So with my AL and NL breakdowns in; here are my playoff predictions:
AL:
East Rays
Central Twins
West Rangers
Wildcard Yankees
NL:
East Phillies
Central Reds
West Giants
Wildcard Padres
WORLD SERIES PREDICTION IN SEPTEMBER
Rays over Reds in 6.
Have a great week....
Sunday, August 29, 2010
NL Breakdown...
Sorry there was a bit of a delay between my NL and AL predictions, but here it is. I think this race is going to be the most intriguing. I still think that the World Series will go to the AL, but all three races in the NL are contested; a recipe for a delicious September.
I broke the AL down by the teams that I think can win the pennant. With the NL, I'm going to break it down by division.
West
You can look back at my earlier posts to see how I feel about the way baseball is played on the west coast and how they are pitcher-friendly parks with rotations and bullpen's built to keep scores below 4 runs. It is the depth of pitching and the fact that teams will HAVE to employ 4 man rotations (unlike what the Yankees did last year with Sabathia, Burnette, and Pettitte).
With this west race coming down to the Padres and the Giants, who are 1st and 5th in the NL respectively in team ERA, it's going to come down to the wire. While I realize that the Padres sit atop the west by a healthy 6 games, there are still a few reasons I think the Giants can win the west; they still have 7 head to head matchups with the Padres, and they have zero, yes, zero games against the Braves, Phillies, Cardinals or Reds. No games against playoff contenders the rest of the way and 7 head to head matchups sounds like a recipe for good things.
I think the Giants have a much better offense than the Padres, but the Padres have sat atop that division the whole year. The Padres DO have to play the Reds and Cardinals 6 times before the end of the year on top of playing the Giants 7 times, giving them one of the toughest remaining schedules in baseball. This is a place for bold predictions, and I'm going to make one right now: Giants win the west with their great pitching, but their offense is just a tad better than the Padres.
Central
I've been obsessing over the Reds all season and this race they've got going with the Cards. How could you hate a hot pennant race? Throw in an extremely intriguing triple crown race between Sirs Pujols and Votto, and you've got an interesting brew. I think the central will go to the Reds, and I think they will further pull away from the Cards. The Cards would have the perfect 4 man rotation for the playoffs between Wainwright, Carpenter, Garcia, and Westbrook, but I just think the Reds offense is so much more well rounded.
However, I think Brandon Phillips' injury is something to be concerned about. If he doesn't come back then I think things will get a little tighter down the stretch, especially considering the Cards have 6 games left to beat up on the Pirates. It's going to be an exciting finish in the Central, but at this point I feel more confident that the Giants can erase a 6 game deficit in the West than the Cards can erase a 4 game deficit in the Central.
East
Like the Red Sox, the Phils have been dealt injury blow after injury blow, but here we are, still in the thick of what's going to be an incredible September. It doesn't take much to convince you that this is the most intriguing division race in September.
The Braves are doing this year what they did in all the 90's: play solid baseball, and that's exactly what they're doing in Bobby Cox's last season. From their incredible rotation to their shut down bullpen to their solid all-around contributors on offense, this team appears to be the most well-rounded coming down the stretch. It's hard to dislike the Phillies though. A solid, but still under-performing offense, is backed by 3 of the bestg starters in baseball. I think the biggest question marks for the Phils are the reason they will NOT win the East. Their offense has just shown to be too anemic at times; not able to establish any sort of flow or consistency at all this year. Couple that with a bullpen that has few people in Philadelphia confident, and you don't have a team that can go far in October.
That being said, I think the wildcard is going to come down to the Padres and the Phillies, and I think the Phillies will be golfing in Florida come October. This team has done some pretty crazy things in September, but I just don't think this is the year.
I broke the AL down by the teams that I think can win the pennant. With the NL, I'm going to break it down by division.
West
You can look back at my earlier posts to see how I feel about the way baseball is played on the west coast and how they are pitcher-friendly parks with rotations and bullpen's built to keep scores below 4 runs. It is the depth of pitching and the fact that teams will HAVE to employ 4 man rotations (unlike what the Yankees did last year with Sabathia, Burnette, and Pettitte).
With this west race coming down to the Padres and the Giants, who are 1st and 5th in the NL respectively in team ERA, it's going to come down to the wire. While I realize that the Padres sit atop the west by a healthy 6 games, there are still a few reasons I think the Giants can win the west; they still have 7 head to head matchups with the Padres, and they have zero, yes, zero games against the Braves, Phillies, Cardinals or Reds. No games against playoff contenders the rest of the way and 7 head to head matchups sounds like a recipe for good things.
I think the Giants have a much better offense than the Padres, but the Padres have sat atop that division the whole year. The Padres DO have to play the Reds and Cardinals 6 times before the end of the year on top of playing the Giants 7 times, giving them one of the toughest remaining schedules in baseball. This is a place for bold predictions, and I'm going to make one right now: Giants win the west with their great pitching, but their offense is just a tad better than the Padres.
Central
I've been obsessing over the Reds all season and this race they've got going with the Cards. How could you hate a hot pennant race? Throw in an extremely intriguing triple crown race between Sirs Pujols and Votto, and you've got an interesting brew. I think the central will go to the Reds, and I think they will further pull away from the Cards. The Cards would have the perfect 4 man rotation for the playoffs between Wainwright, Carpenter, Garcia, and Westbrook, but I just think the Reds offense is so much more well rounded.
However, I think Brandon Phillips' injury is something to be concerned about. If he doesn't come back then I think things will get a little tighter down the stretch, especially considering the Cards have 6 games left to beat up on the Pirates. It's going to be an exciting finish in the Central, but at this point I feel more confident that the Giants can erase a 6 game deficit in the West than the Cards can erase a 4 game deficit in the Central.
East
Like the Red Sox, the Phils have been dealt injury blow after injury blow, but here we are, still in the thick of what's going to be an incredible September. It doesn't take much to convince you that this is the most intriguing division race in September.
The Braves are doing this year what they did in all the 90's: play solid baseball, and that's exactly what they're doing in Bobby Cox's last season. From their incredible rotation to their shut down bullpen to their solid all-around contributors on offense, this team appears to be the most well-rounded coming down the stretch. It's hard to dislike the Phillies though. A solid, but still under-performing offense, is backed by 3 of the bestg starters in baseball. I think the biggest question marks for the Phils are the reason they will NOT win the East. Their offense has just shown to be too anemic at times; not able to establish any sort of flow or consistency at all this year. Couple that with a bullpen that has few people in Philadelphia confident, and you don't have a team that can go far in October.
That being said, I think the wildcard is going to come down to the Padres and the Phillies, and I think the Phillies will be golfing in Florida come October. This team has done some pretty crazy things in September, but I just don't think this is the year.
Monday, August 16, 2010
I'm Back...
Hello Americans. I'm sorry it's been a while since I've written. I just finished up my internship, which was great, and now I'm home for a bit so I have more time to write.
I apologize for not having the gumption to stick with it, but I just didn't have the time. However, I am going to jump straight to the good stuff right now as though I have been blogging this whole time.
I can't tell you how excited I am for these last 6 weeks of the season. I think the AL playoff race is pretty much set. Considering how irrelevant the AL Central is, I am very excited to see the Yankees, Rays, and Rangers duke it out in October. All kidding aside, I think the AL Central race will be a fun one to track, but none of those teams seem as sexy as the Yankees/Rays/Rangers.
There are some pretty consistent performers on the White Sox and Twins with plenty of playoff experience, and there are some really fantasy relevant players on both teams that have done a lot for fantasy rosters. But, like their respective teams, none of those players are very sexy. The injury to Justin Morneau will also play a large role in this race. The Twins have been managing just fine, how their offense has scored the 3rd most runs in the majors is beyond me, but I just don't see a world series in their future. I do think they will edge out the ChiSox for the AL Central.
Now, moving on to the 3 teams that can actually win the World Series from the American League:
Yankees:
This lineup is the best in baseball from top to bottom. Their two weak links on offense have been Derek Jeter and Curtis Granderson, but they both haven't been completely terrible. The rest of that offense has been ridiculous. Teixeira and A-Rod have really turned it on. Nick Swisher has gone from random schmo to All-Star, and Jorge Posada is on pace for a solid 20-60 campaign. Posada's 13 home runs is 5th among major league catchers.
I do see reason for concern with the Yankees pitching staff. Other than Sabathia, I don't think I trust Vazquez or Burnett to win games in October. Both of them have ERA's nearing 4.5 in the past month. With Hughes rules already slightly taking shape, I think there's reason for concern for the Yankees pitching staff. Sure their stupendous offense can easily carry them to a second consecutive championship, but when you've traded for Kerry Wood to help anchor your bullpen I don't think that's necessarily a good thing. The reason the starting pitching is so important is because they will not be able to get away with their 3 pitcher system that they employed in October last year. Major Leauge Baseball eliminated 3 October off-days to quicken up the playoffs and partially to prevent teams from getting away with what the Yanks did with Pettitte, Sabathia, and Burnett last year.
Rays:
Speaking of sexy. I think everything about this Rays offsense is sexy. They run- the Rays lead the majors in steals.... BY 31 STOLEN BASES.... and they get on base, their .338 OBP is 5th in the A.L. Joe Maddon is a man who knows how to manufacture runs and get the most out of what he's got on offense. There's no way a Ben Zobrist, Sean Rodriguez, or Matt Joyce would be any good in another manager's system where they don't run or don't draw walks. Plate discipline and the ability to manufacture runs definitely helps win championships.
I think their pitcting has "it". David Price is the real deal, Matt Garza has had a phenomenal year, Jeff Niemann has also had his best year of his career yet, and the Rays have one of the best young pitchers in baseball in Jeremy Hellickson tearing it up for them. I am not even mentioning James Sheilds and Wade Davis, guys who have shown what their upside can be, but haven't quite put it all together. Assuming Niemann can get healthy, that is an extremely dangerous pitching staff. Couple that with having the best middle reliever in baseball, Joaqin Benoit. Oh, their other three relievers have ERA's below 3 and WHIP's below 1.08. I'm not sure if you can tell, but I love this Rays team.
Texas:
This team is just running away with AL West. I think that's equally a function of the division being terrible and this team being very good. Their offense has most certainly cooled off here in the past month, 8th in the AL in runs (17th in the majors). But when their offense has slowed, their pitching has been amazing. Cliff Lee's K/BB rate is one of the most dominating statistics of this season. He strikes out almost 15 guys for every one, ONE, uno, EIN, 1, batter than he walks. That's just stupid good. With him anchoring that pitching staff of Tommy Hunter, Colby Lewis, and C.J. Wilson, I think that the starters can really make some noise. I think the fact that Hunter, Lewis and Wilson are so inexperienced makes me believe that they won't be there at the end, but this team is so much fun to watch. I don't count the Rangers out by any means because they can turn it on at any time, but I don't see them having the firepower to make serious noise in the AL pennant race.
That's it for tonight, welcome back to the blog. My thoughts on the NL will be coming tomorrow.
Shalom.
I apologize for not having the gumption to stick with it, but I just didn't have the time. However, I am going to jump straight to the good stuff right now as though I have been blogging this whole time.
I can't tell you how excited I am for these last 6 weeks of the season. I think the AL playoff race is pretty much set. Considering how irrelevant the AL Central is, I am very excited to see the Yankees, Rays, and Rangers duke it out in October. All kidding aside, I think the AL Central race will be a fun one to track, but none of those teams seem as sexy as the Yankees/Rays/Rangers.
There are some pretty consistent performers on the White Sox and Twins with plenty of playoff experience, and there are some really fantasy relevant players on both teams that have done a lot for fantasy rosters. But, like their respective teams, none of those players are very sexy. The injury to Justin Morneau will also play a large role in this race. The Twins have been managing just fine, how their offense has scored the 3rd most runs in the majors is beyond me, but I just don't see a world series in their future. I do think they will edge out the ChiSox for the AL Central.
Now, moving on to the 3 teams that can actually win the World Series from the American League:
Yankees:
This lineup is the best in baseball from top to bottom. Their two weak links on offense have been Derek Jeter and Curtis Granderson, but they both haven't been completely terrible. The rest of that offense has been ridiculous. Teixeira and A-Rod have really turned it on. Nick Swisher has gone from random schmo to All-Star, and Jorge Posada is on pace for a solid 20-60 campaign. Posada's 13 home runs is 5th among major league catchers.
I do see reason for concern with the Yankees pitching staff. Other than Sabathia, I don't think I trust Vazquez or Burnett to win games in October. Both of them have ERA's nearing 4.5 in the past month. With Hughes rules already slightly taking shape, I think there's reason for concern for the Yankees pitching staff. Sure their stupendous offense can easily carry them to a second consecutive championship, but when you've traded for Kerry Wood to help anchor your bullpen I don't think that's necessarily a good thing. The reason the starting pitching is so important is because they will not be able to get away with their 3 pitcher system that they employed in October last year. Major Leauge Baseball eliminated 3 October off-days to quicken up the playoffs and partially to prevent teams from getting away with what the Yanks did with Pettitte, Sabathia, and Burnett last year.
Rays:
Speaking of sexy. I think everything about this Rays offsense is sexy. They run- the Rays lead the majors in steals.... BY 31 STOLEN BASES.... and they get on base, their .338 OBP is 5th in the A.L. Joe Maddon is a man who knows how to manufacture runs and get the most out of what he's got on offense. There's no way a Ben Zobrist, Sean Rodriguez, or Matt Joyce would be any good in another manager's system where they don't run or don't draw walks. Plate discipline and the ability to manufacture runs definitely helps win championships.
I think their pitcting has "it". David Price is the real deal, Matt Garza has had a phenomenal year, Jeff Niemann has also had his best year of his career yet, and the Rays have one of the best young pitchers in baseball in Jeremy Hellickson tearing it up for them. I am not even mentioning James Sheilds and Wade Davis, guys who have shown what their upside can be, but haven't quite put it all together. Assuming Niemann can get healthy, that is an extremely dangerous pitching staff. Couple that with having the best middle reliever in baseball, Joaqin Benoit. Oh, their other three relievers have ERA's below 3 and WHIP's below 1.08. I'm not sure if you can tell, but I love this Rays team.
Texas:
This team is just running away with AL West. I think that's equally a function of the division being terrible and this team being very good. Their offense has most certainly cooled off here in the past month, 8th in the AL in runs (17th in the majors). But when their offense has slowed, their pitching has been amazing. Cliff Lee's K/BB rate is one of the most dominating statistics of this season. He strikes out almost 15 guys for every one, ONE, uno, EIN, 1, batter than he walks. That's just stupid good. With him anchoring that pitching staff of Tommy Hunter, Colby Lewis, and C.J. Wilson, I think that the starters can really make some noise. I think the fact that Hunter, Lewis and Wilson are so inexperienced makes me believe that they won't be there at the end, but this team is so much fun to watch. I don't count the Rangers out by any means because they can turn it on at any time, but I don't see them having the firepower to make serious noise in the AL pennant race.
That's it for tonight, welcome back to the blog. My thoughts on the NL will be coming tomorrow.
Shalom.
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