Well hello and welcome back to The Knurve, the blog that Peter Gammons calls, "the most intriguing thing I've ever read, this Kaplan kid is brilliant."
What a great regular season. I am extremely happy because my fantastic fantasy team took home the crown over its most hated rival. That is neither here nor there, but bragging rights are always fun to have. Let's get right to my picks for post-season awards:
AL MVP:
The AL MVP and the AL Cy Young aren't as clear-cut as the NL awards. There can be a case made for the monster seasons that the likes of Miguel Cabrera and Jose Bautista had, but when you're not on a playoff team, how valuable can you really be? Not to knock the incredible years those two put up, but it's hard for me to legitimize an MVP candidate on a team who didn't make the playoffs. That being said: it comes down to Carl Crawford and Josh Hamilton for me. It's hard to compare the two because they do relatively different things.
But when I look at the horrid performance by the Rangers in September, I have to say Hamilton is the AL MVP. The team looked lost without him. Seldom would I advocate giving an MVP to someone who missed the whole last month of the season (Joe Mauer missed the first month last year), but Hamilton put up monster numbers and almost single-handedly carried the Rangers into an easy playoff berth. The guy only hit .359 with 32 home runs and 100 runs batted in. The main question will be how healthy he is to help his lost Rangers find their way against the mighty Rays.
AL Cy Young
While I can't justify giving a hitter on a non-playoff team, I think the case can be made for a pitcher. The hapless Mariners offense was never enough to give Felix Hernandez the wins or recognition he deserved. I believe very strongly that he was the best pitcher in the majors this season, though. He was a work horse for the Mariners, tossing 249.2 innings. He gave up one, only one run in 26 innings pitched against the mighty Yankees this season. He gave up four earned runs in the whole month of August. He sports a 1.53 ERA since the All-Star break, while striking out over 100 batters in that time. The man was truly and purely dominant, and should be considered the Cy Young winner going away.
NL MVP
This is probably the most difficult award to hand out, but I can't see anybody who has been more valuable to his team than Joey Votto has been to the Reds this season. Sure, he has the fortune of playing in a stadium where lefties can almost bunt homers, but a closer look at the numbers shows that he hit way better on the road this season. He hit .297 at home and .349 on the road, and actually hit one more home run on the road than he did at home. So for those who think he's lucky to play in the Great American Small-Park, take another look at his dominance on the road. The man does it all. He has the benefit of a strong Reds line-up around him, but he's the best player on what I think is one of the best teams in the playoffs. I'm a believer in the Reds, and Joey Votto is the superstar face of that franchise. To think that he makes in a year what A-Rod makes in a week is pretty astounding, he's about to get paid.
NL Cy Young
I had a really tough time with this one. Just kidding. I didn't make Roy Halladay my first pick for no reason in my primary fantasy league. I wanted a guy who would eat a ton of innings, Roy did that. I wanted a guy who could strike guys out, Roy did that. I wanted a guy who strike out at least 200, Roy did that. I wanted a guy who could win a bunch of games, Roy did that. You could throw out Johnson or Wainwright, but neither had as complete a season as Halladay did. Johnson was injured, and even though a case could be made for Wainwright, the Cardinals just didn't help him out enough to legitimize choosing him over Halladay. I look forward to many continuing years of Roy Halladay dominance over the National League.
Playoff Predictions
Well, I guess I have to admit now that I didn't think the Phillies would get that hot or the Braves offense would go that cold. But it happens. I'm sorry to all the Philly fans who were offended by my lack of trust in the Phillies, but a look at the atrocious stretches that offense went through were hard to eradicate. While the Padres collapse was hard to watch, I think many people could have seen it coming. Even when the Padres were up 6 games on the Giants, I still believed the Giants had more offensive firepower and a comparable pitching staff. The Reds have been the model of consistency this season. The team has played solid baseball all season, and although they didn't have the strongest September, I think they prove a dangerous match-up with the Phils in the first round.
NL
Reds V. Phillies
I actually think this series will be a dogfight. There's a huge part of me that thinks the Reds win, but I lack the gumption to put them over the top. If the Reds can somehow manage to get to H2O then power to them, but the Phils took five of seven during the regular season. If there's a Division Series upset to be had, I honestly think it's this one, but I'm taking the Phillies in 4.
Giants V. Braves
This is going to be another great series. I was all over the Braves earlier in the year, but their starting pitching has shown some pretty big holes since the All-Star break. With top ace Tim Hudson struggling alongside his starting colleagues, I just don't see the Braves winning this series, especially given the way the Giants played in September. If the Braves offense hits like they've shown they can, then I'll take them, but I think the Giants pitching is too good. Giants in 5.
AL
Rays V. Rangers
Simply put, the Rangers don't have the pitching to compete with the Rays. If there's a sweep to be had in the divisional series, I think it's the Rays. They just have all the pieces in place to make a great run at the World Series. The Rangers offense was pretty bad in September, and nobody fears Cliff Lee quite the way they did when he was in Seattle. I don't know how healthy Josh Hamilton is, but the rest of that offense isn't as fearsome as it was in the first half. I'll take the Rays in 3.
Yankees V. Twins
I have zero, and I mean zero faith in a Yankees pitcher not named C.C. or Mariano. I think the Yankees are going to be a tough team to predict because of their terrible pitching and superb hitting. The Twins have been in this spot before and gotten crushed by the Yankees. As much as I think the Twins are capable of winning this series, I just don't think they have the rotation to outlast the Yankees. The Twinkies lineup is a lot less scary without a healthy Mauer and a Morneau in there. I think this series will be a lot closer than people think, but I think this is a case where the Yankees offense reigns supreme. Yankees in 5.
Championship Series
NL
Off the cuff, I think the Phil's Giants series is going to be phenomenal. The Giants and Phillies split the season series 3-3 and roughed up Halladay in the beginning of the season. The Giants have the better 4th option to stick into their rotation than do the Phillies, and I think it could come down to that. The Phillies do not play well in AT&T park, going 2-5 there in the past two seasons. I think the stronger 4th starter, coupled with the stronger bullpen and a pretty distinct advantage at home makes me say the Giants will take this one in 7. Sorry to all my Philly readers.
AL
In a sense, the whole season in the AL has led to this. I have been saying all year that the Rays are the most complete team in baseball, and I stick by that. What the Yankees will be able to get away with against the poor Rangers rotation and bullpen, they won't escape against the Rays. I see the offensive fire-power of the Yankees being somewhat stymied by a relatively experienced Rays pitching staff. I just can't see the Yankees getting away with what they call their starting rotation now. Hughes has been terrible, Pettitte could still be hurt, and the Yankees clearly don't trust Vazquez or Burnette at all. I think when push comes to shove, the Rays win this one in 6.
World Series Prediction
When the Rays face the Giants, I will be watching very closely. This series could have a game 7 written all over it, and I think it will. While the edge would go to the Giants pitching staff, I think the Rays offense could prove a bit too much. It'll be interesting to see how Joe Maddon would test the arm of Buster Posey, who threw out 23 of 52 runners, which is solid, but no team is faster than the Rays, and I think the spacious AT&T will help the Rays way more than it would the Phillies.
So, I wish an early congratulations to the Tampa Bay Rays for overcoming their historic futility to reach the pinnacle of baseball by beating the San Francisco Giants in an exciting 7 game series.
Let's get some discussion going, any comments, questions, concerns, leave a comment.....
Happy October!
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