AL East Preview....

I want to preface this season’s baseball projections by saying that this year has been extremely hard to predict on many levels. I think there are a lot of contenders this year that could win the whole thing. I think we’re going to see the most exciting September in a while.
In this preview I will give you my predictions for the regular season as well as a season outlook on every team including some relevant fantasy players on each team that you should take note of. I will be posting The Knurve’s predictions by division, so if you want to go straight to a division of interest, click on the right side under March and you can find that division.
So, without further due HERE is The Knurve’s comprehensive season preview:

AL East:
There is no doubt in my mind that from top to bottom this is the absolute toughest division in baseball. With new critical additions by every one of the teams in this division, it’s going to be very interesting to see how this one plays out. Every game in this division is going to be a dogfight. I think the favorite is clear-cut, but 2-5 is going to be a lot tougher to predict than most people think.

5. Baltimore Orioles


I spent a lot of time trying to decide if the Orioles really belonged here. This is a team that has a ton of exciting components that they’ve brought in. However, they have the misfortune of being in this extremely difficult division. I think the addition of Vladamir Guererro and Mark Reynolds are huge. Couple those two with an upstart bat in Adam Jones and some decent young pitching and we see great potential here. I just don’t think they are a team that can put together wins against some of the other pitching staffs in the rest of this division.

There’s no doubting this team has talent on the mound, I just don’t think it’s a rotation and bullpen that can completely succeed with the amount of good bats in the AL East. I want to see this team succeed and I think they’re going to be a whole heck of a lot better than they were last year, but I don’t know if Luke Scott has another year like he had last year, I don’t know if Vlad has another season like last year’s in the tank, and I don’t know how healthy Brian Roberts is. There’s a lot to be excited about when talking about this team, but I think they’re still a year or two away. This team will play really well at some points in the season, I can see some series sweeps of teams like the Yankees and the Red Sox, but I think they won’t have enough tools to compete with them the whole season.

Fantasy Outlook:
Adam Jones is a great bargain outfielder with great potential this season. He didn’t run a whole bunch last year, but I can see Showalter, an aggressive manager, put him and Roberts’ legs to the test a little more this season. In a year of fantasy with some power outages across the league, don’t forget that Camden Yards plays as one of the top 10 hitter friendly parks in the league. Sure, it’s not Texas, but I think Vlad could be a great source of cheap power for many fantasy players. There are a whole bunch of more safe 1st baseman options than Derrick Lee, but there’s no reason he can’t put together a solid season.

The Oriole’s pitching staff has a lot of potential, there’s no doubting that. Guthrie has been a consistent performer and can be seen as another sub-4 ERA pitcher who picks up a few more wins this year than the low double-digit total he had last year. Matusz is a big dude who has gotten a lot of attention as a potential great arm for the O’s and I think he could have a great year. He’s not pitching in a great division or ballpark, but that’s not to say he can’t dominate outside of the division or pitch well in some big games. The O’s 3rd starter is Justin Duchscherer and he always gets hurt it seems, but I would keep an eye on him. He will most likely pitch well in April and people will pick him up, because all indications are that he’s healthy, but don’t put too many eggs in that basket.

4. Tampa Bay Rays


I really wanted to put the Rays 5th in the AL East, but I didn’t think that was fair. Joe Maddon is too good of a manager, and the pitching here is too good to finish worst in this division. That being said, this pitching staff is very young and very unproven as a whole. This team lost their best player in Carl Crawford, their best power threat in Carlos Pena and their top closer in Raphael Soriano. Quite simply, this offense is nowhere near as scary as it once was. Longoria is a young dude with a huge load to shoulder offensively in a very pitcher-friendly ballpark. When you’re relying on Reid Brignac, Sean Rodriguez, Dan Johnson and Ben Zobrist, you don’t have something too scary. I don’t know what Manny and Johnny Damon have left in the tank, but I don’t think it’s enough to help out Longoria offensively. I look at this offense and I see a team in trouble.

The starting pitching on this team could be the best in the division. There are a lot of statistics that indicate David Price got lucky last year, but Wade Davis looked great at times last year, James Shields is a proven pitcher, Jeff Neimann had a great year last year, and Jeremy Hellickson is a stud prospect who turned a lot of heads last year with his performance in the bigs. I think this is a pitching staff that can amaze a lot of people. This rotation will keep this team in a lot of close games, especially in a division with so many prolific offenses. The Rays offense is easily the worst in this division, but something needs to be said for pitching, and the Rays certainly have it in their starting rotation.

Fantasy Outlook:
Obviously Longoria is a man to be feared, but outside of him, I don’t know exactly what this team is. I don’t think Manny is capable of hitting 30 home runs anymore, both because of health issues and being over the proverbial hill. I don’t think Johnny Damon can be viewed as a legitimate fantasy baseball contributor because he doesn’t do anything in the counting stats anymore except maybe score some runs. B.J. Upton needs to have a great year for this team, but he’s obviously a batting average liability. He will be a great speed boost for any team, but don’t pay too much for him, he won’t be worth it.

All of the pitchers in this rotation can well be worth their draft pick. I am a little worried that people will overpay for Price, but I think he will still put together a solid year, just with less wins. Davis, Sheilds, Niemann and Hellickson are all going a little lower in drafts and I think they are the guys you would want to target more so than Price because they will come at a better, well, price.

3. New York Yankees


Fans of either team love to cry foul when the Yankees or Red Sox do not finish 1-2 in some way, shape, or form. When I look at this Yankee team, I see a phenomenal offense capable of scoring a stupid amount of runs. The big guns of Teixeira, Cano, Granderson, Rodriguez, Jeter and Swisher will be back and will certainly swing the bat well at times this year. Obviously I’m picking this team to finish 3rd because of the pitching, but I think A-Rod and Jeter are further past their primes than Yankee fans want to think. I am getting very nitpicky with this offense, but I think those two being one year older makes this offense a little weaker than they were last year. With a weaker offense and a terrible rotation, I think there’s reason for concern.

Outside of C.C. this rotation doesn’t do it for me. There’s a reason the Yankees went out and signed schmo-bags like Mark Prior, Bartolo Colon, and Freddy Garcia in the offseason. I viewed those three acquisitions as the Yankees pushing the panic button on their pitching staff this season. Phil Hughes was pretty atrocious after the break, and A.J. Burnett was simply atrocious for the whole season. After those two, the bombers are going to rely on either Sergio Mitre, Ivan Nova, or Freddy Garcia as of now. I see so many red flags here. It’s really difficult for me to pick this team to finish 3rd given this offense, but I don’t think the Yankees bullpen is good enough to endure the beating the Yankees 2-5 may hand to them. If Cliff Lee goes to the Yankees, this team is easily a 2nd or 1st place team, but I just don’t see it.

Fantasy Outlook:
Where do you start? I love Teixeira this year, especially given the fact that he’s being projected in the late 2nd early/early 3rd round. Robinson Cano is the best 2nd baseman in the game, and Granderson’s 2nd half last year has me thinking he can hit a home run once every 3 or 4 games at home AND steal 15-20 bases. Sabathia will be great again, and Rivera will be dominant once his bullpen hands the game off to him. I think fantasy owners need to recognize what A-Rod is now. He’s not going to steal you bases, and it looks like he’s starting to swing for the fences a little more, accounting for the decline in batting average each of the last four years. I think he’s good for an 80-30-100 season, but don’t expect the speed and batting average to accompany it. The lack of depth at short makes me think Jeter is a good play this year, but like A-Rod, don’t expect an average above .300.

2. Toronto Blue Jays


When I originally sat down to do these rankings for the first time, I had the Jays as my 5th place team in this division. But in looking at this team more and more, I think I’m slowly falling in love with them. I loved Cito Gaston, but John Farrell as the manager of this team with such dynamic young pitchers and experienced, powerful and skillfull hitters makes a recipe of delicious-ness for me.

On offense, I think the acquisition of Rajai Davis gives them a dynamic leadoff hitter who can hit for average, has crazy amounts of speed, and is a defensive stud. Yunel Escobar is a question mark behind Davis, but the middle of this lineup gets dangerous quick. Jose Bautista won’t hit more than 50 home runs again, but 35-40? Why not? I like Adam Lind to bounce back after posting a solid July, August and September last year. Lind provides a great left-handed bat in the middle of that lineup. Follow Lind with the powerful Aaron Hill, young and powerful Travis Snider, and then new acquisition Juan Rivera and I think this team is something to be excited about. They led the majors in homers last year by almost 40, and I see that happening again this year, but with more experienced young hitters, and a better pitching staff to keep them ahead in games.

I think Ricky Romero has paid his dues and is ready to roll, I think Brandon Morrow could be one of the most dominant pitchers in the AL East, Brett Cecil was phenomenal in 4 of last season’s 6 months, and I think Marc Rzepczynski and Kyle Drabek will make great leaps and bounds under Farrell. This starting rotation certainly has some holes, but they’re balanced and they have such great potential and we saw flashes of it last year. I think any great bullpen hides a rotation’s weaknesses and Frank Francisco, Octavio Dotel and Jon Rauch are all former closers who have had amazing success in many major league bullpens. Those three offseason acquisitions by the Jays will be critical in comforting the youth of their rotation.

Fantasy Outlook:
If you read my draft day manifesto on the blog, you’ll know that I think power needs to be chased this season, and if you want power and aren’t sure where to find it, look at this team. See this team, embrace this team, love this team. This team is big and strong on offense and young and skillful on the mound. I like Aaron Hill to have a strong year at 2nd, sort of like Dan Uggla-lite. Under normal pretenses, I think Jose Bautista is overrated, but because he plays 3rd, I think he’s worth the 3rd or 4th round pick you’ll use for him. I’ve said I like Lind for a bounce back year and I like Rajai Davis as a huge bargain for speed.

From a fantasy perspective, I think Romero and Morrow are good mid-round pitchers, and the bottom 3 guys are sleepers for me this season. Great options at the end of your draft that could help you win your deeper fantasy league.

1.Boston Red Sox


Is there even any question? In ranking the Red Sox the top team in this division, I wanted to be very careful so as not to make the auto-assumption that they’d win, but they’re the best team in this division and in the AL, hands down. The additions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez were expensive, but extremely worth it. The team has speed, the team has power, the team can get on base, the team can pitch, the team can close games, the team is phenomenal. They got very unlucky with injuries last year, losing Pedroia, Youkilis, Beckett, and Ellsbury. Now that they have those guys back and presumably healthy along with Crawford and Gonzalez, the sky is the limit for this offense. Even a terrible year by Ortiz can yield either an opening for a backup who got a lot of experience like Reddick, Lowerie, Nava, Kalish, or McDonald. I think Tito Francona trusts all these guys as apt replacements. The depth of the offense is astounding.

The starting rotation could have a few question marks like any other, but Lester and Buchholz should have great years at the top of the rotation, and Beckett has been solid this spring, even after getting hit in the head with a baseball. With Dice-K and Lackey being the weaknesses of this rotation, I think they have enough good spurts to negate the bad, presumably letting this offense do it’s thing. Then the bullpen should be fantastic. It think the Red Sox overpaid a lot for Jenks, but the additions of him and Wheeler, along with Alfredo Aceves and Okajima gives this bullpen a lot of experience and specialty men better than the Manny Delcarmens of the world.
Fantasy Outlook:
What’s not to like about all these guys? Pedroia is a top 2nd baseman, if Gonzalez is healthy I think he is good for 40 homers and a .300+ AVG, Crawford is my top fantasy outfielder, Lester is the 3rd best lefty in the majors (Lee and Sabathia), Buchholz will be great again, Ellsbury is healthy and if he leads off he could score a dumb amount of runs. This team is going to be exciting to watch. To be completely honest, one of my biggest worries is Papelbon, who has showed many signs of being human over the past 2 seasons, but I think he certainly goes as the rest of his team goes. Watch out for the Red Sox, they could win 105.