The World Series....

If you've been reading this blog, you'll know that I've talked at length about how baseball is played much differently out west. It's funny that two teams from the west will be competing for baseball's biggest crown. I've spent a countless amount of time trying to formulate who I think will win this series. The fact that I have almost no confidence in my prediction for who will win this series is representative of this idea that anything goes in the "wild west."

The Rangers
If you look at my full playoff preview, I picked the Rangers to get swept by the Rays. The primary reasons for that was the fact that they stumbled into October courtesy of poor pitching and poor health.

Their pitching this postseason has been GOOD but not great. You look at the team ERA of 2.76 and think they've been lights out. But outside of Cliff Lee, nobody else in that rotation; Wilson, Lewis, or Tommy Hunter really scare me. While we're on the topic of Cliff Lee, I just want to point out that he has struck out 34 batters and walked only 1 in 24 playoff innings pitched.

The Rangers offense has scored 59 runs this postseason, which is 23 runs more than the 2nd place Yankees in that category. I'd say the bats have woken up, and have woken up with vigor. Josh Hamilton has shown that he is healthy, Vladamir Guerrero has shown that he still has some gas left in the tank, big hits have come from Elvis Andrus and even former Giant Benjy "the tree trunk" Molina. This offense is clicking on all cylinders right now. The match-up versus the Giants pitching staff is going to be exciting to watch.

The Giants
The epitome of NL West baseball is scraping out wins the way the Giants have. It may not be pretty, it may not be flashy, it may not be sexy, but the Giants are a team that knows how to get the job done.

The Giants starting rotation has been as advertised, out-pitching the Phillies and Braves to get to the Fall Classic. Conversely, their offense has gotten the timely hits needed to reach the World Series. Any offense without significant weapons like a Josh Hamilton is especially reliant on hitting when runners are in scoring position. 23 of the Giants 30 post-season runs have been scored when runners are in scoring position. That ratio of 23 to 30 is the highest ratio of any team in the post-season, showing that they have been reliant on big hits, and have gotten them.

The World Series
Trying to predict this series is like trying to predict what Mike Tyson is thinking; it's very close to impossible. Poorly constructed compulsive jokes aside, there are three dichotomies taking place which I think are the most important things to consider when trying to predict this series: great hitting vs. great pitching, hitters park vs. pitchers park, and AL vs. NL.

Great Hitting vs. Great Pitching
It's going to be strange. The Giants rotation has been dominant. Everybody not named Cliff Lee has been solid for the Rangers, but not scary. From a purely pitching perspective, I'd say the edge goes to the Giants and it's not even that close. I don't trust EVERYBODY in the Rangers bullpen. The types of games the Giants play are the low-scoring, timely-hitting scrapers. The Rangers bullpen has been suspect at best this postseason. The 3 O's: Oliver, Ogando, and O'Day have been far from scary this postseason, and I don't think they're capable of holding it down for the Rangers well enough to hang with the Giants phenomenal pitching. Of course, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention the dominance that is Cliff Lee. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that he single-handedly gives the Rangers at least one win in this series. His acquisition was great for the Rangers

Conversely, the Rangers offense has been fearful this postseason. I was a big fan of the Rays pitching (hence my pick for them to win the World Series) coming into the postseason, but the Rangers did work against them. The Rangers also did work against the putrid Yankee pitching staff

Hitters Park vs. Pitchers Park
Combine the fact that the stronger offense in this series plays in the 6th best hitters park with the fact that the weaker offense plays in the 8th worst hitters park; this complicates predicting this series even more. To try and get to the crux of this I looked at home-road splits. The Rangers had the third best offense at home this season, scoring 430 runs in Arlington. Contrast that with their 357 runs away from Arlington, and we see a relatively large disparity with the Rangers offensive efficiency. In an attempt to gauge how the Rangers offense will perform in San Francisco, I looked at their performances in two of the most pitcher-friendly parks (which just so happen to be in their division), the A's and Mariners. Their offense was notably worse against those teams at home versus on the road. The A's have a solid rotation, and the Mariners were so-so, but the fact that the Rangers offense didn't put up intimidating numbers versus those teams in their venues makes me think that their bats will fall silent in San Francisco.

The Giants home ERA this season sat at a pretty 3.07. The Rangers away ERA this season was an ugly 4.24. Advantage: Giants.
The Rangers home ERA this season was 3.65. The Giants away ERA this season was the league best 3.67. Advantage: Giants.

I'm pretty sure you all can tell where I'm leaning with my prediction, but the last of these dichotomies may be the most important of them all.

AL vs. NL
The fact that Brian McCann may be the reason that the Giants win the World Series seems a little ridiculous to me, but that's a conversation for another day. This is the classic debate and what makes the World Series as exciting as it is. How will NL pitching do against superior AL hitting and vice versa?

For the Giants, facing Vladamir Guerrero in Texas instead of whatever scrub-hitting pitcher the Phillies would throw out there is a big challenge. But I have faith in this Giants pitching staff. They have been the best rotation in the whole league. I cannot see this Rangers team hitting against the Giants pitching or in AT&T Park because they have struggled in similar pitching-friendly venues.

The fact that the World Series is the AL vs. NL every year makes for enigmatic predictions and compelling storylines, and this year is no different.

The Prediction
I think Cliff Lee and the whole Rangers offense is worth something in this equation. I think the Rangers will win one of his 2 starts in this series, but I cannot see the rest of the Rangers pitching staff matching up with the Giants. The coolest stat I discovered while researching this prediction was that despite their reputation their offense has for being poor, the G-Men have led the NL in Homers since the All-Star break.

That being said, I think the Giants will have success in Texas against Colby Lewis and Tommy Hunter in games three and four. Lincecum will beat Cliff Lee in one of their two match-ups, and I have to figure the Rangers offense tees up on somebody, at this point I'm thinking Sanchez.

It may be bold, and I'm pretty unsure about this one: Thanks to home-field advantage and their strong pitching staff, the Giants win the World Series in 6.

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