpen isn’t terrible, though. They have one of the best closers in the game in Chris Perez, and Joe Smith, Chad Durbin and Raphael Perez aren’t terrible.
When push comes to shove, this team just isn’t very good and will have a long and disappointing year.
Fantasy Outlook:
Choo is one of the best fantasy outfielders in the game. He’s going to hit close to .300 with great plate patience and he’s a consistent 20/20 guy. He’s an outfielder who is going to only help your fantasy team, so I would keep an eye on him as a 3rd or 4th round pick. In a relatively weak short stop position, I’d also take a look at Asdrubal Cabrera as a late-round pickup. He’s not sexy, but Cabrera can give you double-digit homers and steals with a solid batting average. When it comes to guys at the end of a draft, you’re always looking for guys with great upside who could help you tremendously, or a solid track record so they won’t hurt you, Cabrera is one of those guys who won’t hurt you. Brantley could be a very good and very cheap source of speed. And speaking of speed/power guys, I think I have to talk about Sizemore. If Sizemore is healthy, he has great upside, but I worry with micro-fracture surgery how much he’ll be like his old self. He was struggling before the surgery and he struggled the year before. I don’t think there’s any doubting his upside, but he may be a good upside pick in the late-teen rounds of your draft.
There’s nothing too sexy about any pitchers not named Fausto Carmona or Chris Perez. I think Carmona’s 2009 was a bit of an aberration but in 2010 he was a nice bounce back play. He’s got one of the most potent sinkers in the game when he’s throwing it well. In the over 34 innings he threw last September, he posted a 1.82 ERA but only recorded one win. Chris Perez is a guy who won’t be one of the first 3 or 4 closers taken, but he is what I like to call a perfect draft-ee. When the other schmo-bags in your league are taking the top guys like Rivera, Broxton, Papelbon, Bell and Wilson, you can take hitters which will help your team even more, then you take a guy like Perez who will be a stud this year. Masterson’s a sleeper guy I’d look out for, he’s one of those waiver wire guys that can help your team immensely if he hits a hot streak.
4. Kansas City Royals
As much as I want this team to succeed and think they will have the tools to do it, the pitching just isn’t there this year, especially after trading away Zach Greinke. As much as their offense got better by trading away Greinke, their pitching got that much worse. I really like Alcides Escobar as a sleeper short stop this year and think he can hit for average and add a nice touch of speed at a shallow position this year. If you ask my fantasy arch-nemesis Brad Sussman who the unexpected MVP of his fantasy team (which lost to me in the championship last year) was, he’d probably tell you that Mike Aviles was his guy. Aviles is one of those guys who, given the chance to lead off, which he probably will, could be as valuable a player this year in the AL Central. He’s got the speed, and if any of the bats behind him have some trace of a good year, he could be a great fantasy option. But from a baseball perspective Jeff Francoeur, Melky Cabrera, Alex Gordon and Kila Ka’aihue all have solid potential to be good baseball players, but I just don’t know if they all can put it together well enough to get to the playoffs by themselves. I really like all those guys as baseball players because of the flashes of brilliance they have all shown in their relatively young careers, but none of them are as experienced or accomplished as Billy Butler, and even he’s not that sexy. This offense has a lot of strong components, but I can’t see them putting it all together.
From the pitching perspective, there’s really not a whole hell of a lot to talk about here. Greinke is gone and Meche retired (quite admirably even though he was never THAT good). So what does that leave us with? The best closer in the league and nobody to get the ball into his hands, Joakim Soria. What they have is Luke Hochevar and Kyle Davies, young guys who haven’t done a whole heck of a lot in the bigs. I do expect new addition Jeff Francis to perform for them after the decent season he put together for the Rockies last year, and getting out of Coors should help him pitch a little better.
Fantasy Outlook:
I’ve talked about Aviles and I think he’s capable of playing like a Brian Roberts type player in his prime. Billy Butler is also a guy to keep an eye on. Do I think Butler can hit 25 homers? No. But he knows how to take walks, he has a great slugging percentage and batting average, and he is the best offensive player on this team. If you miss out on the powerful 1st baseman, Butler isn’t a terribly far step back in that category for a whole lot cheaper of a price. The other guys I mentioned earlier are all dudes I would take fliers on if you’re beginning to get apathetic at the end of your draft. I think either Gordon, Ka’aihue and Francoeur could be surprises and if I had to pick one, I’d actually say Gordon. Ka’aihue is still very young and Francoeur strikes out a little too much, but the move to the outfield really helped Gordon last year and I think he could be ready to be a shadow of his projected self 4 years ago, which is still pretty damn good.
Soria is obviously a top dude. Even though he’s asked people to stop calling him the Mexicutioner, I think it’s an apt nickname for such a dominant pitcher. As with previous years, the main question will be if Soria can get the ball or not. Outside of Soria, I think the only other pitcher to take a long look at is Jeff Francis. He showed some stretches of quality last season. He’s not a guy I’d draft, but someone I’d keep an eye on in a relatively weak-hitting division.
3. Detroit Tigers
If you remember well, you know that this team straight-up collapsed last year. You can’t say they stopped playing, but they just seemed unable to win games. They made a few critical acquisitions like Victor Martinez and Brad Penny which will greatly help this offense and pitching staff as long as both these guys, especially Penny, stays healthy. Picking this team third wasn’t hard to do, and I touched on how much deeper this division was now, but I don’t think this offense is good enough to win this division. I don’t want to perpetuate the whole “Miguel Cabrera is distracted” talk because I don’t think it’s going to be a huge deal, but I worry about the competence of his supporting cast should he not perform. Austin Jackson was Yin in the first half and Yang in the second half of the season (Yin=very good/Yang=very bad), Will Rhymes, Brennan Boesch and Ryan Raburn are so young and unproven and Ordonez is old and disproven. There’s certainly something to be said for Victor Martinez’s presence, but I don’t think he and Miggy alone can carry this offense. I don’t see any of the other young and inexperienced hitters putting together a good enough season to lead this team to enough wins to take down this division. Boesch is someone I will be keeping an eye on, but he played beyond his skill set last season, but I think he can still be a very solid contributor to the Tigers this year. Looking at the back end of this lineup, I don’t think that Jhonny Peralta and Brandon Inge really scare pitchers anymore. The combination of youth, inexperience, and inflated numbers last year led to the Tigers demise in the 2nd half last year and I worry that this offense could be in for a long year, even with a solid V-Mart and Miggy. But this pitching staff will keep them in a lot of games.
The bullpen is good, but not great. Valverde closing games can always be a risk, but Joaquin Benoit was a big acquisition for this team because he was fantastic for the Rays last year, and I think Benoit will get a lot more attention this year as the Tigers setup man. This rotation has a very solid top four. Verlander is a stud, Scherzer was fantastic after figuring out a flaw in his delivery midway through last year, Porcello struggled last year, but I think this is going to be a good year for him, and if Brad Penny stays healthy, he can be solid for the Tigers this year. The rest of the bullpen isn’t anything special, but I think there’s enough experience and upside in this pitching staff to help the Tigers be successful this year. But the combination of average hitting and slightly above-average pitching isn’t enough to win this competitive division.
Fantasy Outlook:
The two obvious offensive names are Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, but outside of that, there’s not too much sexiness there. Some of their young guys like Boesch and Jackson played a little above their heads last year and I don’t think they will put together AS good fantasy seasons this year. The rest of this lineup doesn’t scare pitchers enough because they don’t do anything scary anymore that will help people win fantasy championships. I don’t see anybody else on this team contributing enough offensively to warrant being drafted with expectation in a mixed fantasy baseball league.
The pitching has some names to look out for. In many ways I look at Virginia native Justin Verlander and “two-different-colored-eyes” Max Scherzer (it’s true) as being almost the same pitcher because they each have great strikeout potential and can put together dominant stretches that just make hitters look stupid. Verlander is going to be a little cheaper than Scherzer. While I project great seasons for both, I think Scherzer could be a better option for 2011. Penny could be a great bargain option for the Tigers like he was with the Cardinals before he got hurt, so if he can stay healthy, he’s a guy I like to get double digit wins with an ERA around 4. He’s one of those guys that won’t go in the top 250, so keep an eye on him if he hits the waiver wire after your fantasy draft. Valverde is a good closer, but always a guy I keep an eye on because he’s not the most trustworthy of closers. Benoit is the type of setup guy I love because he strikes a lot of guys out and he will keep that ERA and WHIP obnoxiously low. I briefly mentioned Rick Porcello and how I think he will bounce back at least a little. So far he’s off to a great spring and I think he will continue that into the regular season.
2. Minnesota Twins
I truly love and respect Ron Gardenhire and I think he’s one of the best managers in the game. Year after year he takes average to above-average talent and he makes them great. This year will be no exception. The team returns everybody, has a lot of good talent, and adds one of the best players from Japan. The main questions I have about this team are the health of Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer, and whether some of their young bats can repeat the great years they had last season. I think Delmon Young will be very good this season, but I worry a little bit about Danny Valencia. It’ll be interesting to see how he does in a full season, but I’m not too optimistic. The reason this team is so good offensively is because the guys you’ve never heard of carry the team offensively. Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer continue to put out good numbers and contribute to this team with great power and the ability to drive in Mauer and Morneau. Target Field also played like a big-time pitchers park last year, but it’ll be interesting to see if some of the hitters adjust their swings to the park a little better in the 2nd year like many of the Mets did last year.
The Twins pitching staff is sort of hit or miss to me, but generally I think they’re going to be hits. I worry a little bit about Pavano being able to repeat what he did last year, I worry about Blackburn as a whole, and I worry about Baker on the road. But I am a huge believer in Brian Duensing and have developed a big man-crush on Francisco Liriano. Liriano will be the anchor of this rotation which I can see pitching extremely well in spurts and not-so-hot at times. As a whole this is a solid rotation who have the experience and ability to do some great things in September, but I look at the Twins and see a team that cannot win in October as they haven’t made that one acquisition that puts them over the top. Nishioka is not that acquisition, by the way. But Pat Neshek and Jose Mijares have been solid staples of that bullpen, and the move by Matt Capps back to the bullpen sets up things for Nathan really well, assuming Nathan is fully over the Tommy John surgery that kept him out of the 2010 campaign.
Fantasy Outlook:
I still have my doubts and worries about Morneau. How strong and able is he to hit for the power and average we’ve come to expect out of him. How well he do in a full season in Target field? I am also staying as far away from Joe Mauer as possible. Whenever he is drafted or whatever another owner pays for him will certainly not be worth a guy who hit only 1 home run at home and is playing the games most demanding position coming off of knee surgery. For a guy who doesn’t run anymore, I am just not a believer that he can contribute to your team as much as Brian McCann, Buster Posey or Victor Martinez. Kubel and Cuddyer are two guys who are as consistent as they come, and given the difficulties finding power in the outfield, they are mid to late round guys to target who will greatly help your team. Denard Span will be a good, cheap source of speed at the end of your draft, but I worry he may not help you as much in other categories. Delmon Young was in the MVP conversation last year, and I think he could pick his game up even more if Morneau and Mauer manage to stay healthy. I have big-time faith in Delmon Young and can see him putting up another 25-100 campaign. Nishioka is the other notable fantasy player to mention, and I’m not even going to try to predict what he can do in the majors because Japanese players are hit or miss. He’s a finesse player and maybe that ballpark will play to that with the big gaps at Target Field
Like I said, the pitching will be hit or miss. I don’t know if Pavano can do it again, but there’s really no good evidence to see why he can’t. I like Pavano a lot and think pitching many of his games in that ballpark with a decent defense will give him another productive season. Liriano is one of those guys who is going WAY too late in many of the mocks I’ve been in. I think this guy can be a top 10 pitcher, so if you think he is going to go soon, try to get him. I will be staying away from Nathan this year, but I have no reason to think he won’t make it as a dominant closer this year. Tommy John is always tricky, but if you’re going to draft Nathan then why not get Capps as well to handcuff him?
1.Chicago White Sox
The AL Central has a funny habit of coming down to the final days of September, and I don’t have any reason to believe this season will be different. But when you look at this team, they are the most complete squad in this division, and maybe even the AL. The White Sox acquisition of Adam Dunn may be the 3rd most important acquisition in the AL behind Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez. The team has a touch of speed, a dash of power and a whole lot of experience on offense. The guys who have been there before like Konerko, Dunn, Pierre and Quentin will make up for the talent they have that haven’t been there like Beckham and Brent Morel, who will probably get the job at 3rd.
The White Sox rotation has a bunch of solid guys who know how to keep their team in games. Buehrle’s never been the most attractive pitcher, but he always goes out and gets the job done. Floyd and Danks are solid pitchers who pitch to the defense behind them. While Edwin Jackson has shown some inconsistencies, mainly in his control, he has also put together some solid games. I am optimistic about Jackson this season, though. The bullpen is also very consistent and will keep this team in many games. Thornton or Sale will close and whoever doesn’t is a solid setup man alongside Jessie Crain and Will Ohman.
Fantasy Outlook:
Dunn highlights the fantasy options for this team, and he’s a guy I have no problems overpaying for or overdrafting bcause the power potential is too great to pass up, especially given his move to a more hitter-friendly location. He kills the ball no matter where he is, but now he’s got a better lineup protecting him and he finally gets to DH and if Konerko does anything this year, Dunn will benefit greatly. Konerko surprised a lot of people with his great success last year, and I think we could see similar numbers from him again this year. He’s a good, late power option who could help you win your league this year because of his value in the middle of the draft. Juan Pierre might have his best season yet with this offense too. For a guy with an almost career .300 average with this offense behind him, he could put up spectacular speed numbers to go along with all the runs he may score. Gordon Beckham is a big question mark after falling way short of expectations last year, but Ozzie stuck with him, which means he sees something, and he started to gain back the confidence towards the end of the year that he lost at the beginning of the year. With that mindset coming into this season that your manager’s got your back, I think Beckham could settle in and have a great offensive year. And I haven’t even gotten to Alex Rios, Carlos Quentin and Sexy Alexei Ramirez. Rios’s 2nd half was pretty putrid last year so I like to stay away from guys like him who haven’t been able to put a full season together. If Carlos Quentin is healthy, he’s another guy who you will get even later than Konerko that will give you a great power boost. And Ramirez will be a solid short stop option despite not hitting for great average.
This team’s pitchers are all solid value picks this season, especially Danks. Starting pitching is so deep this season that it’s easy to get lost in the shuffle of guys who don’t strike a heck of a lot of people out or get a lot of the attention being in the Midwest, but Danks and Floyd will be solid value plays this year. Edwin Jackson has great upside, but I don’t see him being the picture of consistency that will make him a consistent fantasy starter in any league. Whether Thornton or Sale is the closer of this team, I think both of them will be solid as the closer, definitely better than Bobby Jenks was.
I want to preface this season’s baseball projections by saying that this year has been extremely hard to predict on many levels. I think there are a lot of contenders this year that could win the whole thing. I think we’re going to see the most exciting September in a while.
In this preview I will give you my predictions for the regular season as well as a season outlook on every team including some relevant fantasy players on each team that you should take note of. I will be posting The Knurve’s predictions by division, so if you want to go straight to a division of interest, click on the right side under March and you can find that division.
So, without further due HERE is The Knurve’s comprehensive season preview:
AL Central
The name of my most important fantasy baseball league last season was “Better than the AL Central.” I view this name as extremely ironic this year, because after a whole host of acquisitions, the AL Central is relevant again. From top to bottom, the AL East is head and shoulders above every other division in baseball, but the top 3 in the AL Central are all teams I could see going all the way.
5. Cleveland Indians
This team’s offense is simply too old to compete in this league and division. Bringing in aging guys like Austin Kearns and Orlando Cabrera may help them, but Travis Hafner hasn’t swung the bat well in a while and Grady Sizemore may not be completely healthy. That being said, I love Shin-Soo Choo and Carlos Santana, Michael Brantley has potential to be a solid leadoff hitter, and Asdrubal Cabrera is a solid player. My biggest problem with this offense is that they’re all average. Matt LaPorta has been a relative disappointment in the majors (remember the Brewers traded him in the Sabathia deal) and I just can’t see this team putting together a respectable offense than can win 90+games.
The pitching is also sub-par. Masterson has the talent, but he hasn’t been able to put it all together for a major league season. I think Carmona’s 2010 is exactly what we can expect in 2011, high 3’s ERA, not a lot of K’s, and not a lot of wins. The rest of the rotation will not be very strong between Mitch Talbot, Carlos Carrasco and Josh Tomlin. I can’t see any of those three putting together respectable enough season’s. The Indian’s bullpen isn’t terrible, though. They have one of the best closers in the game in Chris Perez, and Joe Smith, Chad Durbin and Raphael Perez aren’t terrible.
When push comes to shove, this team just isn’t very good and will have a long and disappointing year.
Fantasy Outlook:
Choo is one of the best fantasy outfielders in the game. He’s going to hit close to .300 with great plate patience and he’s a consistent 20/20 guy. He’s an outfielder who is going to only help your fantasy team, so I would keep an eye on him as a 3rd or 4th round pick. In a relatively weak short stop position, I’d also take a look at Asdrubal Cabrera as a late-round pickup. He’s not sexy, but Cabrera can give you double-digit homers and steals with a solid batting average. When it comes to guys at the end of a draft, you’re always looking for guys with great upside who could help you tremendously, or a solid track record so they won’t hurt you, Cabrera is one of those guys who won’t hurt you. Brantley could be a very good and very cheap source of speed. And speaking of speed/power guys, I think I have to talk about Sizemore. If Sizemore is healthy, he has great upside, but I worry with micro-fracture surgery how much he’ll be like his old self. He was struggling before the surgery and he struggled the year before. I don’t think there’s any doubting his upside, but he may be a good upside pick in the late-teen rounds of your draft.
There’s nothing too sexy about any pitchers not named Fausto Carmona or Chris Perez. I think Carmona’s 2009 was a bit of an aberration but in 2010 he was a nice bounce back play. He’s got one of the most potent sinkers in the game when he’s throwing it well. In the over 34 innings he threw last September, he posted a 1.82 ERA but only recorded one win. Chris Perez is a guy who won’t be one of the first 3 or 4 closers taken, but he is what I like to call a perfect draft-ee. When the other schmo-bags in your league are taking the top guys like Rivera, Broxton, Papelbon, Bell and Wilson, you can take hitters which will help your team even more, then you take a guy like Perez who will be a stud this year. Masterson’s a sleeper guy I’d look out for, he’s one of those waiver wire guys that can help your team immensely if he hits a hot streak.
4. Kansas City Royals
As much as I want this team to succeed and think they will have the tools to do it, the pitching just isn’t there this year, especially after trading away Zach Greinke. As much as their offense got better by trading away Greinke, their pitching got that much worse. I really like Alcides Escobar as a sleeper short stop this year and think he can hit for average and add a nice touch of speed at a shallow position this year. If you ask my fantasy arch-nemesis Brad Sussman who the unexpected MVP of his fantasy team (which lost to me in the championship last year) was, he’d probably tell you that Mike Aviles was his guy. Aviles is one of those guys who, given the chance to lead off, which he probably will, could be as valuable a player this year in the AL Central. He’s got the speed, and if any of the bats behind him have some trace of a good year, he could be a great fantasy option. But from a baseball perspective Jeff Francoeur, Melky Cabrera, Alex Gordon and Kila Ka’aihue all have solid potential to be good baseball players, but I just don’t know if they all can put it together well enough to get to the playoffs by themselves. I really like all those guys as baseball players because of the flashes of brilliance they have all shown in their relatively young careers, but none of them are as experienced or accomplished as Billy Butler, and even he’s not that sexy. This offense has a lot of strong components, but I can’t see them putting it all together.
From the pitching perspective, there’s really not a whole hell of a lot to talk about here. Greinke is gone and Meche retired (quite admirably even though he was never THAT good). So what does that leave us with? The best closer in the league and nobody to get the ball into his hands, Joakim Soria. What they have is Luke Hochevar and Kyle Davies, young guys who haven’t done a whole heck of a lot in the bigs. I do expect new addition Jeff Francis to perform for them after the decent season he put together for the Rockies last year, and getting out of Coors should help him pitch a little better.
Fantasy Outlook:
I’ve talked about Aviles and I think he’s capable of playing like a Brian Roberts type player in his prime. Billy Butler is also a guy to keep an eye on. Do I think Butler can hit 25 homers? No. But he knows how to take walks, he has a great slugging percentage and batting average, and he is the best offensive player on this team. If you miss out on the powerful 1st baseman, Butler isn’t a terribly far step back in that category for a whole lot cheaper of a price. The other guys I mentioned earlier are all dudes I would take fliers on if you’re beginning to get apathetic at the end of your draft. I think either Gordon, Ka’aihue and Francoeur could be surprises and if I had to pick one, I’d actually say Gordon. Ka’aihue is still very young and Francoeur strikes out a little too much, but the move to the outfield really helped Gordon last year and I think he could be ready to be a shadow of his projected self 4 years ago, which is still pretty damn good.
Soria is obviously a top dude. Even though he’s asked people to stop calling him the Mexicutioner, I think it’s an apt nickname for such a dominant pitcher. As with previous years, the main question will be if Soria can get the ball or not. Outside of Soria, I think the only other pitcher to take a long look at is Jeff Francis. He showed some stretches of quality last season. He’s not a guy I’d draft, but someone I’d keep an eye on in a relatively weak-hitting division.
3. Detroit Tigers
If you remember well, you know that this team straight-up collapsed last year. You can’t say they stopped playing, but they just seemed unable to win games. They made a few critical acquisitions like Victor Martinez and Brad Penny which will greatly help this offense and pitching staff as long as both these guys, especially Penny, stays healthy. Picking this team third wasn’t hard to do, and I touched on how much deeper this division was now, but I don’t think this offense is good enough to win this division. I don’t want to perpetuate the whole “Miguel Cabrera is distracted” talk because I don’t think it’s going to be a huge deal, but I worry about the competence of his supporting cast should he not perform. Austin Jackson was Yin in the first half and Yang in the second half of the season (Yin=very good/Yang=very bad), Will Rhymes, Brennan Boesch and Ryan Raburn are so young and unproven and Ordonez is old and disproven. There’s certainly something to be said for Victor Martinez’s presence, but I don’t think he and Miggy alone can carry this offense. I don’t see any of the other young and inexperienced hitters putting together a good enough season to lead this team to enough wins to take down this division. Boesch is someone I will be keeping an eye on, but he played beyond his skill set last season, but I think he can still be a very solid contributor to the Tigers this year. Looking at the back end of this lineup, I don’t think that Jhonny Peralta and Brandon Inge really scare pitchers anymore. The combination of youth, inexperience, and inflated numbers last year led to the Tigers demise in the 2nd half last year and I worry that this offense could be in for a long year, even with a solid V-Mart and Miggy. But this pitching staff will keep them in a lot of games.
The bullpen is good, but not great. Valverde closing games can always be a risk, but Joaquin Benoit was a big acquisition for this team because he was fantastic for the Rays last year, and I think Benoit will get a lot more attention this year as the Tigers setup man. This rotation has a very solid top four. Verlander is a stud, Scherzer was fantastic after figuring out a flaw in his delivery midway through last year, Porcello struggled last year, but I think this is going to be a good year for him, and if Brad Penny stays healthy, he can be solid for the Tigers this year. The rest of the bullpen isn’t anything special, but I think there’s enough experience and upside in this pitching staff to help the Tigers be successful this year. But the combination of average hitting and slightly above-average pitching isn’t enough to win this competitive division.
Fantasy Outlook:
The two obvious offensive names are Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, but outside of that, there’s not too much sexiness there. Some of their young guys like Boesch and Jackson played a little above their heads last year and I don’t think they will put together AS good fantasy seasons this year. The rest of this lineup doesn’t scare pitchers enough because they don’t do anything scary anymore that will help people win fantasy championships. I don’t see anybody else on this team contributing enough offensively to warrant being drafted with expectation in a mixed fantasy baseball league.
The pitching has some names to look out for. In many ways I look at Virginia native Justin Verlander and “two-different-colored-eyes” Max Scherzer (it’s true) as being almost the same pitcher because they each have great strikeout potential and can put together dominant stretches that just make hitters look stupid. Verlander is going to be a little cheaper than Scherzer. While I project great seasons for both, I think Scherzer could be a better option for 2011. Penny could be a great bargain option for the Tigers like he was with the Cardinals before he got hurt, so if he can stay healthy, he’s a guy I like to get double digit wins with an ERA around 4. He’s one of those guys that won’t go in the top 250, so keep an eye on him if he hits the waiver wire after your fantasy draft. Valverde is a good closer, but always a guy I keep an eye on because he’s not the most trustworthy of closers. Benoit is the type of setup guy I love because he strikes a lot of guys out and he will keep that ERA and WHIP obnoxiously low. I briefly mentioned Rick Porcello and how I think he will bounce back at least a little. So far he’s off to a great spring and I think he will continue that into the regular season.
2. Minnesota Twins
I truly love and respect Ron Gardenhire and I think he’s one of the best managers in the game. Year after year he takes average to above-average talent and he makes them great. This year will be no exception. The team returns everybody, has a lot of good talent, and adds one of the best players from Japan. The main questions I have about this team are the health of Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer, and whether some of their young bats can repeat the great years they had last season. I think Delmon Young will be very good this season, but I worry a little bit about Danny Valencia. It’ll be interesting to see how he does in a full season, but I’m not too optimistic. The reason this team is so good offensively is because the guys you’ve never heard of carry the team offensively. Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer continue to put out good numbers and contribute to this team with great power and the ability to drive in Mauer and Morneau. Target Field also played like a big-time pitchers park last year, but it’ll be interesting to see if some of the hitters adjust their swings to the park a little better in the 2nd year like many of the Mets did last year.
The Twins pitching staff is sort of hit or miss to me, but generally I think they’re going to be hits. I worry a little bit about Pavano being able to repeat what he did last year, I worry about Blackburn as a whole, and I worry about Baker on the road. But I am a huge believer in Brian Duensing and have developed a big man-crush on Francisco Liriano. Liriano will be the anchor of this rotation which I can see pitching extremely well in spurts and not-so-hot at times. As a whole this is a solid rotation who have the experience and ability to do some great things in September, but I look at the Twins and see a team that cannot win in October as they haven’t made that one acquisition that puts them over the top. Nishioka is not that acquisition, by the way. But Pat Neshek and Jose Mijares have been solid staples of that bullpen, and the move by Matt Capps back to the bullpen sets up things for Nathan really well, assuming Nathan is fully over the Tommy John surgery that kept him out of the 2010 campaign.
Fantasy Outlook:
I still have my doubts and worries about Morneau. How strong and able is he to hit for the power and average we’ve come to expect out of him. How well he do in a full season in Target field? I am also staying as far away from Joe Mauer as possible. Whenever he is drafted or whatever another owner pays for him will certainly not be worth a guy who hit only 1 home run at home and is playing the games most demanding position coming off of knee surgery. For a guy who doesn’t run anymore, I am just not a believer that he can contribute to your team as much as Brian McCann, Buster Posey or Victor Martinez. Kubel and Cuddyer are two guys who are as consistent as they come, and given the difficulties finding power in the outfield, they are mid to late round guys to target who will greatly help your team. Denard Span will be a good, cheap source of speed at the end of your draft, but I worry he may not help you as much in other categories. Delmon Young was in the MVP conversation last year, and I think he could pick his game up even more if Morneau and Mauer manage to stay healthy. I have big-time faith in Delmon Young and can see him putting up another 25-100 campaign. Nishioka is the other notable fantasy player to mention, and I’m not even going to try to predict what he can do in the majors because Japanese players are hit or miss. He’s a finesse player and maybe that ballpark will play to that with the big gaps at Target Field
Like I said, the pitching will be hit or miss. I don’t know if Pavano can do it again, but there’s really no good evidence to see why he can’t. I like Pavano a lot and think pitching many of his games in that ballpark with a decent defense will give him another productive season. Liriano is one of those guys who is going WAY too late in many of the mocks I’ve been in. I think this guy can be a top 10 pitcher, so if you think he is going to go soon, try to get him. I will be staying away from Nathan this year, but I have no reason to think he won’t make it as a dominant closer this year. Tommy John is always tricky, but if you’re going to draft Nathan then why not get Capps as well to handcuff him?
1.Chicago White Sox
The AL Central has a funny habit of coming down to the final days of September, and I don’t have any reason to believe this season will be different. But when you look at this team, they are the most complete squad in this division, and maybe even the AL. The White Sox acquisition of Adam Dunn may be the 3rd most important acquisition in the AL behind Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez. The team has a touch of speed, a dash of power and a whole lot of experience on offense. The guys who have been there before like Konerko, Dunn, Pierre and Quentin will make up for the talent they have that haven’t been there like Beckham and Brent Morel, who will probably get the job at 3rd.
The White Sox rotation has a bunch of solid guys who know how to keep their team in games. Buehrle’s never been the most attractive pitcher, but he always goes out and gets the job done. Floyd and Danks are solid pitchers who pitch to the defense behind them. While Edwin Jackson has shown some inconsistencies, mainly in his control, he has also put together some solid games. I am optimistic about Jackson this season, though. The bullpen is also very consistent and will keep this team in many games. Thornton or Sale will close and whoever doesn’t is a solid setup man alongside Jessie Crain and Will Ohman.
Fantasy Outlook:
Dunn highlights the fantasy options for this team, and he’s a guy I have no problems overpaying for or overdrafting bcause the power potential is too great to pass up, especially given his move to a more hitter-friendly location. He kills the ball no matter where he is, but now he’s got a better lineup protecting him and he finally gets to DH and if Konerko does anything this year, Dunn will benefit greatly. Konerko surprised a lot of people with his great success last year, and I think we could see similar numbers from him again this year. He’s a good, late power option who could help you win your league this year because of his value in the middle of the draft. Juan Pierre might have his best season yet with this offense too. For a guy with an almost career .300 average with this offense behind him, he could put up spectacular speed numbers to go along with all the runs he may score. Gordon Beckham is a big question mark after falling way short of expectations last year, but Ozzie stuck with him, which means he sees something, and he started to gain back the confidence towards the end of the year that he lost at the beginning of the year. With that mindset coming into this season that your manager’s got your back, I think Beckham could settle in and have a great offensive year. And I haven’t even gotten to Alex Rios, Carlos Quentin and Sexy Alexei Ramirez. Rios’s 2nd half was pretty putrid last year so I like to stay away from guys like him who haven’t been able to put a full season together. If Carlos Quentin is healthy, he’s another guy who you will get even later than Konerko that will give you a great power boost. And Ramirez will be a solid short stop option despite not hitting for great average.
This team’s pitchers are all solid value picks this season, especially Danks. Starting pitching is so deep this season that it’s easy to get lost in the shuffle of guys who don’t strike a heck of a lot of people out or get a lot of the attention being in the Midwest, but Danks and Floyd will be solid value plays this year. Edwin Jackson has great upside, but I don’t see him being the picture of consistency that will make him a consistent fantasy starter in any league. Whether Thornton or Sale is the closer of this team, I think both of them will be solid as the closer, definitely better than Bobby Jenks was.
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